Sunrise 5:10 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:42 AM   Moonset 4:11 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 020809 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 409 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Another dry and warm afternoon is expected today before a weak disturbance brings a shower or two to portions of the area tonight. Warm weather continues on Monday and Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day, mainly across the higher terrain. Rain chances increase mid to late week as a larger system and cold front approach from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level ridge will begin to gradually weaken as an upper- level shortwave disturbance approaches from the west.
The approach of this disturbance will continue to spread some high clouds across the region through this afternoon but maintain dry weather. After another cool morning, temperatures will still rise into the 70s and 80s with good mixing and 850 hPa temperatures between +12C and +14C.

While the upper- level shortwave will weaken as it moves across our area later this afternoon and through tonight, enough moisture may remain for a shower or two to occur, mainly across the western Mohawk Valley and locations south of Albany. Any showers that do occur should be very light and not amount to much if anything. Otherwise, skies will trend mostly cloudy for the night with temperatures falling into the 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging will reestablish itself near our region early in the week with it cresting just to our west. We will be located within north to northwesterly flow aloft as some weak upper level energy tracks up and over the ridge. Warm conditions will continue with humidity levels increasing slightly each day as low level flow turns more southerly with an area of high pressure setting up to our east near eastern New England.
Enough instability should develop each afternoon for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage looks very sparse on Monday so PoPs were kept below slight chance at this time. Slightly greater coverage is expected for Tuesday so included slight chance PoPs and isolated coverage wording. Most of the activity should favor the higher elevations. Highs will reach the 80s in the valleys each day with mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations.

A warm front ahead of our late week system could result in some lingering showers across western areas Tuesday night. Lows will fall into the mid-50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
After a nice stretch of dry weather, the long term forecast period will feature a fairly wet pattern as a result of a large-scale, upper-level disturbance...

Wednesday should begin dry for many, outside a few isolated to scattered showers north and west of Albany, with weak upper ridging and adjacent surface high pressure remaining in control.
However, shower chances increase across eastern New York and western New England throughout the day Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge weakens and shifts east and an upper-level, closed low pressure system settles across the border of Manitoba and Ontario. Narrow, negatively-tilted troughing extending south and east through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will abut the back side of the eastward- propagating ridge to create a southwest to northeast moisture axis from the Gulf of Mexico, increasing environmental moisture across the region.
Rain will gradually spread into the region from west- southwest to east-northeast by late Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon as the upper low drifts south and east toward to upper Midwest.

Broad cyclonic flow will remain in place through the remainder of the extended forecast period as the low slowly slides south and east into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and possibly some thunderstorms will result from its influence across the region with the best chance for widespread rain likely spanning Wednesday night through Thursday. At this time, there is still some uncertainty in the extent and strength of any resultant thunderstorms throughout the end of the week and into the weekend due to uncertainty in amount of instability present across the region. Will continue to monitor the convective potential throughout the coming days.

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the long term period with highs anticipated in the mid 70s to low 80s. Thursday through Saturday, highs will generally be in the mid/upper 60s to mid/upper 70s with pockets of low 60s possible above 1500 ft.
Low temperatures will begin in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night and Thursday night, falling to widespread 50s Friday night and Saturday night.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z Monday...VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this morning which is anticipated to continue throughout the 06z cycle with high pressure remaining in place. Infrared satellite shows patchy high clouds sprawled throughout the region which should increase and lower a bit throughout the morning and into this afternoon ahead of an upper-level disturbance.

Winds throughout the 06z period will be light and variable to start, increasing to speeds of 5-10kt by this afternoon out of the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
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Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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