SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

This Saturday a cold front will be situated from the western Carolinas thru north central Georgia into southern Louisiana.
This scenario will allow markedly heighten precipitable water values (2.25 to 2.40") to pool across the region. A persistent pattern continues with warm temps aloft with mid level Atlantic ridge well offshore with our region on the western periphery of the high pressure area. With warm temperatures aloft (-5C at 5h)
not expecting much in the way of severe convection but some very localized heavy rain (1 to 3") is anticipated with slow moving storms. The weak pressure pattern will allowing both the Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway 301. With drier air aloft, some strong wind gust potential (30 to 45 mph) may occur with some pulse storms along with frequent lightning. Light east to southeast winds 5-10 mph will move onshore behind the Atlantic seabreeze with light SW winds behind the Gulf seabreeze. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the coast with low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will be in the 105-110 degree range near heat advisory levels, particularly over the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.

Saturday night, T'storms should end by midnight inland with very light southerly winds turning near calm well after sunset. Multi level cloud cover from fading T'storms will slowly disperse overnight to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast.

Very similar pattern will persist on Sunday. The cold front will hedge slightly southward with the feature over south central Georgia to near the FL Panhandle/Alabama border. The mid to upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf/FL peninsula. With the weak surface pressure gradient, both seabreezes should merge inland with locally heavy rainfall creating potential localized flooding concerns due to the high moisture content and slow storm motions.
Highs will be a only a degree or two lower compared to Saturday due to more numerous to widespread T'storm coverage and mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon/early evening hours with low to mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values will range 104-108 degrees, again on the precipice of heat advisory criteria.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Persistent west-central Atlantic ridging over does nudge eastward over the east-central part of the Basin with some weakening of the peripheral influence of the western part of the ridge over our region. A secondary front moves into nearly the same position as our weekend front keeping a persistent pattern over the region.
Temperatures aloft (H5) stay about the same (-4C to -5C). PWATs remain sticky (> 2.00 inches) thru much of the period. The pressure gradient remains weak with storm steering flow light S/SSW Monday through Tuesday. Weaker flow Wednesday and Thursday will likely bring merging seabreezes near Highway 301. High end scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers are anticipated through the period.

Temperatures will begin the period near normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s and and then warm to above normal the rest of the week as highs inland reach the mid 90s with isolated upper 90s not out of the question. Lows will be a little above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the immediate coast and St Johns river basin.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The Atlantic sea breeze front is progressing inland with a 2.5-3.5 kft broken cumulus deck ahead of it. Showers and thunderstorms are developing over interior areas along an old surface boundary extending from Hazlehurst to eastern Marion County. This will continue to develop as the squeeze play sets up between the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes. As generally occurs this should be between U.S. 301 and I-75 and will keep the TEMPO for KGNV for this afternoon. Otherwise, feel comfortable with VCTS for the other stations and will amend as necessary. Mist/Fog and low ceiling will develop in the predawn hours in the KGNV- KVQQ areas.



MARINE
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure area will ridge back across the FL peninsula through the period with nocturnal wind surges each night along the western periphery of the ridge. Also the east coast sea breeze front will develop over the near shore waters each afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend due to an easterly swell.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 94 75 92 / 60 70 40 70 SSI 79 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 50 JAX 76 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 50 SGJ 77 92 77 92 / 10 50 10 30 GNV 74 94 73 92 / 30 70 30 60 OCF 75 93 76 93 / 30 60 40 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-030-031- 035-120-136-140-220-236-240-322-340-422-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>134-149-162- 163-250-350-364.

AM...None.