SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The remnants of Beryl will swing into the Mid-South on Tuesday with an upper-level low moving west across the northern Bahamas toward the east coast of Florida and an old boundary draped across the Southeast. This coupled with high PWATs of 2 to 2.3 inches will lead to very high rain chances Tuesday afternoon across the area. Rain chances are around 70 to 80 percent Tuesday afternoon.
This level of moisture could lead to some locally heavy downpours and nuisance type flooding should storms move slowly or train.
Otherwise, it will remain hot and muggy with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Heat index values will be around 104-109.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The remnants of Beryl get swept away and absorbed by a trough over the Great Lakes. This will send a weak cold front through the area Wednesday, but it may stall just south of our area. Upper-level ridging noses its way into our area, and PWATs may come down slightly -- more like 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Thus, rain chances will still remain elevated on Wednesday (around 60 to 70 percent) before dropping on Thursday in the wake of the frontal passage. Rain chances will increase again heading into the weekend as moisture increases yet again.

Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the rise as upper-level ridging builds back, but we'll have some "drier" air in its wake. Dew points will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s as opposed to mid 70s to lower 80s. This will finally bring a short-lived reprieve to our daily Heat Advisories with heat index values closer to 100 to 106. However, actual temperatures will still be in the middle to upper 90s with lows in the 70s. With the increase in moisture over the weekend, it looks like we could be in for a return to Heat Advisory conditions next weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected across the area this afternoon and evening and may cause locally heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. A few hours of lowering ceilings will be possible overnight, with chances looking more likely for ABY than the other terminals. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally light west to southwest winds are expected over the next several days with seas around 1 to 3 feet. Long period swells will diminish over the next day or so as Beryl moves inland over southeast Texas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each night and morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Heat index values will be high each afternoon.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

No significant hydro concerns are anticipated. Daily showers and storms will have plenty of moisture to work with and could produce locally heavy downpours in a short period of time. This could lead to daily chances for nuisance flooding or perhaps flash flooding in isolated cases. But widespread flood concerns are not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 77 95 78 92 / 20 60 30 80 Panama City 79 91 81 90 / 10 50 30 80 Dothan 76 95 76 93 / 30 40 20 70 Albany 76 93 77 94 / 50 60 30 70 Valdosta 77 95 77 93 / 40 60 30 80 Cross City 77 94 78 91 / 20 50 30 80 Apalachicola 79 89 81 89 / 10 40 30 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148- 155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.