LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Complicated. That would be the best word to describe the long term period. All attention turns to Beryl as the storm begins its final approach the the southern/central Texas coast near sunrise Monday.
As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm remains a Category 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 85mph, but is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before emerging out over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. The forecast continues to trend further to the north and east with Beryl as it defies the odds on intensity guidance in the face of moderate to strong shear from a TUTT low situated over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Confidence continues to increase in the forecast path for Beryl, but uncertainty still exists, especially within the last 12-24 hours before landfall.

The Subtropical High will already be sliding eastward into the southeastern CONUS at the start of the long term period.
Additionally, an unusually strong trough for early July standards, some 1-2 sigma below the mean will dig further south into the Southern Plains late Sunday into Monday, and act to pull Beryl northward on approach to the Texas coast. Exactly when Beryl takes this jog to the north is the greatest question mark at the moment.
The longer Beryl remains over the bath water of the Gulf, the stronger it is likely to get as vertical shear starts to weaken over the next 24 hours. For now, the latest forecast calls for Beryl to be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, but that could continue to shift further north if current trends continue. Tropical wind hazards are looking increasingly likely, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. With regard to the heavy rainfall threat, any locations that are on the eastern side of the circulation will see the heaviest rains, with the latest 12Z GEFS and 06Z ECMWF Ens coming into slightly better agreement on the placement of the heaviest precip, with a swath of perhaps 2-4" with locally higher amounts, particularly over the Coastal Plains. A localized tornado threat may also materialize as Beryl makes landfall, mainly in the right front quadrant. For now, the Storm Prediction Center does not have any areas highlighted for a tornado threat Monday or Tuesday, but would expect as confidence increases in the track of Beryl, we'll get placed in some sort of risk area.
With regard to the flooding rain threat, WPC places a good chunk of the CWA in a level 2 of 4 risk (Slight) for excessive rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. We'll have to see how things play out, but if Beryl comes in weaker, it could get caught in no-man's land and take some time to exit our coverage area. That would result in continued rounds of rainfall through Wednesday.

Once Beryl is out of the picture, things remain rather active, at least by July standards. Daily rain chances look to continue as high PWATs between 1.5-2" remain in play over the EWX coverage area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated showers and convection will be possible across the Hill Country this afternoon as a front, currently near Stephenville to San Angelo, slides southward with help from any associated outflow boundaries. However, activity should stay to the north of the TAF sites through tonight. VFR flight conditions persist towards and through this evening at all TAF sites. Some low MVFR stratus will establish at KAUS beyond 11Z Saturday morning while VFR conditions with patchy scattered low clouds at the remaining TAF sites. The frontal boundary and any associated outflow continues sliding southward into Saturday and should result in scattered convection across the region. Have added PROB30s for KAUS and KSAT through Saturday afternoon as a result. Winds remain light, generally of around 12 knots, or less. The winds may shift and become variable at times pending the position of the front and with any of the outflow boundaries.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 78 97 76 97 / 20 40 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 96 75 96 / 10 40 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 97 75 97 / 10 40 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 93 74 95 / 20 40 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 101 79 102 / 10 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 94 75 95 / 20 40 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 98 75 98 / 10 30 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 96 74 96 / 10 40 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 95 76 95 / 10 40 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 10 30 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.