Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM   Moonset 3:24 PM

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FXUS64 KLZK 012307 AAA AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 607 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Latest data from KLZK radar indicate a few weak convective cells in northeast Arkansas, moving east. Regional radar data indicate a MCS developing to the east of the DFW metroplex, moving east.
This system is expected to develop towards the LZK forecast area.

Overnight, wIth a light and variable near surface flow and clear conditions, fog formation is supported. Will need to monitor near term forecasts to determine of any headlines are necessary.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears for late in this forecast period. Several forecast signals exist currently, pointing towards MCS development to develop across the central Kansas, then will approach the forecast area. Later forecasts will be able to refine the timing of this type of system.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through the much of the period. Surface high pressure will be situated just to the east of the state as southerly flow supplies moisture into the state around the high pressure. Aloft, a quasi-zonal pattern is expected to set up allowing several disturbances to track across the area.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize with any MCS's...damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF will depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, many areas across the state could see one to two inches through Friday with locally higher amounts possible.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Expect VFR conditions through the evening hrs...but some patchy fog will be possible overnight into Sun morning. MVFR or lower conditions could be seen at some sites as a result. Expect VFR conditions to return by late morning on Sun.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 64 86 68 87 / 0 10 10 50 Camden AR 67 90 69 89 / 10 20 0 30 Harrison AR 60 84 66 83 / 0 20 10 60 Hot Springs AR 67 87 70 88 / 10 20 10 40 Little Rock AR 68 87 71 89 / 0 10 10 40 Monticello AR 68 89 71 89 / 10 20 0 30 Mount Ida AR 64 86 69 86 / 10 30 10 40 Mountain Home AR 60 86 66 84 / 0 10 10 60 Newport AR 65 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 50 Pine Bluff AR 69 90 70 89 / 0 10 0 30 Russellville AR 66 86 70 87 / 0 20 10 50 Searcy AR 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 50 Stuttgart AR 69 87 71 88 / 0 10 10 40

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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