Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mountain Home, AR
July 3, 2024 4:23 AM CDT (09:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM Moonset 5:56 PM |
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 030857 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 357 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Messaging remains the same today as we approach Independence Day, with hazardous heat and humidity staying in place over the FA through at least Thurs aftn. For now, most areas wl be under a heat advisory or an excessive heat warning, with air temps topping out in the upper 90s to triple digits, and heat index values in excess of 105 to 110 degrees.
Thru the day today, a weak trailing cdfrnt, extending acrs the Midwest and Great Lakes regions and into Cntrl Canada wl be moving S/Ewrd towards the Ozark Plateau. Most recent CAM guidance has been consistent on incrsg covg of convective activity along this frnt, w/ initiation expected later on this evng, primarily over Srn MO to Nrn AR. Weak vertical shear is expected to be in place, generally 30 kts or less, along w/ modest buoyancy, which wl support some isolated organized storm potential. Hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards expected.
Thurs, Independence Day, a rinse and repeat pattern is expected, w/ sultry heat and humidity across the Natural state. With coordination of neighboring offices, have gone ahead and issued heat headlines for the entirety of the FA on Thurs, including heat advisories over the N/Wrn portion of the state, and excessive heat warnings over the S/Ern half of the state, including the Little Rock metro area.
Upgrades and expansion of the excessive heat warning on Thursday is likely, but timing of afternoon PoPs currently hinders higher confidence of current hazard coverage.
For those celebrating the holiday outside or heading off to an outdoor show, being mindful of hazardous heat wl be important to keep the celebration going! Stay well-hydrated, take breaks inside, and know the signs of heat-related illnesses. Some positive news for heat, though not necessarily for outdoor celebrations, wl be incrsg chcs for rain and storms acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR on Thurs aftn to evng.
A stronger cdfrnt, driven by an H500 shortwave over the Midwest, is expected to move thru the Cntrl Plains towards the Srn US by Thurs night. Covg and magnitude of rain is expected to be greater acrs Nrn AR initially Thurs evng, and expand towards Cntrl to Srn AR towards the later evng to overnight hours.
Some stronger storms may be possible acrs Nrn AR initially, where overlap of buoyancy and weak, but ample vertical shear will lie.
Hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary hazards on Thurs again.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The pattern will be in the process of changing in the long term, with the end of oppressive heat. A ridge of high pressure over the southern United States will be in the process of slowly buckling over the middle of the country. This will happen as a trough deepens, and ridging is forced toward the southwest United States and the southeast. A west/northwest flow aloft will drive a cold front through much of the region on Friday. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly cooler/drier and more seasonal air.
It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty. During this time frame, seasonal temperatures are expected.
Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the front will stall across Arkansas, most likely in central/southern sections of the state. At the same time, the remnants of tropical system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday/Tuesday, especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much needed rain, the other good news is that temperatures will remain seasonal/not so hot.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR condns are expected to persist thru the PD, w/ winds settling out overnight Tues night. Main story on Wed wl be development of TS acrs Nrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt, though confidence on covg remains low attm. Kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals w/ this set of TAFs, and additional refinement of convective activity is expected. Otherwise, area-wide Srly winds should resume on Wed aftn.
/72/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 98 77 96 74 / 30 20 40 60 Camden AR 100 78 98 76 / 10 10 20 20 Harrison AR 96 73 96 69 / 40 20 40 60 Hot Springs AR 99 78 98 75 / 10 10 20 40 Little Rock AR 99 80 98 78 / 10 10 30 40 Monticello AR 99 79 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Mount Ida AR 98 76 97 72 / 10 10 20 40 Mountain Home AR 95 74 95 71 / 40 30 50 60 Newport AR 98 78 96 76 / 20 20 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 99 79 97 77 / 10 10 20 30 Russellville AR 99 78 98 75 / 10 10 20 50 Searcy AR 99 77 97 75 / 10 10 40 50 Stuttgart AR 97 80 95 78 / 10 10 30 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047- 053>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>006-014- 015-024-031-039-052-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203- 212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-103-112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 357 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Messaging remains the same today as we approach Independence Day, with hazardous heat and humidity staying in place over the FA through at least Thurs aftn. For now, most areas wl be under a heat advisory or an excessive heat warning, with air temps topping out in the upper 90s to triple digits, and heat index values in excess of 105 to 110 degrees.
Thru the day today, a weak trailing cdfrnt, extending acrs the Midwest and Great Lakes regions and into Cntrl Canada wl be moving S/Ewrd towards the Ozark Plateau. Most recent CAM guidance has been consistent on incrsg covg of convective activity along this frnt, w/ initiation expected later on this evng, primarily over Srn MO to Nrn AR. Weak vertical shear is expected to be in place, generally 30 kts or less, along w/ modest buoyancy, which wl support some isolated organized storm potential. Hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards expected.
Thurs, Independence Day, a rinse and repeat pattern is expected, w/ sultry heat and humidity across the Natural state. With coordination of neighboring offices, have gone ahead and issued heat headlines for the entirety of the FA on Thurs, including heat advisories over the N/Wrn portion of the state, and excessive heat warnings over the S/Ern half of the state, including the Little Rock metro area.
Upgrades and expansion of the excessive heat warning on Thursday is likely, but timing of afternoon PoPs currently hinders higher confidence of current hazard coverage.
For those celebrating the holiday outside or heading off to an outdoor show, being mindful of hazardous heat wl be important to keep the celebration going! Stay well-hydrated, take breaks inside, and know the signs of heat-related illnesses. Some positive news for heat, though not necessarily for outdoor celebrations, wl be incrsg chcs for rain and storms acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR on Thurs aftn to evng.
A stronger cdfrnt, driven by an H500 shortwave over the Midwest, is expected to move thru the Cntrl Plains towards the Srn US by Thurs night. Covg and magnitude of rain is expected to be greater acrs Nrn AR initially Thurs evng, and expand towards Cntrl to Srn AR towards the later evng to overnight hours.
Some stronger storms may be possible acrs Nrn AR initially, where overlap of buoyancy and weak, but ample vertical shear will lie.
Hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary hazards on Thurs again.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The pattern will be in the process of changing in the long term, with the end of oppressive heat. A ridge of high pressure over the southern United States will be in the process of slowly buckling over the middle of the country. This will happen as a trough deepens, and ridging is forced toward the southwest United States and the southeast. A west/northwest flow aloft will drive a cold front through much of the region on Friday. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers/thunderstorms, followed by slightly cooler/drier and more seasonal air.
It appears the front will wash out in or just south of the area this weekend. Any precipitation will become more spotty. During this time frame, seasonal temperatures are expected.
Heading into early next week, another cold front will arrive from the Plains on Monday. Just like its predecessor, it appears the front will stall across Arkansas, most likely in central/southern sections of the state. At the same time, the remnants of tropical system Beryl will be well to our south, and moisture surrounding the system may come into play locally. Have hit/miss thunderstorms mentioned Monday/Tuesday, especially during the afternoon/early evening. In addition to some much needed rain, the other good news is that temperatures will remain seasonal/not so hot.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR condns are expected to persist thru the PD, w/ winds settling out overnight Tues night. Main story on Wed wl be development of TS acrs Nrn AR along an advancing cdfrnt, though confidence on covg remains low attm. Kept mentions of VCTS at Nrn terminals w/ this set of TAFs, and additional refinement of convective activity is expected. Otherwise, area-wide Srly winds should resume on Wed aftn.
/72/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 98 77 96 74 / 30 20 40 60 Camden AR 100 78 98 76 / 10 10 20 20 Harrison AR 96 73 96 69 / 40 20 40 60 Hot Springs AR 99 78 98 75 / 10 10 20 40 Little Rock AR 99 80 98 78 / 10 10 30 40 Monticello AR 99 79 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Mount Ida AR 98 76 97 72 / 10 10 20 40 Mountain Home AR 95 74 95 71 / 40 30 50 60 Newport AR 98 78 96 76 / 20 20 40 50 Pine Bluff AR 99 79 97 77 / 10 10 20 30 Russellville AR 99 78 98 75 / 10 10 20 50 Searcy AR 99 77 97 75 / 10 10 40 50 Stuttgart AR 97 80 95 78 / 10 10 30 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047- 053>057-062>069-113-121>123-130-137-138-212-213-230-238-313.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>006-014- 015-024-031-039-052-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203- 212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ052-103-112-140-141-203-221>223-237-240-241-340-341.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBPK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBPK
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBPK
Wind History graph: BPK
(wind in knots)
Springfield, MO,
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