NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KEWX 050021 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 721 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to the west of the CWA, with some sneaking into the eastern portion of the Coastal Plains this afternoon. Some additional showers or isolated thunderstorms will still be possible later this afternoon and early evening, mainly over the Hill Country and areas east. Any activity should quiet after sunset. The main cold front arrives to our north overnight, moving into northern South-Central Texas early Thursday morning. Rain amounts have trended down with this forecast update, with storm total amounts generally around 0.25-1.25 inches. Locally higher amounts will be possible with any storm training, and some urban and small stream flooding is still possible. WPC continues a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rain across our area.
Precipitation coverage will decrease after the frontal passage in the afternoon hours Thursday, although some stronger activity may linger over the Rio Grande. By the evening, most of the area will be dry although some showers remain possible in the southern reaches of the CWA. Lows tonight remain elevated with clouds building over the area this evening, mainly around the upper 60s to mid 70s. These clouds linger through the day tomorrow with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s in the north to the mid 80s and low 90s further south.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Tomorrow's front will be long gone by the time sunrise rolls around on Friday. A low chance for an isolated shower will remain in the forecast along the Rio Grande Friday and Friday night, but we generally expect a dry, cooler weekend forecast! Friday, highs will still be in the 80s, with lower but still elevated dew points in the 50s and 60s. North to Northeast flow will be in place, increasing late Friday night as a secondary push of cool, dry air is ushered in by approaching sfc high pressure. Lows will dip into the upper 50s in the Hill Country by Saturday morning, with daytime highs in the 70s for most locations! Look for some brisk NE winds Saturday morning at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, but these should diminish through the afternoon and go light to calm by Sunday morning.

As a result of the drier air, clearing skies, and light winds, Sunday morning low temperatures will be in the 50s for most areas, with some upper 40s in low-lying portions of the Hill Country. May feel downright chilly to some! But we'll start a warming trend from there, as ridging builds over the western CONUS, the sfc high center shifts east, and southerly flow is re-established Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, highs will be right back into the mid and upper 80s for most areas outside the Hill Country. Still a lot of uncertainty in the general weather pattern beyond that. Could see a but of an omega block set up with the northern stream flow, and there is at least some potential for a plume of Pacific moisture to come across Mexico towards the middle of the week. However, for now ensembles suggest similar or even better chances of remaining dry locally.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Strong storms may get close to DRT as the weaken and dissipate after moving east this evening. Otherwise, look for a mostly tranquil period of weather through tonight. By around 11Z the much anticipated cold front and near widespread coverage of rainfall should arrive near AUS and impact our four TAF sites through around 18Z. The complex of strong to severe storms ongoing over North Texas should hold together through the night and become weaker as the front rolls through. Some brief heavy downpours could pull VSBYs down to below a mile and push gusts to 30 knots, but will save that level of specificity for later updates when we can pin it down to the hour.
With the system expected to produce a fair amount of precipitation, we'll assume the post frontal environment will produce a few hours of MVFR cigs before lifting to VFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 83 67 85 / 70 90 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 83 68 84 / 70 90 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 86 69 86 / 70 90 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 81 66 83 / 90 90 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 88 71 88 / 60 80 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 82 67 83 / 90 90 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 85 68 85 / 60 90 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 84 67 85 / 70 90 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 83 69 83 / 60 90 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 85 71 85 / 70 90 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 87 72 87 / 60 90 30 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,