Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kenmore, NY
June 17, 2024 11:49 PM EDT (03:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 3:48 PM Moonset 1:31 AM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 718 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tuesday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night.
Friday - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 67 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 67 degrees.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 180223 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at many locations Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Little reprieve from the muggy conditions with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. We still can't rule out a few showers within this muggy conditions and unstable atmosphere. There also could be some fog in the Southern Tier river valleys tonight, especially at locations which receive rain.
Slightly warmer aloft on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures rising to about +20C. It will also be more humid with dew points rising to around 70. This combination will result in dangerously hot conditions outside with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Forecast highs trended slightly down due to the increased confidence in daytime instability showers and thunderstorms which will result in modest/localized relief from the heat. However, with this, dew points and moisture are slightly higher so heat index values still support a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area as dangerous heat builds through Thursday...
Surface high pressure will remained anchored along the eastern seaboard as a slow amplification of the eastern CONUS ridge takes place during the period. This will result in a deep southerly flow which will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and MUGGY conditions at night.
Mid level ridge will be firmly in place Wednesday with ensembles showing heights approaching 600 dm. 850 mb temperatures stay around +20C. Most high temperatures again in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s, with apparent temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s from midday through the afternoon. Nighttime temperatures will also remain elevated, with muggy conditions lasting even if heat index values drop some after sunset.
Model consensus shows the axis of the anomalously strong nearly 600 decameter ridge will be just to our south and southeast Thursday, just a slight jog from its position on Wednesday. This may bring 500 mb heights down just a smidge, along with surface temperatures/dew points possibly a couple of degrees cooler. All in all, very similar to the hot and steamy conditions expected for Wednesday, with heat index values again ranging from the mid 90s to very low 100s for the bulk of western and northcentral NY.
Positioning/proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most of convection, but afternoon heating and instability with some forcing along lake breeze boundaries may bring some showers and storms each afternoon. Better chance for an isolated shower/storm would be toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A very gradual day-to-day 'cooling' is then expected for the Fri-Sun timeframe as successive shortwaves traversing eastward through central and eastern Canada slowly suppress the ridge to the south, leaving a quasi-zonal flow in place across the CONUS by the end of the period. That said, still want to emphasize that conditions are still going to remain very warm to hot with elevated humidity levels. In terms of temperatures, upper 80s/low 90s Friday will slowly trend downward to the mid and upper 80s by the end of the weekend, with the highest elevations several degrees cooler respectively on any given day. Heat index values will reach the low to mid 90s for all of the lower terrain Friday afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon, and mid 80s to near 90 by Sunday.
In terms of precipitation, there will be some increase in convection potential as we close out the work week and head into next weekend.
This will be owed to mainly two things: Upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper ridge passing closer and closer to the area as the center of the ridge slowly sags further south through the period, while a surface boundary also sags south toward the region from Canada. Areas that do receive some showers/storms, will enjoy some relief, however any reprieve will only be temporary.
A deep trough, sfc low and cold front will track across the region on Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread showers possible. The most notable change with this system will be the cooler air moving in behind the front. Highs on Monday will drop back into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the entire area.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys. Confidence is too low to include in the KJHW TAF but there a risk it will develop there
Otherwise
VFR at all terminals.
Mainly VFR flight conditions on Tuesday morning then more showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours.
Localized MVFR or lower possible.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Hot and humid weather through at least Thursday with apparent temperatures during this time likely to reach 100F at many locations Tuesday and Wednesday. There will also be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Little reprieve from the muggy conditions with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. We still can't rule out a few showers within this muggy conditions and unstable atmosphere. There also could be some fog in the Southern Tier river valleys tonight, especially at locations which receive rain.
Slightly warmer aloft on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures rising to about +20C. It will also be more humid with dew points rising to around 70. This combination will result in dangerously hot conditions outside with heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Forecast highs trended slightly down due to the increased confidence in daytime instability showers and thunderstorms which will result in modest/localized relief from the heat. However, with this, dew points and moisture are slightly higher so heat index values still support a Heat Advisory for the entire forecast area.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
...Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area as dangerous heat builds through Thursday...
Surface high pressure will remained anchored along the eastern seaboard as a slow amplification of the eastern CONUS ridge takes place during the period. This will result in a deep southerly flow which will bring HOT and HUMID conditions during the day and WARM and MUGGY conditions at night.
Mid level ridge will be firmly in place Wednesday with ensembles showing heights approaching 600 dm. 850 mb temperatures stay around +20C. Most high temperatures again in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region with valley locations reaching the mid to upper 90s, with apparent temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s from midday through the afternoon. Nighttime temperatures will also remain elevated, with muggy conditions lasting even if heat index values drop some after sunset.
Model consensus shows the axis of the anomalously strong nearly 600 decameter ridge will be just to our south and southeast Thursday, just a slight jog from its position on Wednesday. This may bring 500 mb heights down just a smidge, along with surface temperatures/dew points possibly a couple of degrees cooler. All in all, very similar to the hot and steamy conditions expected for Wednesday, with heat index values again ranging from the mid 90s to very low 100s for the bulk of western and northcentral NY.
Positioning/proximity of the upper level ridge will suppress most of convection, but afternoon heating and instability with some forcing along lake breeze boundaries may bring some showers and storms each afternoon. Better chance for an isolated shower/storm would be toward the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley closer to the northern periphery of the ridge.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A very gradual day-to-day 'cooling' is then expected for the Fri-Sun timeframe as successive shortwaves traversing eastward through central and eastern Canada slowly suppress the ridge to the south, leaving a quasi-zonal flow in place across the CONUS by the end of the period. That said, still want to emphasize that conditions are still going to remain very warm to hot with elevated humidity levels. In terms of temperatures, upper 80s/low 90s Friday will slowly trend downward to the mid and upper 80s by the end of the weekend, with the highest elevations several degrees cooler respectively on any given day. Heat index values will reach the low to mid 90s for all of the lower terrain Friday afternoon, upper 80s to low 90s Saturday afternoon, and mid 80s to near 90 by Sunday.
In terms of precipitation, there will be some increase in convection potential as we close out the work week and head into next weekend.
This will be owed to mainly two things: Upper level disturbances riding the northern periphery of the upper ridge passing closer and closer to the area as the center of the ridge slowly sags further south through the period, while a surface boundary also sags south toward the region from Canada. Areas that do receive some showers/storms, will enjoy some relief, however any reprieve will only be temporary.
A deep trough, sfc low and cold front will track across the region on Sunday night into Monday morning with widespread showers possible. The most notable change with this system will be the cooler air moving in behind the front. Highs on Monday will drop back into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the entire area.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fog is possible in the Southern Tier river valleys. Confidence is too low to include in the KJHW TAF but there a risk it will develop there
Otherwise
VFR at all terminals.
Mainly VFR flight conditions on Tuesday morning then more showers and storms will develop during the afternoon hours.
Localized MVFR or lower possible.
Outlook...
Tuesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
High pressure will be near the eastern Great Lakes through much of this week, offering light winds, generally 15 knots or less on the lakes.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ001-002-006>008-010>012-019>021-085.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 5 mi | 50 min | S 5.1G | 75°F | 71°F | 30.05 | 68°F | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 13 mi | 50 min | 75°F | 30.07 | ||||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 20 mi | 50 min | 77°F | 30.05 | ||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 25 mi | 50 min | SSE 8G | 78°F | 30.04 | |||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 28 mi | 50 min | SSE 7.8G | 73°F | 68°F | 0 ft | 30.06 | |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 28 mi | 50 min | SSW 5.1G | 79°F | 30.04 | |||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 41 mi | 50 min | S 7G | 79°F | 30.06 | |||
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 42 mi | 50 min | WSW 12G | 76°F | 63°F | 1 ft | 30.02 |
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Buffalo, NY,
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