Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Coal City, WV
July 3, 2024 6:27 AM EDT (10:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM Moonset 6:14 PM |
FXUS61 KRLX 031002 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 602 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather through this afternoon. Chance of rain arrives late this afternoon and tonight. More active weather is expected on Thursday and Friday with cold fronts.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 307 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Heat Advisory in effect for portions of NE KY, SE OH and central, northern southern and western WV from noon through 8 PM this evening.
* There is a marginal risk for severe weather over SE OH through tonight.
* There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over SE OH through tonight.
Today, dry weather conditions remains under the influence of a high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast. South to southwest flow will bring warm and moist air advection, destabilizing the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front stalls just to our west, keeping the area under the warm sector.
Dewpoints are expected to rise into the lower 70s. With afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 90s across the lowlands, heat index values may exceed 100 this afternoon over NE KY, SE OH and portions of the WV lowlands. Therefore, a heat advisory has been issued for portions of NE KY, SE OH, and central, northern, southern and western WV through this evening.
A passing upper level short wave will provide the necessary forcing to trigger convection late this afternoon and evening.
Under an environment of SB CAPE values of 1,500 to 2,200 J/Kg, deep layered shear from 20 to 30 knots, and PWATs increasing from 1.5 to 2.22 inches, expect strong to severe convection developing mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Local soundings show tall/skinny CAPE signatures. Together with PWATs exceeding 2 inches, thunderstorms will be capable to produce very heavy downpours along their path. WPC has outlooked SE OH under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through tonight.
Hi-res CAMs suggest strong convection reaching the Mid OH valley around by 21Z or 00Z Thursday, spreading east across WV while dissipating. Consequently, SPC has placed SE Ohio in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this timeframe. A more stable atmosphere will remains in WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA suppressing any convection that manage to survive over these areas later tonight.
The south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. A muggy night is anticipated with temperatures and dewpoints from the mid 60s mountains, into the lower 70s lowlands.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with cold front.
* Some storms could be strong or severe.
* There is a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.
* There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Stationary front across Ohio gains some steam and slowly moves eastward across the area Thursday. Showers and storms will overspread the area as through out the day as it makes its eastward journey. Some storms will be strong or severe with damaging winds and maybe some hail. SPC has the entire forecast area outlooked for a marginal risk of severe weather.
NAM shows some fairly impressive CAPE (SB,ML and MU) profiles between 1,000-3,000 J/Kg across the area Thursday during peak heating. Values greater than 3,000 J/Kg could exist in a CAPE bulge across the southern coalfields in the afternoon and this could be an area to watch for higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Some uncertainty exists with whether these values will come to fruition as cloud cover could exist throughout the day preventing temperatures from being too hot and creating a cap for any strong convection. Regardless, temperatures look to be in the mid to high 80s across the lowlands with the mountains ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s. These temperatures will be dependent on the amount of clearing that occurs.
Surface to 500MB bulk shear looks to remain confined across our SE Ohio counties and along the Ohio River until later in the afternoon as the front and surface low push through. Values are forecasted to be between 30-45kts across this area, which is decent enough to maintain storm longevity and provide at least a minuscule tornado threat depending on the positioning of a surface low or vort max; the main threats remain to be damaging winds and small hail though.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this system as it is slow moving and precipitable water will be around 2.00" inches across the bulk of the area, which is a decent amount of water. As a result, LCLs look to be fairly low (500 to 1,000 meters)resulting in lower cloud bases. Localized to isolated flash flooding issues will be on the table, especially for areas that receive a lot of rain Wednesday night. WPC has the entire area outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Wednesday...
A warm front will be to our north early Friday with another cold front west of the area. This front is expected to move through later on Friday into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected from Friday into Saturday. A dry spell looks likely from late Saturday into early Monday as this front exits.
Temperatures will also be above normal through the long-term forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the typical lowland hot spots into next week. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees for a few locations on Friday due to high humidity, which could lead to a heat advisory being issued.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 601 AM Wednesday...
Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least 21Z or 00Z Thursday. Most of the area will remain dry through the afternoon hours. Then, convection will fire up ahead of an approaching cold front across SE OH by late afternoon into the evening hours. Any strong shower or thunderstorms will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path.
Terminals most likely to be affected will be PKB, HTS and CRW around 00Z and thereafter. Thunderstorms will weaken to just showers as they move into a more stable environment over the eastern terminals.
With the frontal boundary stalled west of the area, showers and storms, and associated brief IFR conditions, may still be possible tonight, as a series of upper level shortwaves pass by.
Winds will be light southwest with occasional gusts in the teens possible after 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection may develop around 21Z bringing restrictions at least to PKB before 00Z this evening.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>009-013>015-017-025-026.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 602 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure brings dry weather through this afternoon. Chance of rain arrives late this afternoon and tonight. More active weather is expected on Thursday and Friday with cold fronts.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 307 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Heat Advisory in effect for portions of NE KY, SE OH and central, northern southern and western WV from noon through 8 PM this evening.
* There is a marginal risk for severe weather over SE OH through tonight.
* There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over SE OH through tonight.
Today, dry weather conditions remains under the influence of a high pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast. South to southwest flow will bring warm and moist air advection, destabilizing the atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front stalls just to our west, keeping the area under the warm sector.
Dewpoints are expected to rise into the lower 70s. With afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 90s across the lowlands, heat index values may exceed 100 this afternoon over NE KY, SE OH and portions of the WV lowlands. Therefore, a heat advisory has been issued for portions of NE KY, SE OH, and central, northern, southern and western WV through this evening.
A passing upper level short wave will provide the necessary forcing to trigger convection late this afternoon and evening.
Under an environment of SB CAPE values of 1,500 to 2,200 J/Kg, deep layered shear from 20 to 30 knots, and PWATs increasing from 1.5 to 2.22 inches, expect strong to severe convection developing mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Local soundings show tall/skinny CAPE signatures. Together with PWATs exceeding 2 inches, thunderstorms will be capable to produce very heavy downpours along their path. WPC has outlooked SE OH under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through tonight.
Hi-res CAMs suggest strong convection reaching the Mid OH valley around by 21Z or 00Z Thursday, spreading east across WV while dissipating. Consequently, SPC has placed SE Ohio in a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this timeframe. A more stable atmosphere will remains in WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA suppressing any convection that manage to survive over these areas later tonight.
The south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. A muggy night is anticipated with temperatures and dewpoints from the mid 60s mountains, into the lower 70s lowlands.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM Wednesday...
Key Points:
* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with cold front.
* Some storms could be strong or severe.
* There is a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.
* There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday.
Stationary front across Ohio gains some steam and slowly moves eastward across the area Thursday. Showers and storms will overspread the area as through out the day as it makes its eastward journey. Some storms will be strong or severe with damaging winds and maybe some hail. SPC has the entire forecast area outlooked for a marginal risk of severe weather.
NAM shows some fairly impressive CAPE (SB,ML and MU) profiles between 1,000-3,000 J/Kg across the area Thursday during peak heating. Values greater than 3,000 J/Kg could exist in a CAPE bulge across the southern coalfields in the afternoon and this could be an area to watch for higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Some uncertainty exists with whether these values will come to fruition as cloud cover could exist throughout the day preventing temperatures from being too hot and creating a cap for any strong convection. Regardless, temperatures look to be in the mid to high 80s across the lowlands with the mountains ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s. These temperatures will be dependent on the amount of clearing that occurs.
Surface to 500MB bulk shear looks to remain confined across our SE Ohio counties and along the Ohio River until later in the afternoon as the front and surface low push through. Values are forecasted to be between 30-45kts across this area, which is decent enough to maintain storm longevity and provide at least a minuscule tornado threat depending on the positioning of a surface low or vort max; the main threats remain to be damaging winds and small hail though.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this system as it is slow moving and precipitable water will be around 2.00" inches across the bulk of the area, which is a decent amount of water. As a result, LCLs look to be fairly low (500 to 1,000 meters)resulting in lower cloud bases. Localized to isolated flash flooding issues will be on the table, especially for areas that receive a lot of rain Wednesday night. WPC has the entire area outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 230 AM Wednesday...
A warm front will be to our north early Friday with another cold front west of the area. This front is expected to move through later on Friday into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms expected from Friday into Saturday. A dry spell looks likely from late Saturday into early Monday as this front exits.
Temperatures will also be above normal through the long-term forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the typical lowland hot spots into next week. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees for a few locations on Friday due to high humidity, which could lead to a heat advisory being issued.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 601 AM Wednesday...
Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least 21Z or 00Z Thursday. Most of the area will remain dry through the afternoon hours. Then, convection will fire up ahead of an approaching cold front across SE OH by late afternoon into the evening hours. Any strong shower or thunderstorms will produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path.
Terminals most likely to be affected will be PKB, HTS and CRW around 00Z and thereafter. Thunderstorms will weaken to just showers as they move into a more stable environment over the eastern terminals.
With the frontal boundary stalled west of the area, showers and storms, and associated brief IFR conditions, may still be possible tonight, as a series of upper level shortwaves pass by.
Winds will be light southwest with occasional gusts in the teens possible after 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection may develop around 21Z bringing restrictions at least to PKB before 00Z this evening.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>009-013>015-017-025-026.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103.
VA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBKW
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBKW
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBKW
Wind History graph: BKW
(wind in knots)
Blacksburg, VA,
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