Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Friendsville, PA
July 3, 2024 5:20 AM EDT (09:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM Moonset 6:09 PM |
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 030701 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 301 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected today. A weakening front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast PA and the Catskills.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
300 AM Update...
High pressure will continue to drift east of the region today but quiet conditions are expected through most of the daytime hours.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s today. While skies will start out mostly sunny, sky cover will increase from the northwest late tonight as a front approaches the region. The pressure gradient tightens up ahead of this front, so winds will be quite breezy today. Peak gusts of 25+ mph will be possible.
Showers will begin to move into the region late today and overnight as the front drops south. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but instability will be quite limited despite having some shear. Heavy rain showers will certainly be possible as PWATs will be between 1.75 and 2 inches. Given the drier conditions in recent days, hydro issues seem unlikely. WPC also seems to agree as we no longer are in an outlook for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be fairly mild though, only falling into the 60s.
Showers will linger into Independence Day as the front continues to move through. With a shortwave moving in from the west, showers may get some additional support across portions of NEPA and the Catskills. Some model guidance does have at least 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse rates will not be steep though. While a isolated strong storm or two could be possible in the afternoon, there does not seem to be enough support for severe storms. Highs are once again forecasted to be in the 80s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
250 AM Update...
Thursday night will have weak ridging trying to build in with gradually increasing 500 mb heights though there is no definitive ridge axis. Many of the global models have a stalled surface front across central PA extending into the mid Atlantic that could have showers and thunderstorms through the night so chances of precipitation were kept in NEPA but removed north of the Southern Tier.
Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day Friday. Better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight with better lift as another warm front moves in with better chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any training could lead to localized flash flooding potential Friday night into Saturday morning.
The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a front dragging through NY and PA. Timing of the front passage is still a little uncertain but most of the overnight models had the front through by mid to late morning Saturday keeping the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of I-81 where there is time to get more instability to build. The front will mainly advecting drier air so there is not expected to be much of a temperature drop but likely an increase in winds and falling dew points in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
250 AM Update...
The long term is looking hot and humid as a long wave trough remains across the northern plains with the east coast remaining on the west side of a ridge. SW flow will continue to advect in the warm humid air with frequent embedded shortwaves bringing frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. Being on the edge of the ridge, the 250 mb jet stream will be close by and mean 0-6 km shear is 20 to 40 knots Sunday into early next week.
Similar to last week, there is potential for a few stronger thunderstorms each day with the heat and humidity leading to instability developing with day time heating.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will keep conditions at VFR throughout this TAF period. Winds will become stronger during the daytime hours today with peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts at the NY terminals but then become calmer at most terminals after 00z tonight. A front approaches the region with rain tonight. This was left out of the TAFs for now as it moves in just prior to 06z.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 301 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Breezy, warm, and dry conditions are expected today. A weakening front will move through the region tonight into Thursday morning bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible again for Independence Day, but coverage will be limited to Northeast PA and the Catskills.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
300 AM Update...
High pressure will continue to drift east of the region today but quiet conditions are expected through most of the daytime hours.
Temperatures will climb into the 80s today. While skies will start out mostly sunny, sky cover will increase from the northwest late tonight as a front approaches the region. The pressure gradient tightens up ahead of this front, so winds will be quite breezy today. Peak gusts of 25+ mph will be possible.
Showers will begin to move into the region late today and overnight as the front drops south. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out but instability will be quite limited despite having some shear. Heavy rain showers will certainly be possible as PWATs will be between 1.75 and 2 inches. Given the drier conditions in recent days, hydro issues seem unlikely. WPC also seems to agree as we no longer are in an outlook for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be fairly mild though, only falling into the 60s.
Showers will linger into Independence Day as the front continues to move through. With a shortwave moving in from the west, showers may get some additional support across portions of NEPA and the Catskills. Some model guidance does have at least 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 to 35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. Lapse rates will not be steep though. While a isolated strong storm or two could be possible in the afternoon, there does not seem to be enough support for severe storms. Highs are once again forecasted to be in the 80s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
250 AM Update...
Thursday night will have weak ridging trying to build in with gradually increasing 500 mb heights though there is no definitive ridge axis. Many of the global models have a stalled surface front across central PA extending into the mid Atlantic that could have showers and thunderstorms through the night so chances of precipitation were kept in NEPA but removed north of the Southern Tier.
Friday a surface low in the western Great Lakes deepens and moves east with a warm front lifting into the region. The warm air advection looks weak initially so despite some lift, it does not look like enough forcing is in place to get much more than a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms going during the day Friday. Better dynamics move in Friday evening and overnight with better lift as another warm front moves in with better chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear looks to be good overnight with near 50 knots of 0-6 km shear but forecast soundings show stable air near the surface and elevated CAPE staying below 1000 J/kg with a low equilibrium level so severe thunderstorms are unlikely overnight. Precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches and could approach 2 inches so heavy rainfall will be likely with showers and thunderstorms that do develop. Storm motions will be 20 to 30 knots so that will limit residence time of the higher rain rates but any training could lead to localized flash flooding potential Friday night into Saturday morning.
The surface low passes north of the Region Saturday with a front dragging through NY and PA. Timing of the front passage is still a little uncertain but most of the overnight models had the front through by mid to late morning Saturday keeping the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of I-81 where there is time to get more instability to build. The front will mainly advecting drier air so there is not expected to be much of a temperature drop but likely an increase in winds and falling dew points in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
250 AM Update...
The long term is looking hot and humid as a long wave trough remains across the northern plains with the east coast remaining on the west side of a ridge. SW flow will continue to advect in the warm humid air with frequent embedded shortwaves bringing frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. Being on the edge of the ridge, the 250 mb jet stream will be close by and mean 0-6 km shear is 20 to 40 knots Sunday into early next week.
Similar to last week, there is potential for a few stronger thunderstorms each day with the heat and humidity leading to instability developing with day time heating.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will keep conditions at VFR throughout this TAF period. Winds will become stronger during the daytime hours today with peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts at the NY terminals but then become calmer at most terminals after 00z tonight. A front approaches the region with rain tonight. This was left out of the TAFs for now as it moves in just prior to 06z.
Outlook...
Wednesday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBGM
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBGM
Wind History graph: BGM
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Binghamton, NY,
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