Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Burlington, VT
July 4, 2024 1:18 AM EDT (05:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:12 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:23 AM Moonset 8:14 PM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 040517 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 117 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 117 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue to be widely scattered along a weak surface boundary moving through the region with no thunder detected. Thus, have removed thunder from the forecast for the remainder of the night, and showers will continue to be scattered while shifting eastward through the region through sunrise before dissipating and exiting east.
Lows will be quite mild in the mid 60s for most locations, though locally only lower 70s in portions of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.
For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of the day. However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop, with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The experimental heat risk product is showing 'moderate' risk for most of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with 1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics continue to be south of our CWA
High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast, one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with local MVFR at KMSS and KSLK through 09-12Z.
Otherwise, scattered showers through 12Z may briefly reduce vsby to MVFR/IFR but too difficult to forecast explicitly so just mentioned VCSH. After 12Z, BKN ceilings lift to SCT for the remainder of the period, continuing as VFR. Winds will also lower significantly through the period, only gusting above 20kts at KBTV through about 08Z, then lowering to 6kts or less after 12Z from the SSW. Areas of LLWS additionally shift east of the region by sunrise.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25 to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 117 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 117 AM EDT Thursday...Showers continue to be widely scattered along a weak surface boundary moving through the region with no thunder detected. Thus, have removed thunder from the forecast for the remainder of the night, and showers will continue to be scattered while shifting eastward through the region through sunrise before dissipating and exiting east.
Lows will be quite mild in the mid 60s for most locations, though locally only lower 70s in portions of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.
For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of the day. However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop, with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The experimental heat risk product is showing 'moderate' risk for most of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with 1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics continue to be south of our CWA
High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast, one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with local MVFR at KMSS and KSLK through 09-12Z.
Otherwise, scattered showers through 12Z may briefly reduce vsby to MVFR/IFR but too difficult to forecast explicitly so just mentioned VCSH. After 12Z, BKN ceilings lift to SCT for the remainder of the period, continuing as VFR. Winds will also lower significantly through the period, only gusting above 20kts at KBTV through about 08Z, then lowering to 6kts or less after 12Z from the SSW. Areas of LLWS additionally shift east of the region by sunrise.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25 to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBTV
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBTV
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBTV
Wind History graph: BTV
(wind in knots)
Burlington, VT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE