Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vincent, AL
July 3, 2024 4:20 AM CDT (09:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM Moonset 6:21 PM |
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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FXUS64 KBMX 030816 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Through the 4th of July, the heat and humidity will have to be dealt with as we approach dangerous heat levels for a large portion of Central Alabama. While temperatures are cooler than last week's furnace blast, the dewpoints are higher so the apparent temperature, or feels like temperature, will be just as hot. There could be some showers/storms around, but just a brief reprieve from the heat. Most of the showers and storms that develop on the 4th should dissipate by sunset. Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s both afternoons, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. As for the Heat Advisory, expanding a few counties in the southeast for today and then expanded in the northeast on Thursday. We do have 4 counties that are not in the advisory for today or Wednesday in the east. This counties typically have a little bit of a cooler tendency and also represents the higher elevation zones in our forecast area.
16
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Key messages:
- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday. A couple strong storms with gusty winds are possible. There is uncertainty as to whether heat indices will reach 105 degrees depending on how quickly storms develop.
- Some drier air may push into northern portions of Central Alabama over the weekend. Otherwise, a wetter pattern is expected next week with heat indices decreasing to just below 105 degrees.
Subtropical ridging will weaken and become centered near the Southeast Atlantic Coast through much of the period, while troughing amplifies over the Central CONUS downstream of a strong ridge over California. A seasonally strong shortwave will be moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday along with an associated surface low. An associated cold front will reach the Mid-South by Friday morning. Any lingering showers and storms at sunset Thursday night should quickly diminish, but it seems prudent to mention slight chance PoPs during the evening outdoor activities. Convection will remain ongoing ahead of the front late Thursday night with a slight chance that any convection makes it into our northern counties during the overnight hours. The front will be approaching from the northwest Friday while a pre-frontal trough may develop further south over Central Alabama. Westerlies along the base of the trough will begin to extend down into North Alabama. Forcing from these features and any boundaries from Thursday night's convection along with PWATs above 2 inches will result in numerous to widespread showers and storms developing by Friday afternoon. Some guidance suggests an MCS could develop as early as Friday morning but this remains uncertain. 0-6km bulk shear around 15 to 20 kts and any expanding cold pools could result in some strong storms with gusty winds though a lack of dry air aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor for getting anything much stronger. Uncertainty regarding timing of convection results in an uncertain heat index forecast, but if storms hold off long enough then heat indices would reach 105 in the persistent humid air mass.
Latest guidance has trended a bit more aggressive with the southward progress of the front before it stalls, indicating some drier (but still warm) air may make it down into some of the northern half of Central Alabama over the weekend. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will result in continued scattered to numerous showers and storms across at least the southern half of the area along and south of the front, along with potential for heat indices near 105 in the southeast counties. The front will lift back to the north on Monday. A weakness in the ridge over the south-central CONUS and a moist air mass will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms with heat indices mainly staying just under 105. The most likely scenario for Hurricane Beryl per the latest NHC forecasts and ensembles is for it to dissipate over southern Texas or northern Mexico, with less and less ensemble members showing any remnants curving towards us. Were this low probability scenario to occur, the sensible weather forecast for Central Alabama probably wouldn't be that much different, however.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Expect redevelopment of the low clouds around sunrise. Mentioned MVFR prevailing with a few locations tempo IFR for a few hours.
The typical thinning and lifting of the cloud bases expected by 16-17z. Moisture appears more limited with the latest CAMS so will back off on coverage in the afternoon. While an isolated shower/storm is possible at all sites, the best coverage will be limited to MGM. So removed PROB30 from all but MGM. Light east to southeast winds overnight and increasing to 5-10 kts on after 15z/16z. Winds calm after 1-3z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Scattered showers and storms are possible today mainly in far southern portions of Central Alabama. Scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the southeast to southwest.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 95 72 95 75 / 10 10 40 20 Anniston 93 74 93 76 / 10 10 50 20 Birmingham 97 75 95 78 / 20 10 40 20 Tuscaloosa 95 75 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 Calera 95 75 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 Auburn 92 74 92 76 / 20 20 50 20 Montgomery 93 74 94 76 / 40 20 40 20 Troy 94 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore- Jefferson-Lee-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Walker-Winston.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 316 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Through the 4th of July, the heat and humidity will have to be dealt with as we approach dangerous heat levels for a large portion of Central Alabama. While temperatures are cooler than last week's furnace blast, the dewpoints are higher so the apparent temperature, or feels like temperature, will be just as hot. There could be some showers/storms around, but just a brief reprieve from the heat. Most of the showers and storms that develop on the 4th should dissipate by sunset. Look for highs to be in the low to mid 90s both afternoons, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. As for the Heat Advisory, expanding a few counties in the southeast for today and then expanded in the northeast on Thursday. We do have 4 counties that are not in the advisory for today or Wednesday in the east. This counties typically have a little bit of a cooler tendency and also represents the higher elevation zones in our forecast area.
16
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Key messages:
- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday. A couple strong storms with gusty winds are possible. There is uncertainty as to whether heat indices will reach 105 degrees depending on how quickly storms develop.
- Some drier air may push into northern portions of Central Alabama over the weekend. Otherwise, a wetter pattern is expected next week with heat indices decreasing to just below 105 degrees.
Subtropical ridging will weaken and become centered near the Southeast Atlantic Coast through much of the period, while troughing amplifies over the Central CONUS downstream of a strong ridge over California. A seasonally strong shortwave will be moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday along with an associated surface low. An associated cold front will reach the Mid-South by Friday morning. Any lingering showers and storms at sunset Thursday night should quickly diminish, but it seems prudent to mention slight chance PoPs during the evening outdoor activities. Convection will remain ongoing ahead of the front late Thursday night with a slight chance that any convection makes it into our northern counties during the overnight hours. The front will be approaching from the northwest Friday while a pre-frontal trough may develop further south over Central Alabama. Westerlies along the base of the trough will begin to extend down into North Alabama. Forcing from these features and any boundaries from Thursday night's convection along with PWATs above 2 inches will result in numerous to widespread showers and storms developing by Friday afternoon. Some guidance suggests an MCS could develop as early as Friday morning but this remains uncertain. 0-6km bulk shear around 15 to 20 kts and any expanding cold pools could result in some strong storms with gusty winds though a lack of dry air aloft and weak mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor for getting anything much stronger. Uncertainty regarding timing of convection results in an uncertain heat index forecast, but if storms hold off long enough then heat indices would reach 105 in the persistent humid air mass.
Latest guidance has trended a bit more aggressive with the southward progress of the front before it stalls, indicating some drier (but still warm) air may make it down into some of the northern half of Central Alabama over the weekend. Meanwhile, a moist airmass will result in continued scattered to numerous showers and storms across at least the southern half of the area along and south of the front, along with potential for heat indices near 105 in the southeast counties. The front will lift back to the north on Monday. A weakness in the ridge over the south-central CONUS and a moist air mass will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms with heat indices mainly staying just under 105. The most likely scenario for Hurricane Beryl per the latest NHC forecasts and ensembles is for it to dissipate over southern Texas or northern Mexico, with less and less ensemble members showing any remnants curving towards us. Were this low probability scenario to occur, the sensible weather forecast for Central Alabama probably wouldn't be that much different, however.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024
Expect redevelopment of the low clouds around sunrise. Mentioned MVFR prevailing with a few locations tempo IFR for a few hours.
The typical thinning and lifting of the cloud bases expected by 16-17z. Moisture appears more limited with the latest CAMS so will back off on coverage in the afternoon. While an isolated shower/storm is possible at all sites, the best coverage will be limited to MGM. So removed PROB30 from all but MGM. Light east to southeast winds overnight and increasing to 5-10 kts on after 15z/16z. Winds calm after 1-3z.
16
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Scattered showers and storms are possible today mainly in far southern portions of Central Alabama. Scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the southeast to southwest.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 95 72 95 75 / 10 10 40 20 Anniston 93 74 93 76 / 10 10 50 20 Birmingham 97 75 95 78 / 20 10 40 20 Tuscaloosa 95 75 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 Calera 95 75 95 77 / 20 10 40 20 Auburn 92 74 92 76 / 20 20 50 20 Montgomery 93 74 94 76 / 40 20 40 20 Troy 94 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 20
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore- Jefferson-Lee-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Walker-Winston.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPLR ST CLAIR COUNTY,AL | 13 sm | 25 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 75°F | 100% | 30.10 | |
| KSCD MERKEL FIELD SYLACAUGA MUNI,AL | 17 sm | 25 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 30.09 | |
| KASN TALLADEGA MUNI,AL | 21 sm | 25 min | ESE 05 | 10 sm | -- | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 30.08 | |
| KBHM BIRMINGHAMSHUTTLESWORTH INTL,AL | 22 sm | 27 min | var 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 72°F | 79% | 30.11 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBHM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBHM
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBHM
Wind History graph: BHM
(wind in knots)
Birmingham, AL,
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