Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mantoloking, NJ
July 3, 2024 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM Moonset 6:54 PM |
ANZ450 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon - W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 403 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure moves offshore and remains east of the area through the weekend. Low pressure moves well north of the area Thursday and sends a few weak fronts towards eastern pennsylvania and northern new jersey. These fronts remain in the area through Saturday before diminishing. Another system arrives for Tuesday of next week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 031909 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves offshore and remains east of the area through the weekend. Low pressure moves well north of the area Thursday and sends a few weak fronts towards eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. These fronts remain in the area through Saturday before diminishing. Another system arrives for Tuesday of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure continues to gradually move off the coast to our east as a frontal system starts to approach from the west.
However the high will continue to dominate our weather through this evening bringing continuing mainly clear to partly cloudy skies along with southerly winds generally around 5 to 10 mph.
As we head into the overnight period tonight, a warm front will be pushing eastward across PA bringing increasing cloud cover with dew points also starting to rise. There could be a few showers moving into our NE PA zones across the southern Poconos by very late tonight but I think that most likely this will remain to our north and west so POPs tonight only max out around 15 to 20 percent.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s across the cooler spots such as the Pine Barrens and the southern Poconos to the upper 60s around the urban corridor.
High pressure will continue to move offshore into Independence Day as a surface low and associated upper level trough move eastward through eastern Canada. This will push the warm front through the region early in the day Thursday allowing the area to get into the warm sector. The warm front could continue to bring a few isolated showers or storms early Thursday morning, mainly over NE PA into NW NJ, but with the greater chances for showers and storms arriving later in the day (mainly after 2 PM). Prior to this, the other story for the day will be the return of the heat and humidity as highs for most areas will reach the upper 80s to low 90s (cooler near the coast and over the Poconos) with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This will result in max heat indicies into the 90s for most areas along and south of I-78. Cloud cover is expected to increase as the day progresses and winds will be from the south to southwest near 5-10 mph (15-20 mph near the coasts).
As for the storm threat later in the day, expect storms to fire in the vicinity of a weakening frontal boundary draped over PA by the afternoon hours with these storms moving eastward into our eastern PA and northern NJ zones by later in the afternoon and then potentially affecting Delmarva and southern and coastal NJ by the evening. So it won't be an all day type rain event but unfortunately the timing won't be great as it could interfere with Independence Day festivities. Our POPs generally max out around 40% to 50% over much of the area, though are a bit lower near 30% to 40% near the coast and across Delmarva and a bit higher (around 60 percent)
around Chester and Berks Counties in SE PA. With ML CAPE values progged to max out around 1000-1500 J/kg along with deep layer shear values around 30 knots, there is the potential some storms could become severe. The SPC has a MARGINAL risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms extending east into SE PA and Delmarva though it was pulled back slightly from the previous forecast. Water loaded downdrafts could lead to a few strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Given the shear, convection could exhibit some organization, though widespread severe convection is not expected at this time.
Most guidance has PWats over 2.0" across the entire area, and largely within the 2.25" to 2.5" range. These values are near record PWat values for the month of July at IAD and OKX (read: highly anomalous). WPC keeps most of our area in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rain but has upgraded SE PA (including Philly) to a SLIGHT risk as storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain which could lead to localized flash flooding...especially if storms set up over the urban areas of Greater Philadelphia.
Storms may linger into a good portion of the evening Thursday before diminishing overnight. It will be a very warm and muggy night as the frontal boundary gets hung up over the area. Most areas won't see lows getting below the low/mid 70s (except 60s over the Poconos).
Some fog development is possible overnight where ever rainfall occurs.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The last day of the week and into the weekend will feature a continuation of July-like weather with plenty of warmth and humidity. Highs both days will be above normal with upper 80s/low 90s common across the region. Dew points in the low/mid 70s for many areas with perhaps a few upper 70s for Sat around Delaware Bay.
Precipitation chances will be diurnal mostly with slight chance pops for the morning and higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours.
Sat will have some likely pops for the afternoon as the upper ridge will have moved away and more subtle shortwaves traverse the region.
Locally heavy rains are possible for the afternoon and evening hours.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Saturday night, the showers and tstms across the area Saturday will gradually end from west to east overnight. We;ll carry chance pops for the ern areas and slight chc for the NW sections. Some heavy rains will taper off during the evening. We are not certain how fast things will end and its possible that some higher pops may eventually be needed for the evening. Very warm/hot and humid conditions will continue.
We'll settle into a mid-summer pattern Sunday and into next week with a stretch of above normal temperatures and varying amounts of humidity expected. Sunday and Monday will feature more comfortable dew points (humidity) compared to the last days of the forecast. Dew points Sun/Mon will mostly be in the 60s before climbing into the low 70s (with upper 60s NW) for the midweek.
Rainfall for Sunday and Monday will be scarce with an upper ridge banked across the East Coast. This all changes for Tue/Wed as most op models depict a slow moving front edging into the area. This could be the focus for frequent showers/tstms during those periods. We have capped pops in the chance range at this time since the NBM wanted likely pops over a wide area. Not comfortable with this attm.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 0Z this evening...Mainly VFR with just some Ci clouds and some diurnal Cu. Light S winds becoming 5-10 kts. High confidence
Tonight...VFR with no significant weather. Winds generally southerly around 5 kts. High confidence.
Thursday...VFR in the morning but with increasing clouds. scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop for the afternoon into the evening hours (mainly after 18z) and these could bring restrictions if any of these storms move over a TAF site. The best chances for this look to be around RDG with lower POPs farther south and east toward MIV and ACY. Winds mainly southwest around 5 to 10 knots except 10 to 15 knots around ACY. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Fri
/Fri night
Scattered showers/tstms developing Fri afternoon and continuing overnight lower CIGS/VSBYS at times.
Saturday... VFR early then scattered showers/tstms developing for the afternoon/evening with lower CIGS/VSBYS possible.
Sat night... Lower CIGS/VSBYS in showers/tstms diminish overnight. Patchy fog possible at TAF sites that receive any rain.
Sunday/Monday... Mostly VFR. Patchy fog possible overnight.
MARINE
Sub-SCA with fair weather through tonight. Light S or SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts.
For Thursday into Thursday night, southerly winds increase to around 15 to 20 knots but should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.
However showers and storms will be possible over the waters by Thursday evening and these could bring locally stronger winds.
Outlook...
sub-SCA overall with scattered showers and tstms Fri/Sat and less so Sunday. Low-end SCA gusts and seas possible for the Ocean Sat afternoon and evening.
Rip Currents...
Today...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
Independence Day (Thursday)...Southerly winds strengthen with breaking wave heights increasing. With an onshore component to the wind for Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean County, there is a MODERATE risk for rip currents. With wind direction more shore parallel/offshore at the Delaware Beaches and northern Jersey Shore, have elected to go with a LOW risk. Breaking wave of 2 to 3 feet, though some 4 foot waves are possible within the MODERATE risk area.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves offshore and remains east of the area through the weekend. Low pressure moves well north of the area Thursday and sends a few weak fronts towards eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. These fronts remain in the area through Saturday before diminishing. Another system arrives for Tuesday of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure continues to gradually move off the coast to our east as a frontal system starts to approach from the west.
However the high will continue to dominate our weather through this evening bringing continuing mainly clear to partly cloudy skies along with southerly winds generally around 5 to 10 mph.
As we head into the overnight period tonight, a warm front will be pushing eastward across PA bringing increasing cloud cover with dew points also starting to rise. There could be a few showers moving into our NE PA zones across the southern Poconos by very late tonight but I think that most likely this will remain to our north and west so POPs tonight only max out around 15 to 20 percent.
Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s across the cooler spots such as the Pine Barrens and the southern Poconos to the upper 60s around the urban corridor.
High pressure will continue to move offshore into Independence Day as a surface low and associated upper level trough move eastward through eastern Canada. This will push the warm front through the region early in the day Thursday allowing the area to get into the warm sector. The warm front could continue to bring a few isolated showers or storms early Thursday morning, mainly over NE PA into NW NJ, but with the greater chances for showers and storms arriving later in the day (mainly after 2 PM). Prior to this, the other story for the day will be the return of the heat and humidity as highs for most areas will reach the upper 80s to low 90s (cooler near the coast and over the Poconos) with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. This will result in max heat indicies into the 90s for most areas along and south of I-78. Cloud cover is expected to increase as the day progresses and winds will be from the south to southwest near 5-10 mph (15-20 mph near the coasts).
As for the storm threat later in the day, expect storms to fire in the vicinity of a weakening frontal boundary draped over PA by the afternoon hours with these storms moving eastward into our eastern PA and northern NJ zones by later in the afternoon and then potentially affecting Delmarva and southern and coastal NJ by the evening. So it won't be an all day type rain event but unfortunately the timing won't be great as it could interfere with Independence Day festivities. Our POPs generally max out around 40% to 50% over much of the area, though are a bit lower near 30% to 40% near the coast and across Delmarva and a bit higher (around 60 percent)
around Chester and Berks Counties in SE PA. With ML CAPE values progged to max out around 1000-1500 J/kg along with deep layer shear values around 30 knots, there is the potential some storms could become severe. The SPC has a MARGINAL risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms extending east into SE PA and Delmarva though it was pulled back slightly from the previous forecast. Water loaded downdrafts could lead to a few strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Given the shear, convection could exhibit some organization, though widespread severe convection is not expected at this time.
Most guidance has PWats over 2.0" across the entire area, and largely within the 2.25" to 2.5" range. These values are near record PWat values for the month of July at IAD and OKX (read: highly anomalous). WPC keeps most of our area in a MARGINAL risk for excessive rain but has upgraded SE PA (including Philly) to a SLIGHT risk as storms will be capable of producing very heavy rain which could lead to localized flash flooding...especially if storms set up over the urban areas of Greater Philadelphia.
Storms may linger into a good portion of the evening Thursday before diminishing overnight. It will be a very warm and muggy night as the frontal boundary gets hung up over the area. Most areas won't see lows getting below the low/mid 70s (except 60s over the Poconos).
Some fog development is possible overnight where ever rainfall occurs.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The last day of the week and into the weekend will feature a continuation of July-like weather with plenty of warmth and humidity. Highs both days will be above normal with upper 80s/low 90s common across the region. Dew points in the low/mid 70s for many areas with perhaps a few upper 70s for Sat around Delaware Bay.
Precipitation chances will be diurnal mostly with slight chance pops for the morning and higher pops for the afternoon and evening hours.
Sat will have some likely pops for the afternoon as the upper ridge will have moved away and more subtle shortwaves traverse the region.
Locally heavy rains are possible for the afternoon and evening hours.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Saturday night, the showers and tstms across the area Saturday will gradually end from west to east overnight. We;ll carry chance pops for the ern areas and slight chc for the NW sections. Some heavy rains will taper off during the evening. We are not certain how fast things will end and its possible that some higher pops may eventually be needed for the evening. Very warm/hot and humid conditions will continue.
We'll settle into a mid-summer pattern Sunday and into next week with a stretch of above normal temperatures and varying amounts of humidity expected. Sunday and Monday will feature more comfortable dew points (humidity) compared to the last days of the forecast. Dew points Sun/Mon will mostly be in the 60s before climbing into the low 70s (with upper 60s NW) for the midweek.
Rainfall for Sunday and Monday will be scarce with an upper ridge banked across the East Coast. This all changes for Tue/Wed as most op models depict a slow moving front edging into the area. This could be the focus for frequent showers/tstms during those periods. We have capped pops in the chance range at this time since the NBM wanted likely pops over a wide area. Not comfortable with this attm.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 0Z this evening...Mainly VFR with just some Ci clouds and some diurnal Cu. Light S winds becoming 5-10 kts. High confidence
Tonight...VFR with no significant weather. Winds generally southerly around 5 kts. High confidence.
Thursday...VFR in the morning but with increasing clouds. scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop for the afternoon into the evening hours (mainly after 18z) and these could bring restrictions if any of these storms move over a TAF site. The best chances for this look to be around RDG with lower POPs farther south and east toward MIV and ACY. Winds mainly southwest around 5 to 10 knots except 10 to 15 knots around ACY. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Fri
/Fri night
Scattered showers/tstms developing Fri afternoon and continuing overnight lower CIGS/VSBYS at times.
Saturday... VFR early then scattered showers/tstms developing for the afternoon/evening with lower CIGS/VSBYS possible.
Sat night... Lower CIGS/VSBYS in showers/tstms diminish overnight. Patchy fog possible at TAF sites that receive any rain.
Sunday/Monday... Mostly VFR. Patchy fog possible overnight.
MARINE
Sub-SCA with fair weather through tonight. Light S or SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts.
For Thursday into Thursday night, southerly winds increase to around 15 to 20 knots but should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.
However showers and storms will be possible over the waters by Thursday evening and these could bring locally stronger winds.
Outlook...
sub-SCA overall with scattered showers and tstms Fri/Sat and less so Sunday. Low-end SCA gusts and seas possible for the Ocean Sat afternoon and evening.
Rip Currents...
Today...Southeast winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves remain around 1-2 feet. Despite more of an onshore flow, with light conditions expected, have continued with a LOW risk of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
Independence Day (Thursday)...Southerly winds strengthen with breaking wave heights increasing. With an onshore component to the wind for Cape May, Atlantic, and Ocean County, there is a MODERATE risk for rip currents. With wind direction more shore parallel/offshore at the Delaware Beaches and northern Jersey Shore, have elected to go with a LOW risk. Breaking wave of 2 to 3 feet, though some 4 foot waves are possible within the MODERATE risk area.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44091 | 25 mi | 63 min | 71°F | 2 ft | ||||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 28 mi | 59 min | SSE 18G | 73°F | 74°F | 30.15 | ||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 29 mi | 49 min | SSE 12G | 70°F | 69°F | 30.15 | 67°F | |
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 37 mi | 59 min | SSW 6G | 82°F | 80°F | 30.14 | ||
| MHRN6 | 41 mi | 59 min | SE 18G | |||||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 41 mi | 59 min | S 25G | 73°F | 30.13 | |||
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 42 mi | 59 min | SE 11 | 80°F | 30.21 | 53°F | ||
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 43 mi | 53 min | WSW 11G | 82°F | 80°F | 30.11 | ||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 44 mi | 59 min | 77°F | 68°F | 30.09 | |||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 49 mi | 49 min | S 9.7G | 70°F | 68°F | 30.19 | 66°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBLM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBLM
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBLM
Wind History graph: BLM
(wind in knots)Beaverdam Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM EDT 0.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT 0.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:05 AM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM EDT 0.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:57 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT 0.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Beaverdam Creek entrance, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| 0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EDT -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT 2.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT 2.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EDT -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:59 AM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT 2.05 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:26 PM EDT -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:51 PM EDT 2.77 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:26 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -3 |
| 1 am |
| -2.8 |
| 2 am |
| -1.9 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -1 |
| 11 am |
| -1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.5 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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