Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS
July 3, 2024 4:30 AM CDT (09:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:21 AM Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 2:54 AM Moonset 6:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDDC 030700 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday during the late afternoon and evening hours mainly west of US-283.
- Cold front on Thursday will bring cool, pleasant weather for holiday festivities.
- Temperatures will stay around or below normal through mid-next week, with little chances for precipitation.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Recent water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals broad longwave troughing is spread out from the Pacific Northwest all the way through the central/northern plains and into the Midwest. At the surface, latest observations show the cold front has stalled out near the border of the OK and TX panhandles, extending northeast from there. A few showers and thunderstorms were noted across our far southwest and west zones in the post-frontal upslope flow region, and these should gradually expand in coverage through the early morning hours into daytime Wednesday supported by 850-mb warm air advection and moist upslope flow. This activity will be sub-severe, posing only a heavy rain and lightning threat. Abundant cloud cover and rain-cooled air will also keep temperatures well below normal across our area, as afternoon highs only reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough embedded within the broader trough will dig southeast towards the central Rockies, and aid in the development of convection over the higher terrain in southeast CO. These thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as they approach western KS, and cross into our area around 23-00Z.
Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will exist ahead of this activity initially, fostering a severe risk with primary hazards of large hail and damaging wind gusts, but as the boundary layer cools, thunderstorms will likely run out of steam before reaching US-283.
On Independence Day, short range ensembles agree the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will eject into the central/northern plains, sending a reasonably strong cold front southward through our area. While this frontal passage is not expected to bring any chance for precipitation, it will transport cooler air into southwest KS, allowing for a very pleasant summer afternoon for Independence Day festivities with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Daytime Friday, northerly surface winds will continue through much of the day as the upper level longwave trough begins to shift east ahead of a strong ridge building over the far western CONUS. As a result of the persistent cold air advection, another day of below normal temperatures is expected as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid 80s. Over the weekend and into early next week, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will make limited progress eastward behind the stubborn longwave trough. Consequently, relatively low 500-mb heights will maintain below average temperatures for southwest KS until mid-next week. However, this will be largely a dry period, with the only chance for precipitation surrounding Sunday evening as suggested by LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" in the 30-50% range favoring the southeast half of our CWA
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, save for the last few hours at HYS when MVFR stratus moves in. Current easterly winds aoa 12 kts will gradually veer to southeasterly by early afternoon Wednesday, then become light and variable around sunset.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday during the late afternoon and evening hours mainly west of US-283.
- Cold front on Thursday will bring cool, pleasant weather for holiday festivities.
- Temperatures will stay around or below normal through mid-next week, with little chances for precipitation.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Recent water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals broad longwave troughing is spread out from the Pacific Northwest all the way through the central/northern plains and into the Midwest. At the surface, latest observations show the cold front has stalled out near the border of the OK and TX panhandles, extending northeast from there. A few showers and thunderstorms were noted across our far southwest and west zones in the post-frontal upslope flow region, and these should gradually expand in coverage through the early morning hours into daytime Wednesday supported by 850-mb warm air advection and moist upslope flow. This activity will be sub-severe, posing only a heavy rain and lightning threat. Abundant cloud cover and rain-cooled air will also keep temperatures well below normal across our area, as afternoon highs only reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave trough embedded within the broader trough will dig southeast towards the central Rockies, and aid in the development of convection over the higher terrain in southeast CO. These thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity as they approach western KS, and cross into our area around 23-00Z.
Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will exist ahead of this activity initially, fostering a severe risk with primary hazards of large hail and damaging wind gusts, but as the boundary layer cools, thunderstorms will likely run out of steam before reaching US-283.
On Independence Day, short range ensembles agree the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough will eject into the central/northern plains, sending a reasonably strong cold front southward through our area. While this frontal passage is not expected to bring any chance for precipitation, it will transport cooler air into southwest KS, allowing for a very pleasant summer afternoon for Independence Day festivities with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Daytime Friday, northerly surface winds will continue through much of the day as the upper level longwave trough begins to shift east ahead of a strong ridge building over the far western CONUS. As a result of the persistent cold air advection, another day of below normal temperatures is expected as afternoon highs only reach the low to mid 80s. Over the weekend and into early next week, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will make limited progress eastward behind the stubborn longwave trough. Consequently, relatively low 500-mb heights will maintain below average temperatures for southwest KS until mid-next week. However, this will be largely a dry period, with the only chance for precipitation surrounding Sunday evening as suggested by LREF probability of QPF > 0.1" in the 30-50% range favoring the southeast half of our CWA
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, save for the last few hours at HYS when MVFR stratus moves in. Current easterly winds aoa 12 kts will gradually veer to southeasterly by early afternoon Wednesday, then become light and variable around sunset.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDDC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDDC
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDDC
Wind History graph: DDC
(wind in knots)
Dodge City, KS,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE