Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Current radar imagery shows thunderstorm activity to the north to west of our forecast area across the eastern Texas Panhandle and western portions of Oklahoma. Storms are beginning to creep into the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, however look to be just showers and are expected to remain sub-severe. Models are not handling these storms well with CAMs not picking up any activity. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 3 PM this afternoon for Childress County. These storms are slow moving, however are expected to clear the area in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area is on track to be quiet, but hot. Prevailing upper ridging as well as moderate to breezy southerly surface flow, high temperatures today are expected to reach triple digits by later this afternoon.

The caveat is the thunderstorm potential for this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across southern Kansas this afternoon along a dryline/surface trough before combining into a line and expanding southward through Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. The uncertainty at the moment is whether the line of storms will reach our forecast area or is an outflow from these storms triggers storm development in our area. Daytime heating should destabilize the atmosphere, however we will have to wait and see if these storms use up the moisture. With current radar imagery indicating the storms are beginning to diminish, the likelihood of that occurring is low.
Current soundings indicate really good instability off the Caprock with MUCAPE values above 5000 J/kg and effective shear of 45-50 knots making elevated severe thunderstorms possible. Any severe thunderstorms will have the potential for up to baseball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Thunderstorms, if any, are expected to clear the forecast area around midnight.

The rest of the overnight period will be quiet. A wide range of temperatures are expected with lows in the mid 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle up to upper 70s across southern Rolling Plains where lingering clouds overnight hinder radiative cooling.
Wednesday will be another hot one. The aforementioned upper ridge will remain stagnant over western to central portions of Texas.
Light southerly surface winds will increase to moderate to breezy through the afternoon. High temperatures will range from mid 90s across the far southern Texas Panhandle to just below Heat Advisory temperatures across the southern Rolling Plains. A passing shortwave will trigger the development of a lee surface low over northern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will shift surface flow to the southeast through the late afternoon and evening. Ascent from the passing shortwave as well as upslope surface flow, thunderstorm potential returns late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Models indicate isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across higher terrain in northeastern New Mexico before expanding southeast into our area. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with instability values around 3000 J/kg.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The hot temperatures are expected to continue through the long term forecast with possible Heat Advisory level temperatures by the weekend. Multiple passing upper shortwaves each afternoon will bring precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion will gradually flatten through the end of the week shifting to mostly zonal flow aloft.
Despite the flattening upper ridging, thickness increases and southerly surface flow each afternoon will continue to gradually increase temperatures through the rest of the week. If this trend continues, will most likely see at the least a Heat Advisory beginning Friday. Precipitation chances will return once again Thursday as an embedded upper shortwave passes across the Southern Plains. At the same time a weak boundary will push through the northern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the boundary before expanding into northern portions of our region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary. Another passing embedded shortwave will bring thunderstorm chances again Friday evening. Over the weekend, flow aloft will shift to the southwest as the upper ridging finally pushes eastward over the Gulf states and an upper trough amplifies over the western CONUS. Despite the moist southwesterly upper flow, the weekend looks to remain dry.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the vicinity of KLBB for the next couple of hours with low chances of directly hitting the TAF site. However, an abrupt wind shift to the east may occur as a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves close to the terminal. There is a higher chance of storms continuing to affect KPVW for the next few hours. Although this thunderstorm activity will move east through the evening, they are expected to dissipate before reaching KCDS.
Moisture will continue to stream into the region during the overnight hours leading to a slight chance of MVFR CIGS to all TAF sites. However, chances are too low to mention in the TAF at the moment.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.