Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flowing Wells, AZ
July 3, 2024 2:25 AM MST (09:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM Moonset 6:00 PM |
FXUS65 KTWC 022146 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 246 PM MST Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Chances of showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday, then gradually diminishing during the rest of the week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. With high pressure building in from the northwest, daytime temperatures will be trending hotter Friday into at least early next week.
DISCUSSION
Relatively deep moisture remains in place today with precipitable water values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches and surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Storms are well supported in valley locations this afternoon as expected, with brief pulse severe and heavy rain leading to localized flooding issues. Coverage will diminish after sunset, however we'll need to keep an eye on potential strong outflow from organized convection in northern Sonora. Wednesday should be another day for scattered thunderstorms across much of the area.
By Thursday, strong high pressure will build into the desert southwest from the west coast, resulting in an unfavorable pattern for moisture along with hotter temperatures. Moisture trends will definitely be down as a drier northwesterly flow begins to push the deepest moisture southward, but the question is how fast and how much? This will factor into both the thunderstorm forecast and the heat forecast. We're likely to hold on to enough moisture to keep a daily chance of convection near the international border, but areas as far north as Tucson will get iffy at times late in the week into early next week. Sonora should stay pretty active, which means we'll likely see some outflow moisture counter the drying trend in portions of SE AZ.
That makes potential excessive heat headlines a little more problematic. It's likely that we won't need them across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties as they maintain the most moisture and best convection chances. The ebb and flow of our area on the edge of deepest moisture makes it a tougher call. Even forecasting a few degrees above the NBM makes some of the days Saturday into Monday marginal as far north as Tucson and Safford. The pattern is going to be much less favorable for storms, but the flow may not be strong enough to scour us out.
AVIATION
Valid through 04/00Z.
SCT- BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL. ISOLD- SCT TSRA/SHRA between until 03/05Z. MVFR conditions near TSRA, with mountain obscurations, VSBY restrictions and gusts to 40+ knots. Otherwise, outside of TSRA outflows SFC wind generally 10 kts or less, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
There will be the daily chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east and south through the end of the week, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the International Border this weekend into early next week. High pressure aloft will build to our northwest late this week into early next week, which will result in drier and hot conditions. The deeper moisture will get pushed south and east of the region late this week into early next week, with Min RH values lowering into the 10-18% range across the lower elevations and 15-30% in the higher elevations. High temperature will warm considerably late this week through the weekend, with highs 106-113 degrees from Tucson westward and in the Gila River Valley, and in the upper 90s to 105 degrees across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties.
Excessive Heat will likely be an issue during this time frame.
Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20-25 mph.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 246 PM MST Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Chances of showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday, then gradually diminishing during the rest of the week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. With high pressure building in from the northwest, daytime temperatures will be trending hotter Friday into at least early next week.
DISCUSSION
Relatively deep moisture remains in place today with precipitable water values ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches and surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Storms are well supported in valley locations this afternoon as expected, with brief pulse severe and heavy rain leading to localized flooding issues. Coverage will diminish after sunset, however we'll need to keep an eye on potential strong outflow from organized convection in northern Sonora. Wednesday should be another day for scattered thunderstorms across much of the area.
By Thursday, strong high pressure will build into the desert southwest from the west coast, resulting in an unfavorable pattern for moisture along with hotter temperatures. Moisture trends will definitely be down as a drier northwesterly flow begins to push the deepest moisture southward, but the question is how fast and how much? This will factor into both the thunderstorm forecast and the heat forecast. We're likely to hold on to enough moisture to keep a daily chance of convection near the international border, but areas as far north as Tucson will get iffy at times late in the week into early next week. Sonora should stay pretty active, which means we'll likely see some outflow moisture counter the drying trend in portions of SE AZ.
That makes potential excessive heat headlines a little more problematic. It's likely that we won't need them across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties as they maintain the most moisture and best convection chances. The ebb and flow of our area on the edge of deepest moisture makes it a tougher call. Even forecasting a few degrees above the NBM makes some of the days Saturday into Monday marginal as far north as Tucson and Safford. The pattern is going to be much less favorable for storms, but the flow may not be strong enough to scour us out.
AVIATION
Valid through 04/00Z.
SCT- BKN clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL. ISOLD- SCT TSRA/SHRA between until 03/05Z. MVFR conditions near TSRA, with mountain obscurations, VSBY restrictions and gusts to 40+ knots. Otherwise, outside of TSRA outflows SFC wind generally 10 kts or less, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
There will be the daily chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson east and south through the end of the week, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the International Border this weekend into early next week. High pressure aloft will build to our northwest late this week into early next week, which will result in drier and hot conditions. The deeper moisture will get pushed south and east of the region late this week into early next week, with Min RH values lowering into the 10-18% range across the lower elevations and 15-30% in the higher elevations. High temperature will warm considerably late this week through the weekend, with highs 106-113 degrees from Tucson westward and in the Gila River Valley, and in the upper 90s to 105 degrees across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties.
Excessive Heat will likely be an issue during this time frame.
Outside of any thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less each afternoon with the occasional gust of 20-25 mph.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KDMA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDMA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDMA
Wind History graph: DMA
(wind in knots)
Tucson, AZ,
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