Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:38 AM   Moonset 3:59 PM

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FXUS63 KDDC 021904 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A complex of severe thunderstorms tonight with wind and hail threats

- Summer-like pattern with hotter highs and generally drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday

- Lower uncertainty with a return of isolated storms for rest of the period

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The atmosphere has been fairly worked over early this afternoon in the wake of the morning storms. This is particularly true for the central and eastern zones of the FA. This does introduce some uncertainty in the forecast as far as storm redevelopment goes. For example, the 3 km NAM has storms developing, but quickly kills this activity as the storms heads east towards the more stable air. This cam solution is different than the HRRR and ARW. These two models reload the atmosphere with 3000 J/kg of CAPE redeveloping across the western zones by late afternoon. Examining surface dewpoints does show 60+ dewpoints advecting in, so am tempted to go with the solution that shows another severe thunderstorm complex rolling across the Kansas plains late this afternoon and into the mid evening hours. Storms should develop along a lee trough late this afternoon either along the Colorado border or just east of it. This activity should then head east and be along the Highway 283 corridor by mid evening. As far as threats are concerned, the primary threat is damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph. 1-3" hail is also possible if there are supercell structures. Bulk shear though is more marginal today, so think the primary threat would be the microbursts. Activity should be diurnally driven with a possible weakening trend as this activity heads east of Highway 283 to the far eastern zones late this evening. Otherwise, lows tonight will be seasonal with values in the 50s and 60s. A more quiet day is expected Monday.
If there were to be any storms, it would be relegated to the eastern zones and only slight pops at that. Otherwise, highs will be seasonal with values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

EPS has a 500-hPa ridge developing across the spine of the southern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. This building ridge is also reflected in EPS probabilities of +90F in the 50% to 70% range midweek. The long and short of it is that a return to summer-like weather is expected midweek with generally dry conditions and hotter highs.
Now how long these warmer temperatures will last is in question as EPS flattens the ridge next weekend. Several of the EC ensemble members show returning storm chances next weekend. At this point, will just go with the NBM solution due to the uncertainty. That has pops in the 15% to 30% range by the end of the period. A general decrease in temperatures may be possible with storms around, although that is not 100% certain as some of the EC ensemble members are dry. Will watch for now and look for any particular trends in the ensembles as time goes forward in future runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main focus on the TAFs is another complex of thunderstorms developing across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 23Z to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will include VCTS and CB groups in for the terminals to account for this activity. Wind gusts +50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is too early and a bit uncertain to put these outflow winds in the TAFs for now. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence increases. Some GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt out side of storms.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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