Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper City, MI
April 19, 2024 10:29 PM EDT (02:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:52 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 3:32 PM Moonset 4:37 AM |
LSZ246 /o.can.kmqt.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 503 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4697 8806 4711 8813 4714 8803 4698 8789 time - .mot - .loc 2102z 249deg 34kt 4704 8797
the affected areas were - . Point isabelle to lower entrance of portage canal mi - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4697 8806 4711 8813 4714 8803 4698 8789 time - .mot - .loc 2102z 249deg 34kt 4704 8797
LSZ200
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 192300 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- West winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph through tonight.
- Hit and miss precipitation into Saturday, then dry through Monday.
- Fire weather concerns increase through Monday with lowering RH's and breezy winds.
- Best chances for precipitation arrive early next week with low pressure system. Then dry weather through Thursday night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 432 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Scattered rain and snow showers in the cold cyclonic flow of a northern Ontario low have been persistent on radar all day and are expected to linger through tonight. With minimal QPF though, any accumulations through the period will not amount to more than a few hundredths of an inch, a tenth of an inch at most. The main story today has been the strong west winds with widespread gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Strongest reports have been across the Keweenaw where gusts have peaked near 45 mph, but it has been very localized.
With a consistent pressure gradient though, west winds will continue to gust up to 25 to 35 mph through the night. Meanwhile, it has been a chilly day with highs only topping off in the 40s, and tonight will even be a tad below normal with projected lows dipping into the mid 20s across the interior west. Elsewhere, upper 20s/low 30s will be predominant over the remainder of Upper Michigan.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Saturday starts with a broad trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes alongside a sfc high pressure building southeast over the Plains. With Lake Superior around 2C and 850mb temps dropping down to around -10C by Saturday morning, delta-ts will be just shy of the ideal profile for LES. Expect a brief period of light snow showers in the morning as a shortwave trough moves east through the Great Lakes. Inversion heights will be around 5kft with some moisture reaching into the DGZ, however dry air increasing at the sfc with limited forcing will be limiting factors. Overall confidence in snow showers is low with dry weather expected in the afternoon as cloud cover clears out. Accumulations should remain below 0.5". Temps will be cooler than normal during the day in the 40s; temps drop into the mid to upper 20s in the interior with low to mid 30s along the lakeshores Saturday night. While west to northwest winds will be gusting up to 15-25 mph during the early part of the day, min RHs are expected to remain above 30%, lowering fire weather concerns. A very weak shortwave drops south over the UP Saturday night, but dry model soundings indicate no precip is to be expected.
The mid level trough axis moves from northern Ontario on Sunday into Quebec Sunday night. PVA stays north of of Lake Superior, but a sfc trough and cold front will drop south across the UP Sunday afternoon increasing cloud cover and bringing some gusty northwest winds up to 20-25 mph. With highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south central) and low level lapse rates around 7-8C/km, RHs will approach 25-30%. This increases fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, especially over the south central UP. Winds become light again overnight with sfc high pressure moving east over the UP. With good radiative cooling, lows fall into the mid 20s to low 30s with coldest temps expected over the east where the best subsidence will be. Warmer than normal temps are more broadly forecast on Monday in the mid 40s to low 60s, warmest interior west. Elevated fire weather concerns return Monday afternoon with min RHs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, lowest west, and gusts increasing to around 15-20 mph.
A mid level closed low forms over Saskatchewan Sunday night, moving southeast through the midwest on Tuesday as it opens up in to a trough. The trough then continues southeast into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. An associated sfc low follows a similar track, just a bit more to the north through the Great Lakes Basin. This will bring the best chances for precip during the extended forecast with showers moving in from the west Monday night, continuing into Tuesday night. Main p-type will be rain, however there is some low chances for some snow to mix in on the back side of the low (<50% chance). Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing back dry weather into Friday while mid level ridging over the rockies moves east over the Great Lakes. Uncertainty in the forecast grows from here regarding the timing and track of shortwaves riding northeast into the Great Lakes late next week into the weekend bringing our next precip. Thus, left NBM PoPs which increase Friday into the weekend as models indicate a sfc low or two ejecting off the rockies and heading northwest into the region. The southwest flow does bring a return to above normal temps late this week and into the weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Generally VFR conditions are expected early this evening before dipping down into MVFR later tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, expect the light snow showers to continue across the TAF sites tonight into Saturday morning, with an intensification in the shower activity looking to happen late tonight after midnight. While the chances are low (around 20%), we could see vis drop down to IFR for an hour or two tonight through Saturday morning over KCMX and KIWD. Otherwise, there is about a 50% chance across all of the TAF sites that the cigs will get below 2 kft; while some of the model guidance such as the RAP13 is hinting at this, the statistical guidance such as the LAMP, MET, and MAV only have conditions deteriorating to as low as the 2 to 3 kft cig range. Therefore, given the high uncertainty, I've included a SCT grouping in each of the TAFs late tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs raise and the clouds scatter out Saturday as ridging tries to move into the region from the west. Thus, we should see a universal return to VFR conditions by around noon Saturday. Gusty W to NW winds are expected throughout the TAF period across all of the terminals, with the highest winds expected over KCMX (with gusts up to 30 knots possible).
MARINE
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Widespread westerly winds of 20-30 kts with some gales to 35 kts over the central 3rd of the lake will continue into this evening.
Winds then veer northwest tonight, maintaining around 20-30 kts. On Saturday winds back west, dropping down to around 20-25 kts Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front drops south across the lake on Sunday. That being said, high pressure building in from the west will increase stability and lower winds below 20 kts across the entire lake by Sunday night. Winds then are expected to remain below 20 kts through Monday as high pressure moves east over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system early next week will see east winds increasing to 20-25 kts Monday night, becoming north 20-30 kts Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds look to fall back below 20 kts on Wednesday behind the low pressure system, continuing through most of next week as high pressure returns.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ240.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ241-247>249.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244-263- 264.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ242>244.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ245-246-265>267.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221- 248-250.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- West winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph through tonight.
- Hit and miss precipitation into Saturday, then dry through Monday.
- Fire weather concerns increase through Monday with lowering RH's and breezy winds.
- Best chances for precipitation arrive early next week with low pressure system. Then dry weather through Thursday night.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 432 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Scattered rain and snow showers in the cold cyclonic flow of a northern Ontario low have been persistent on radar all day and are expected to linger through tonight. With minimal QPF though, any accumulations through the period will not amount to more than a few hundredths of an inch, a tenth of an inch at most. The main story today has been the strong west winds with widespread gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Strongest reports have been across the Keweenaw where gusts have peaked near 45 mph, but it has been very localized.
With a consistent pressure gradient though, west winds will continue to gust up to 25 to 35 mph through the night. Meanwhile, it has been a chilly day with highs only topping off in the 40s, and tonight will even be a tad below normal with projected lows dipping into the mid 20s across the interior west. Elsewhere, upper 20s/low 30s will be predominant over the remainder of Upper Michigan.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Saturday starts with a broad trough over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes alongside a sfc high pressure building southeast over the Plains. With Lake Superior around 2C and 850mb temps dropping down to around -10C by Saturday morning, delta-ts will be just shy of the ideal profile for LES. Expect a brief period of light snow showers in the morning as a shortwave trough moves east through the Great Lakes. Inversion heights will be around 5kft with some moisture reaching into the DGZ, however dry air increasing at the sfc with limited forcing will be limiting factors. Overall confidence in snow showers is low with dry weather expected in the afternoon as cloud cover clears out. Accumulations should remain below 0.5". Temps will be cooler than normal during the day in the 40s; temps drop into the mid to upper 20s in the interior with low to mid 30s along the lakeshores Saturday night. While west to northwest winds will be gusting up to 15-25 mph during the early part of the day, min RHs are expected to remain above 30%, lowering fire weather concerns. A very weak shortwave drops south over the UP Saturday night, but dry model soundings indicate no precip is to be expected.
The mid level trough axis moves from northern Ontario on Sunday into Quebec Sunday night. PVA stays north of of Lake Superior, but a sfc trough and cold front will drop south across the UP Sunday afternoon increasing cloud cover and bringing some gusty northwest winds up to 20-25 mph. With highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south central) and low level lapse rates around 7-8C/km, RHs will approach 25-30%. This increases fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, especially over the south central UP. Winds become light again overnight with sfc high pressure moving east over the UP. With good radiative cooling, lows fall into the mid 20s to low 30s with coldest temps expected over the east where the best subsidence will be. Warmer than normal temps are more broadly forecast on Monday in the mid 40s to low 60s, warmest interior west. Elevated fire weather concerns return Monday afternoon with min RHs in the mid 20s to mid 30s, lowest west, and gusts increasing to around 15-20 mph.
A mid level closed low forms over Saskatchewan Sunday night, moving southeast through the midwest on Tuesday as it opens up in to a trough. The trough then continues southeast into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. An associated sfc low follows a similar track, just a bit more to the north through the Great Lakes Basin. This will bring the best chances for precip during the extended forecast with showers moving in from the west Monday night, continuing into Tuesday night. Main p-type will be rain, however there is some low chances for some snow to mix in on the back side of the low (<50% chance). Sfc high pressure returns to the Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing back dry weather into Friday while mid level ridging over the rockies moves east over the Great Lakes. Uncertainty in the forecast grows from here regarding the timing and track of shortwaves riding northeast into the Great Lakes late next week into the weekend bringing our next precip. Thus, left NBM PoPs which increase Friday into the weekend as models indicate a sfc low or two ejecting off the rockies and heading northwest into the region. The southwest flow does bring a return to above normal temps late this week and into the weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Generally VFR conditions are expected early this evening before dipping down into MVFR later tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, expect the light snow showers to continue across the TAF sites tonight into Saturday morning, with an intensification in the shower activity looking to happen late tonight after midnight. While the chances are low (around 20%), we could see vis drop down to IFR for an hour or two tonight through Saturday morning over KCMX and KIWD. Otherwise, there is about a 50% chance across all of the TAF sites that the cigs will get below 2 kft; while some of the model guidance such as the RAP13 is hinting at this, the statistical guidance such as the LAMP, MET, and MAV only have conditions deteriorating to as low as the 2 to 3 kft cig range. Therefore, given the high uncertainty, I've included a SCT grouping in each of the TAFs late tonight into Saturday morning. Cigs raise and the clouds scatter out Saturday as ridging tries to move into the region from the west. Thus, we should see a universal return to VFR conditions by around noon Saturday. Gusty W to NW winds are expected throughout the TAF period across all of the terminals, with the highest winds expected over KCMX (with gusts up to 30 knots possible).
MARINE
Issued at 452 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Widespread westerly winds of 20-30 kts with some gales to 35 kts over the central 3rd of the lake will continue into this evening.
Winds then veer northwest tonight, maintaining around 20-30 kts. On Saturday winds back west, dropping down to around 20-25 kts Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front drops south across the lake on Sunday. That being said, high pressure building in from the west will increase stability and lower winds below 20 kts across the entire lake by Sunday night. Winds then are expected to remain below 20 kts through Monday as high pressure moves east over the Great Lakes. A low pressure system early next week will see east winds increasing to 20-25 kts Monday night, becoming north 20-30 kts Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds look to fall back below 20 kts on Wednesday behind the low pressure system, continuing through most of next week as high pressure returns.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ240.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for LSZ241-247>249.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ242>244-263- 264.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ242>244.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ245-246-265>267.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221- 248-250.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| GTRM4 - Superior Grand Traverse Bay, MI | 6 mi | 89 min | W 15G | 37°F | 29.90 | |||
| PCLM4 - Portage Canal, MI | 21 mi | 49 min | NW 17G | 38°F | 29.73 | |||
| KP59 | 22 mi | 38 min | NW 12G | 38°F | 29.90 | 27°F | ||
| BIGM4 - Big Bay, MI | 34 mi | 49 min | W 6G | 38°F | 29.88 | |||
| STDM4 - Stannard Rock, MI | 49 mi | 29 min | 23G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCMX HOUGHTON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI | 19 sm | 36 min | W 15G27 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 27°F | 69% | 29.89 |
Marquette, MI,
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