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FXUS64 KBMX 011925 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

This afternoon.

A longwave trough is over the Deep South while expansive surface high pressure was centered off the North Carolina Coast and a stationary front extended from the Mid-South Region southeast across our southwest counties and into the Western Florida Panhandle. Waves of showers and some thunderstorms continue to move east-northeast across the area with additional development occurring across portions of East-Central Mississippi.

Expect mostly cloudy skies areawide this afternoon with continued waves of showers with some thunderstorms. There remains a small risk of a strong to severe storm capable of producing damaging winds, but this risk is conditional and has been trimmed to only include areas generally west of Interstate 65. Winds will remain from the southeast from 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 70s far north to the low 80s far southwest.

Tonight.

While the longwave trough moves east of the area overnight, an unsettled zonal flow pattern is left in its wake, with a few shortwave disturbances progged to continue to move east over the area. Additionally, the diffuse surface boundary will persist across the area, slowly moving to the northeast. The result will be lingering clouds with continued chances for scattered showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms overnight. The better chances for activity will be across the eastern half of the forecast area with slightly lower PoPs to the far northwest. There will be some potential for some patchy fog to develop across portions of the area before sunrise Sunday if winds decrease enough and if there are some breaks in the cloud cover. Winds will be light from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s southwest.

Sunday.

More mid-level shortwaves will move over the area on Sunday while some height rises occur over the Southern Plains through the day.
The diffuse boundary will lose further definition as it continues to lift northeast toward Eastern Tennessee. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with continued shower activity and a few thunderstorms with the better chances across the southeast portion of the forecast area. Winds will be from the south- southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and southwest.

05

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

No big changes from the previous forecast as the overall pattern remains the same. Even better rain chances will be in place next weekend, so stay stay tuned over the next few days to discuss the impacts to the area.

16

Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Monday through Friday.

High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we'll need to watch this system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday.

25/Owen

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Clouds will linger over much of the area with continued chances for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Expect chances for showers to persist overnight with best potential across the eastern northern sites and the southern sites with lowest chance at TCL. Some reduction in visibility will be possible, especially across portions of the northern terminal locations overnight, especially if there are any substantial breaks in the cloud cover. Isolated showers with some thunderstorms are again forecast on Sunday with the better chances across the eastern northern sites and both southern terminals.
Thunderstorm potential is too low to include at any terminal location through this cycle.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Rain chances remain near or above 30 percent for Sunday and become more isolated on Monday. Winds will become more southerly tonight into Sunday. RH values will remain above 50 through Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 63 83 63 89 / 70 40 20 20 Anniston 64 83 64 89 / 80 40 20 20 Birmingham 66 83 67 89 / 70 40 20 20 Tuscaloosa 68 86 67 89 / 60 30 10 20 Calera 65 84 66 89 / 70 40 20 20 Auburn 65 82 66 86 / 80 50 30 20 Montgomery 66 84 67 89 / 80 50 20 20 Troy 65 84 66 89 / 80 60 20 20

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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