Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 2:13 AM   Moonset 3:38 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 940 Am Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers, then a chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - South winds less than 10 knots. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 63 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 022355 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
There is a potential for early morning fog Monday. Mainly dry weather is then expected through Tuesday, with widespread rain returning Wednesday. Periodic rain chances are then expected into the weekend. Temperatures remain above average through much of the week, cooling slightly into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower coverage will diminish into the late evening.
- There is a potential for fog between 3am and 8am Monday morning.
- Dry weather overnight, minus a few stray showers in the ridges.
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Evening Discussion: Weak lift has kept precipitation chances low and light across the region this evening. Despite a blanket of low-lvl cumulus across eastern OH/ western PA, fog potential will remain elevated with sufficient boundary layer moisture and light winds overnight. However, confidence is currently not high on the need for a widespread Fog Advisory.

Previous Discussion:

Rain should end this evening as ridging begins to build. Any lingering overnight showers will be confined to the higher terrain.

The lack of notable dry advection behind the system will increase the probability of fog as clouds begin to clear overnight.

Limited insolation and rain will keep afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will fall into the 60s/upper 50s overnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

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Upper ridging will build over the region Monday and Tuesday, keeping mostly dry for those days. CAMs do continue to hint at an isolated shower/thunderstorm or two with daytime heating, primarily over the ridges, so have left minimal POPs in each afternoon for those areas. Most of the area will remain dry.

Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing heights.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- More organized showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday.
- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.

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An unsettled period is expected Wednesday into the weekend as an upper level low slowly crosses from Manitoba through the Great Lakes.

The most focused period of convection associated with this trough/low is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strong southerly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday should lead to temperatures in the mid-80s by Wednesday afternoon, with dew points approaching 70F. This should contribute to moderate instability across the region and convection developing in the warm sector sometime during the afternoon/evening timeframe. A more focused line of storms is then possible as the front crosses into the overnight. With 20-30kts of deep-layer shear, this environment may support a low-end severe weather threat.

Brief clearing is expected behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday, but the upper-level low will dig across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday and into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery conditions in the forecast for the second half of the week. While there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of these showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general showery pattern persisting into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Very light and isolated showers have persisted across the area within a zone of broad, weak lift. These should exit to the east shortly after sunset, and coincidentally, probabilities and upstream observations indicate that ceilings may lift to VFR levels for a brief period after 02z coincident with intruding drier air.

Thereafter, the forecast into Monday morning still retains some uncertainty. Lingering low-level moisture points to the possibility of stratus and fog overnight, but the depth and coverage of any fog will depend at least somewhat on the amount of clearing that can occur during the late evening and early overnight period. Latest NBM guidance still suggests a larger spread in potential cloud coverage overnight than desired for a higher confidence widespread fog forecast. Even without sufficient radiational cooling, light wind and enough moisture should be in place for visibility restrictions. Hi res ensemble probability suggests in the neighborhood of 50-80% probability of IFR conditions across the region during the predawn hours, highest chances outside of PIT and LBE. LIFR probability sits rather high as well for the same areas, but given the reduced confidence at the time, opted not to lean on the aggressive solution save FKL/DUJ/MGW where guidance hit restrictions hardest. If clearing is on the minimal side, MVFR may end up being the dominant category.

Whatever restrictions are in place will end by 13-14Z as surface ridging and daytime heating mix out the low clouds and fog, bringing back VFR conditions.

Outlook
The next low pressure system is favored to arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening, promoting fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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