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FXUS64 KLUB 071144 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 544 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Benign weather continues for the short term period with low level clouds tapering off by mid-morning across the South Plains with dry, warm, and breezy weather expected for the remainder of the day.
Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough over the Four Corners region where it is expected to track east into the Central Plains region tomorrow afternoon. This will then cause a series of upper level disturbances in the flow to track over the region as the upper level ridge shifts to the east.

At the surface, lee cyclogenesis will continue to amplify over SE Colorado tightening the pressure gradient across the FA. This will allow for breezy southwesterly surface flow to prevail over the region today with winds ranging from 20 to 25 mph, with the strongest winds across the far southern Texas Panhandle. This downslope component to the wind will aid in warm air advection across the region allowing for warm seasonal temperatures for this time of year in the 70s area-wide. While areas off the Caprock may even see a rogue temperature in the 80s. Elevated fire weather concerns will also be possible, especially for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon with minimum RH values in the low teens, breezy southwest winds, and ERC values generally not expected to be above the 50th percentile. Therefore, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 10 AM CST until 5 PM CST for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, clear skies will prevail with breezy conditions keeping overnight lows slightly warmer in the 40s to 50s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Breezy to windy conditions and mild temperatures will continue on Friday as our region remains beneath the base of a deepening upper level trough centered over the north-central CONUS. The strongest winds will be over the far SW TX Panhandle and the NW South Plains where deep diurnal mixing taps into a 40-50 kt 700mb jet, which will likely result in advisory-level winds in this area during the afternoon. Elsewhere, slightly weaker winds are expected given less robust 700mb flow, but high-end breezy conditions will still develop given the continued deepening of a fairly broad surface trough stretching from eastern New Mexico into the Red River valley. These winds along with continued above normal temperatures will result in elevated to perhaps near-critical fire weather conditions over a majority of the forecast area on Friday afternoon.

A dramatic cool-down is still expected behind a potent cold front early Saturday. However, guidance continues to trend deeper and slower with the evolution of the upper trough, with consensus now suggesting a secondary shortwave impulse will dive southeastward over the TX Panhandle on Saturday morning with the broader main trough axis not exiting to our east until Saturday night. The main impact of this evolution will be a later arrival of the main cold frontal push as weak pre-frontal surface troughing attempts to develop over portions of the TX Panhandle. Upstream surface ridging will finally become strong enough to force the front southward through our entire area by midday on Saturday, with CAA still expected to be strong enough to keep highs Saturday in the 40s to low 50s. A bit of light snow or snow flurries still looks plausible over the far SW TX Panhandle on Saturday morning as the lower and middle atmosphere briefly saturate behind the front, but we still do not expect any accumulation given the brief duration of any snowfall before drier air surges in from the north.

Following the departure of the upper trough late Saturday, flow aloft will de-amplify resulting in the return of dry weather and relatively mild temperatures Sunday through early next week.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance still remain in very good agreement developing a deep upper cutoff low over the Desert SW by next Wednesday, and this combined with a healthy fetch of deep-layer moisture brings a return of precipitation chances to the entire area during the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

LOW CIGS will continue to linger in the vicinity of KPVW this morning before tapering off by mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the remainder of the period.
Winds will continue to be breezy out of the west-southwest around 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible today.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle as warm temperatures in the 70s yield minimum RH values in the mid to upper teens along with southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph. ERC values are still generally below the 50th percentile today over most of the region, which will prevent any widespread instances of critical fire danger today. Therefore, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the far southwestern Texas Panhandle from 10 AM until 5 PM CST today.

Stronger winds and a drier airmass will result in elevated fire weather conditions over most of the region on Friday. Locally critical conditions may also develop over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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