Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper City, MI
July 3, 2024 5:17 AM EDT (09:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 9:47 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM Moonset 7:27 PM |
LSZ246 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-240625t0845z/ 347 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi - . Portage lake to huron island mi to lower entrance of portage canal to huron islands mi including keweenaw and huron bays - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4735 8601 4637 8665 4643 8677 4640 8690 4648 8702 4644 8724 4649 8741 4681 8772 4686 8800 4772 8759 time - .mot - .loc 0746z 274deg 52kt 4770 8729 4656 8795
the affected areas were - . Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi - . Portage lake to huron island mi to lower entrance of portage canal to huron islands mi including keweenaw and huron bays - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4735 8601 4637 8665 4643 8677 4640 8690 4648 8702 4644 8724 4649 8741 4681 8772 4686 8800 4772 8759 time - .mot - .loc 0746z 274deg 52kt 4770 8729 4656 8795
LSZ200
No data
No data
FXUS63 KMQT 030831 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 431 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong westerly winds this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph, and up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw.
- Diurnally driven pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible this afternoon/evening.
- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.
- Widespread moderate rain expected early Friday into Saturday.
Some thunder possible.
- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue this weekend...especially Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Current radar mosaic this morning is most active across the eastern half of Upper Mighigan where rain showers are lingering in association with a shortwave. Elsewhere, the western half has been dry all night, and this drier air will eventually overspread the eastern half as well through the course of the morning. Nonetheless, there could be enough instability to support some diurnally driven/pop-up showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to soar into the low to mid 80s across much of the interior, except for upper 70s along the spine of the Keweenaw. And, it will be another breezy day as mixing supports widespready westerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph, up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw. Look for improvement by evening with decoupling.
Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, but cannot rule out some lingering showers/thunderstorms that could form and linger into the evening across the eastern third of the UP.
Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Guidance continues to present a consistent picture of the coming pattern, with the main item of interest being a slow moving system through the central Plains and Upper Great Lakes late Thursday into the weekend. Another system looks to swing through late this weekend.
Starting off on Thursday, Independence Day, a meso high over Lake Superior looks to largely keep the region dry. However, questions surrounding the placement of an inverted surface trough and diurnal destabilization are still present, and some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and evening still look possible. CAM runs have dialed this potential back some from the largely medium range guidance that went into previous forecast packages, but there are still some models that bring light rain across the south or west that could impact afternoon/evening outdoor plans. Expect daytime highs to into the 70s with some low 80s being possible south-central and interior west.
Upstream, a mid-upper level low skating through the north-central Plains will continue its eastward journey into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. Its then expected to lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday morning. At the surface, a low will deepen on Friday as it slowly moves through Wisconsin, reaching northern Lower Michigan Friday night. For the past few days, guidance has consistently tracked in this fashion, which positions our forecast area on the northern flank of the low and within its deformation/inverted trough axis. Recent GEFS and EC ensemble surface low clustering continues this, with the broad clustering present being mostly attributed to timing differences among the ensemble members. The effect of this relative position will mean widespread moderate rainfall will be possible through the day Friday and into early Saturday. Recent EC probability of exceeding 0.5 inches in our forecast area is largely 50-80%. This is a little higher then its GEFS counterpart. Something of note is the deterministic spread vs ensemble mean spread is noticeable. For example, the 0z GFS is suggesting 2-3 inches of rain across the west while the ensemble mean struggles to reach 0.5 inches. This suggests that a good bit of timing and convective influences still need to be resolved as this system moves into the region.
The rain should end west to east through the morning hours on Saturday, with weak and brief ridging spreading over the area through the day. This should result in a dry day for the west and a dry afternoon/evening in the east. A weakening shortwave moving through the Dakotas/Minnesota will follow by Sunday. This may support another round of showers/thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday. If a surface low develops along the transiting cold front to our south, as the EC is suggesting, this may extend through Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Lingering showers at SAW will taper off shortly, but IFR cigs are expected to linger through daybreak if not a bit after. Cigs should scatter out with VFR expected by mid-morning. A similar trend toward VFR should be seen at IWD/CMX, though likely earlier. Winds shift westerly during the day today, with gusts around 20 kt at IWD and approaching 30 kt at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Winds continue to settle this morning, falling to 20kts or less before southwest winds near 25kts develop in the western portions of Lake Superior, mainly between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. Light winds of 20kts or less settle in tonight and persist into Friday. At this point, a low moving through the Upper Great Lakes may support winds increasing to near 20-25kts Friday evening into Saturday.
Winds lighten after this through the remainder of the weekend to 20kts or below.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 431 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong westerly winds this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph, and up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw.
- Diurnally driven pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible this afternoon/evening.
- Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day.
- Widespread moderate rain expected early Friday into Saturday.
Some thunder possible.
- While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue this weekend...especially Sunday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Current radar mosaic this morning is most active across the eastern half of Upper Mighigan where rain showers are lingering in association with a shortwave. Elsewhere, the western half has been dry all night, and this drier air will eventually overspread the eastern half as well through the course of the morning. Nonetheless, there could be enough instability to support some diurnally driven/pop-up showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to soar into the low to mid 80s across much of the interior, except for upper 70s along the spine of the Keweenaw. And, it will be another breezy day as mixing supports widespready westerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph, up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw. Look for improvement by evening with decoupling.
Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, but cannot rule out some lingering showers/thunderstorms that could form and linger into the evening across the eastern third of the UP.
Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Guidance continues to present a consistent picture of the coming pattern, with the main item of interest being a slow moving system through the central Plains and Upper Great Lakes late Thursday into the weekend. Another system looks to swing through late this weekend.
Starting off on Thursday, Independence Day, a meso high over Lake Superior looks to largely keep the region dry. However, questions surrounding the placement of an inverted surface trough and diurnal destabilization are still present, and some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and evening still look possible. CAM runs have dialed this potential back some from the largely medium range guidance that went into previous forecast packages, but there are still some models that bring light rain across the south or west that could impact afternoon/evening outdoor plans. Expect daytime highs to into the 70s with some low 80s being possible south-central and interior west.
Upstream, a mid-upper level low skating through the north-central Plains will continue its eastward journey into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. Its then expected to lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday morning. At the surface, a low will deepen on Friday as it slowly moves through Wisconsin, reaching northern Lower Michigan Friday night. For the past few days, guidance has consistently tracked in this fashion, which positions our forecast area on the northern flank of the low and within its deformation/inverted trough axis. Recent GEFS and EC ensemble surface low clustering continues this, with the broad clustering present being mostly attributed to timing differences among the ensemble members. The effect of this relative position will mean widespread moderate rainfall will be possible through the day Friday and into early Saturday. Recent EC probability of exceeding 0.5 inches in our forecast area is largely 50-80%. This is a little higher then its GEFS counterpart. Something of note is the deterministic spread vs ensemble mean spread is noticeable. For example, the 0z GFS is suggesting 2-3 inches of rain across the west while the ensemble mean struggles to reach 0.5 inches. This suggests that a good bit of timing and convective influences still need to be resolved as this system moves into the region.
The rain should end west to east through the morning hours on Saturday, with weak and brief ridging spreading over the area through the day. This should result in a dry day for the west and a dry afternoon/evening in the east. A weakening shortwave moving through the Dakotas/Minnesota will follow by Sunday. This may support another round of showers/thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday. If a surface low develops along the transiting cold front to our south, as the EC is suggesting, this may extend through Tuesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Lingering showers at SAW will taper off shortly, but IFR cigs are expected to linger through daybreak if not a bit after. Cigs should scatter out with VFR expected by mid-morning. A similar trend toward VFR should be seen at IWD/CMX, though likely earlier. Winds shift westerly during the day today, with gusts around 20 kt at IWD and approaching 30 kt at CMX.
MARINE
Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Winds continue to settle this morning, falling to 20kts or less before southwest winds near 25kts develop in the western portions of Lake Superior, mainly between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. Light winds of 20kts or less settle in tonight and persist into Friday. At this point, a low moving through the Upper Great Lakes may support winds increasing to near 20-25kts Friday evening into Saturday.
Winds lighten after this through the remainder of the weekend to 20kts or below.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCMX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCMX
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCMX
Wind History graph: CMX
(wind in knots)
Marquette, MI,
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