Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX
July 3, 2024 4:40 AM CDT (09:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:38 AM Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 3:09 AM Moonset 6:23 PM |
FXUS64 KLUB 030911 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Upper-level troughing is moving into the central CONUS this morning which is increasing lift across the forecast area. This is leading to persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms from near Denver City to Childress and points west where a monsoonal moisture plume is located. This activity is expected to last through at least sunrise and may actually continue through the rest of the day especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle which is where the moisture plume will retreat to by this afternoon. With the showers and cloud cover, temperatures will be coolest across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Farther south and east though sunny skies will boost temperatures back into the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. The hottest temperatures are expected across the southern Rolling Plains where high temperatures near 105 degrees are expected so a Heat Advisory has been issued for Kent, King, and Stonewall counties from 1 pm until 8 pm today. The moisture plume will slide south and east late this afternoon and early evening which will allow showers and thunderstorms to expand southeastward as well generally remaining along and west of a line from Tahoka to Childress. Similar to yesterday the main concerns with this activity will be brief heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds up to 60 mph. One shortwave will be moving east of our area around sunset so with the loss of daytime heating and decreasing upper-level support, shower and thunderstorm activity should come to an end by midnight. Locations where rain falls will cool back into the 60s and lower 70s while the rest of the area will remain in the mid and upper 70s. /WI
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The Fourth of July will be our last well above normal day in regards to temperatures this week thanks to an approaching cold front.
Unfortunately, this front won't arrive into our area until the late afternoon so temperatures will be able to warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s once again. The combination of heat and humidity may allow heat index values to approach 105 degrees across our eastern column of counties (Childress to Stonewall), so another Heat Advisory may be required. Ahead of the front, surface troughing will develop across the southern South Plains through the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Both along the front and the surface trough, surface CAPE of around 1500 J/kg will develop and with peak heating any capping will be eroded within these two zones. Shear will be fairly weak so multi-cell clusters will be the main storm type with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. The storms that form within the surface trough will be nearly stationary only drifting to the east which means that locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. As the front sweeps south through the evening this will help to increase storm speeds and lead to drying conditions behind it. So for those with outdoor evening Independence Day festivities, be prepared to seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches your area.
The cold front will be south of our area by early Friday morning which means a much cooler day is in store with high temperatures in the 80s! The right entrance region of an upper-level jet will be located over the forecast area so additional showers are possible through the day although with limited instability this activity should be localized. Another shortwave is expected to approach the region late Friday/early Saturday which may spark additional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms primarily across the far southern Texas Panhandle. An upper-level ridge will expand across the western CONUS this weekend with broad troughing remaining in place across the central CONUS. This will leave our forecast area within northwest flow aloft and hence give us several additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week as several shortwaves rotate overhead. This will also help to keep temperatures from warming too much through the end of the extended period with high temperatures mostly remaining in the upper 80s to mid 90s. /WI
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue at the start of this TAF period along a line from E57 to CDS impacting all TAF sites.
This activity will slowly lift northeast and dissipate through the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds will generally remain below 15 kts today initially out of the west with the shower activity, then out of the south and eventually southeast by this afternoon. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening mainly west of LBB and PVW. Check density altitude.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ038-043-044.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 411 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Upper-level troughing is moving into the central CONUS this morning which is increasing lift across the forecast area. This is leading to persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms from near Denver City to Childress and points west where a monsoonal moisture plume is located. This activity is expected to last through at least sunrise and may actually continue through the rest of the day especially across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle which is where the moisture plume will retreat to by this afternoon. With the showers and cloud cover, temperatures will be coolest across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Farther south and east though sunny skies will boost temperatures back into the upper 90s to near 105 degrees. The hottest temperatures are expected across the southern Rolling Plains where high temperatures near 105 degrees are expected so a Heat Advisory has been issued for Kent, King, and Stonewall counties from 1 pm until 8 pm today. The moisture plume will slide south and east late this afternoon and early evening which will allow showers and thunderstorms to expand southeastward as well generally remaining along and west of a line from Tahoka to Childress. Similar to yesterday the main concerns with this activity will be brief heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds up to 60 mph. One shortwave will be moving east of our area around sunset so with the loss of daytime heating and decreasing upper-level support, shower and thunderstorm activity should come to an end by midnight. Locations where rain falls will cool back into the 60s and lower 70s while the rest of the area will remain in the mid and upper 70s. /WI
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
The Fourth of July will be our last well above normal day in regards to temperatures this week thanks to an approaching cold front.
Unfortunately, this front won't arrive into our area until the late afternoon so temperatures will be able to warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s once again. The combination of heat and humidity may allow heat index values to approach 105 degrees across our eastern column of counties (Childress to Stonewall), so another Heat Advisory may be required. Ahead of the front, surface troughing will develop across the southern South Plains through the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. Both along the front and the surface trough, surface CAPE of around 1500 J/kg will develop and with peak heating any capping will be eroded within these two zones. Shear will be fairly weak so multi-cell clusters will be the main storm type with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. The storms that form within the surface trough will be nearly stationary only drifting to the east which means that locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. As the front sweeps south through the evening this will help to increase storm speeds and lead to drying conditions behind it. So for those with outdoor evening Independence Day festivities, be prepared to seek shelter if a thunderstorm approaches your area.
The cold front will be south of our area by early Friday morning which means a much cooler day is in store with high temperatures in the 80s! The right entrance region of an upper-level jet will be located over the forecast area so additional showers are possible through the day although with limited instability this activity should be localized. Another shortwave is expected to approach the region late Friday/early Saturday which may spark additional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms primarily across the far southern Texas Panhandle. An upper-level ridge will expand across the western CONUS this weekend with broad troughing remaining in place across the central CONUS. This will leave our forecast area within northwest flow aloft and hence give us several additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week as several shortwaves rotate overhead. This will also help to keep temperatures from warming too much through the end of the extended period with high temperatures mostly remaining in the upper 80s to mid 90s. /WI
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue at the start of this TAF period along a line from E57 to CDS impacting all TAF sites.
This activity will slowly lift northeast and dissipate through the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds will generally remain below 15 kts today initially out of the west with the shower activity, then out of the south and eventually southeast by this afternoon. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening mainly west of LBB and PVW. Check density altitude.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ038-043-044.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCDS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
Wind History graph: CDS
(wind in knots)
Lubbock, TX,
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