Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Climax, MI
July 3, 2024 5:23 AM EDT (09:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 9:23 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 6:50 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning - .
Early this morning - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Independence day - Southwest winds around 5 knots veering northwest late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves less than 1 foot.
Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 030740 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chance of Passing Showers Today Then Clearing Clouds
- Warm and Partly Sunny Independence Day
- Risk for a Period of Strong Storms Friday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
- Chance of Passing Showers Today Then Clearing Clouds
A weak cold front passing through the area this morning, along with remnant low-level moisture and meager elevated instability, may touch off a few showers (slight chance of isolated thunderstorm).
By late in the morning, the chance will shift south and east of Grand Rapids toward Jackson. Most of the clouds are likely to clear away from NW to SE this afternoon, and deeper mixing will help temperatures climb higher than they were yesterday.
- Warm and Partly Sunny Independence Day
In between upper-level shortwave troughs on the 4th of July, there will be a diffuse surface pressure field resulting in light winds, while temperatures climb to slightly warmer than normal. The maximum heat index should stay below 90. Skies will be partly cloudy as high clouds stream in from convection to our west and a few cumulus clouds may bubble up. Some models develop isolated showers late in the day but the chance is about 10 percent for any given spot.
- Risk for a Period of Strong Storms Friday
Models continue to advertise a closed 500 mb low tracking through Lower MI during the afternoon. A stronger mid level jet streak on the south side of this system pivots through the CWA enhancing the deep layer shear. Surface instability plots show the atmosphere destabilizing during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
Generally the models indicate that scattered convection will develop in the late morning to early afternoon hours before shifting the action east of the CWA by mid afternoon. The deep layer shear projections support organized convection, however the instability is shown to be somewhat limited. Ensemble surface based CAPE projections are mostly under 1000 J/kg which could be a limiting factor for the amount and strength of any convection that does develop. Close monitoring will be needed as we get closer to this period. For now, we will continue to feature relatively high POP's for the late morning into the afternoon period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms stretched from western IL through northern Lower MI. The instability was decreasing as these showers were advancing east into the TAF sites here in southwest Lower MI. Based on the radar trends and latest model data, we will keep thunder out of the TAF forecasts for the remainder of the night, despite some slight instability moving in. Low level moisture will be on the increase later tonight and more so for Wednesday morning. Conditions are likely to go down to MVFR and even a period of IFR for many of the TAF sites. A cold front currently in MN will drop down into the TAF sites here in MI Wednesday morning, weakening as it does. That feature will likely generate some renewed showers/convection Wednesday morning but based off of the limited instability, the thunder risk at any particular TAF sites remains low. We will need to monitor trends though. Drier air filters in behind the front for Wednesday afternoon and that will likely support the cloud bases rising with the clouds eventually scattering out.
MARINE
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
This forecast is lower than usual confidence for small craft and swimming hazards this morning, but at the very least it's likely that moderate swim risk will be present along many beaches, with a fair enough possibility for high swim risk to issue a Beach Hazards Statement through noon.
Ongoing Small Craft Advisory for gusts over 22 knots will be extended later into the morning as the wave field responds to briefly stronger southwesterly winds anticipated over the next few hours and lingers for a few more hours after the winds relax. Models have been varied in their solutions for early this morning regarding where, how strong, and for how long the stronger southwesterly surface winds will be. Stronger winds are present just 1000 feet above the lake, but it seems they will not fully mix down without the help of rain falling into the dry air at 1000 feet and cooling it down in tandem with the passing cold front. Even the most aggressive models relax the winds substantially no later than 8 or 9 AM, so any waves or currents hazardous enough for boats or swimmers should be diminishing by noon if not earlier.
Independence Day will feature light winds and waves 1 foot or less.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LMZ845>849.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Chance of Passing Showers Today Then Clearing Clouds
- Warm and Partly Sunny Independence Day
- Risk for a Period of Strong Storms Friday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
- Chance of Passing Showers Today Then Clearing Clouds
A weak cold front passing through the area this morning, along with remnant low-level moisture and meager elevated instability, may touch off a few showers (slight chance of isolated thunderstorm).
By late in the morning, the chance will shift south and east of Grand Rapids toward Jackson. Most of the clouds are likely to clear away from NW to SE this afternoon, and deeper mixing will help temperatures climb higher than they were yesterday.
- Warm and Partly Sunny Independence Day
In between upper-level shortwave troughs on the 4th of July, there will be a diffuse surface pressure field resulting in light winds, while temperatures climb to slightly warmer than normal. The maximum heat index should stay below 90. Skies will be partly cloudy as high clouds stream in from convection to our west and a few cumulus clouds may bubble up. Some models develop isolated showers late in the day but the chance is about 10 percent for any given spot.
- Risk for a Period of Strong Storms Friday
Models continue to advertise a closed 500 mb low tracking through Lower MI during the afternoon. A stronger mid level jet streak on the south side of this system pivots through the CWA enhancing the deep layer shear. Surface instability plots show the atmosphere destabilizing during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
Generally the models indicate that scattered convection will develop in the late morning to early afternoon hours before shifting the action east of the CWA by mid afternoon. The deep layer shear projections support organized convection, however the instability is shown to be somewhat limited. Ensemble surface based CAPE projections are mostly under 1000 J/kg which could be a limiting factor for the amount and strength of any convection that does develop. Close monitoring will be needed as we get closer to this period. For now, we will continue to feature relatively high POP's for the late morning into the afternoon period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms stretched from western IL through northern Lower MI. The instability was decreasing as these showers were advancing east into the TAF sites here in southwest Lower MI. Based on the radar trends and latest model data, we will keep thunder out of the TAF forecasts for the remainder of the night, despite some slight instability moving in. Low level moisture will be on the increase later tonight and more so for Wednesday morning. Conditions are likely to go down to MVFR and even a period of IFR for many of the TAF sites. A cold front currently in MN will drop down into the TAF sites here in MI Wednesday morning, weakening as it does. That feature will likely generate some renewed showers/convection Wednesday morning but based off of the limited instability, the thunder risk at any particular TAF sites remains low. We will need to monitor trends though. Drier air filters in behind the front for Wednesday afternoon and that will likely support the cloud bases rising with the clouds eventually scattering out.
MARINE
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
This forecast is lower than usual confidence for small craft and swimming hazards this morning, but at the very least it's likely that moderate swim risk will be present along many beaches, with a fair enough possibility for high swim risk to issue a Beach Hazards Statement through noon.
Ongoing Small Craft Advisory for gusts over 22 knots will be extended later into the morning as the wave field responds to briefly stronger southwesterly winds anticipated over the next few hours and lingers for a few more hours after the winds relax. Models have been varied in their solutions for early this morning regarding where, how strong, and for how long the stronger southwesterly surface winds will be. Stronger winds are present just 1000 feet above the lake, but it seems they will not fully mix down without the help of rain falling into the dry air at 1000 feet and cooling it down in tandem with the passing cold front. Even the most aggressive models relax the winds substantially no later than 8 or 9 AM, so any waves or currents hazardous enough for boats or swimmers should be diminishing by noon if not earlier.
Independence Day will feature light winds and waves 1 foot or less.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until noon EDT today for MIZ037-043-050- 056-064.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ844.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for LMZ845>849.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KAZO
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAZO
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KAZO
Wind History graph: AZO
(wind in knots)
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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