Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Parker, AZ
June 1, 2024 12:39 AM MST (07:39 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:24 AM Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 2:09 AM Moonset 2:44 PM |
FXUS65 KPSR 010536 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1035 PM MST Fri May 31 2024
UPDATE
Updated Aviation
SYNOPSIS
Seasonably hot and dry weather conditions will persist through early next week with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. By the middle through latter half of next week, high pressure is forecast to strengthen across much of the western United States, resulting in hotter temperatures as high get closer to 110 degrees across much of the lower deserts.
DISCUSSION
A mostly quasi-zonal flow pattern is persisting across the Desert Southwest as the region is entrenched between the subtropical ridge located over central Mexico and cyclonic flow near the Canadian border as well as the Pacific Northwest. This overall pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with temperatures remaining steady state with highs between 100-105 degrees across the lower deserts, which is a good 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of the year. This will continue to result in widespread minor HeatRisk with pockets of moderate HeatRisk. A very weak shortwave trough will bypass just to the north Sunday, however, it will have no discernible sensible weather impacts other than maybe slightly enhance the afternoon breeziness.
Heading into the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, the weather pattern will be changing as a ridge of high pressure will amplify across much of the western U.S while a weak upper-level low develops off the Baja California Peninsula. In consequence, in response to the amplifying ridge pattern, 500 mb height fields across the region will be rising to between 588-594dm heading into the latter half of next week. This will translate to hotter temperatures with highs ranging between 105-110 degrees across the majority of the lower deserts from next Wednesday through Friday. These hotter temperatures will elevate the HeatRisk into the moderate category across the majority of the area.
Even though there is high confidence of a strong ridge developing across the majority of the western CONUS heading into the middle to latter half of next week, the evolution of the aforementioned upper- level low off the Baja Peninsula is a bit more uncertain as model guidance differs in the overall positioning and whether or not this feature will eventually move into our region. At this time, GEFS seems to be the most aggressive in moving this upper low into our region while both the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are not as aggressive. This overall evolution will determine whether or not the region sees a slight cooling trend with highs in the low to mid 100s or readings remaining near 110 degrees heading into next weekend.
This uncertainty is being reflected in the NBM inter-quartile temperature distribution, which shows as high as an 8 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile heading into next weekend. With the upper-level low being positioned near the Baja Peninsula, south to southeast flow along the east side of the low will likely advect some moisture into the region late next week through next weekend, just enough to cause an increase in cloud cover and maybe some isolated weak afternoon convection across the AZ high terrain.
AVIATION
Updated at 0535Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Saturday night under clear skies. Wind trends across the region should be nearly identical to the past 24 hours. Across the Phoenix metro, this will include directions switching to an overnight easterly drainage component, then shifting back to westerly early Saturday afternoon.
Probabilities of gusts 15-20 mph at the Phoenix area terminals are greater Saturday afternoon than previous days. SE California terminals will experience winds oscillating between SE and SW with extended periods of variable directions.
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week with lower desert highs between 100 and 105 degrees, or 3-5 degrees above average each day. MinRH values will continue to run between 5-10% across the majority of the area each day, while overnight recoveries will continue to range from poor to fair at around 25-40%. Winds will overall be fairly light following diurnal tendencies with periodic afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1035 PM MST Fri May 31 2024
UPDATE
Updated Aviation
SYNOPSIS
Seasonably hot and dry weather conditions will persist through early next week with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. By the middle through latter half of next week, high pressure is forecast to strengthen across much of the western United States, resulting in hotter temperatures as high get closer to 110 degrees across much of the lower deserts.
DISCUSSION
A mostly quasi-zonal flow pattern is persisting across the Desert Southwest as the region is entrenched between the subtropical ridge located over central Mexico and cyclonic flow near the Canadian border as well as the Pacific Northwest. This overall pattern is expected to persist into early next week, with temperatures remaining steady state with highs between 100-105 degrees across the lower deserts, which is a good 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of the year. This will continue to result in widespread minor HeatRisk with pockets of moderate HeatRisk. A very weak shortwave trough will bypass just to the north Sunday, however, it will have no discernible sensible weather impacts other than maybe slightly enhance the afternoon breeziness.
Heading into the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, the weather pattern will be changing as a ridge of high pressure will amplify across much of the western U.S while a weak upper-level low develops off the Baja California Peninsula. In consequence, in response to the amplifying ridge pattern, 500 mb height fields across the region will be rising to between 588-594dm heading into the latter half of next week. This will translate to hotter temperatures with highs ranging between 105-110 degrees across the majority of the lower deserts from next Wednesday through Friday. These hotter temperatures will elevate the HeatRisk into the moderate category across the majority of the area.
Even though there is high confidence of a strong ridge developing across the majority of the western CONUS heading into the middle to latter half of next week, the evolution of the aforementioned upper- level low off the Baja Peninsula is a bit more uncertain as model guidance differs in the overall positioning and whether or not this feature will eventually move into our region. At this time, GEFS seems to be the most aggressive in moving this upper low into our region while both the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are not as aggressive. This overall evolution will determine whether or not the region sees a slight cooling trend with highs in the low to mid 100s or readings remaining near 110 degrees heading into next weekend.
This uncertainty is being reflected in the NBM inter-quartile temperature distribution, which shows as high as an 8 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile heading into next weekend. With the upper-level low being positioned near the Baja Peninsula, south to southeast flow along the east side of the low will likely advect some moisture into the region late next week through next weekend, just enough to cause an increase in cloud cover and maybe some isolated weak afternoon convection across the AZ high terrain.
AVIATION
Updated at 0535Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Saturday night under clear skies. Wind trends across the region should be nearly identical to the past 24 hours. Across the Phoenix metro, this will include directions switching to an overnight easterly drainage component, then shifting back to westerly early Saturday afternoon.
Probabilities of gusts 15-20 mph at the Phoenix area terminals are greater Saturday afternoon than previous days. SE California terminals will experience winds oscillating between SE and SW with extended periods of variable directions.
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week with lower desert highs between 100 and 105 degrees, or 3-5 degrees above average each day. MinRH values will continue to run between 5-10% across the majority of the area each day, while overnight recoveries will continue to range from poor to fair at around 25-40%. Winds will overall be fairly light following diurnal tendencies with periodic afternoon gusts of 15-20 mph.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.
Yuma, AZ,
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