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FXUS65 KTWC 072056 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 156 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler temperatures with continued dry conditions Friday through the weekend with temperatures down to near normal levels.
Brief warming then returns early next week with continued dry conditions.

DISCUSSION
Another warm December afternoon across the forecast area with temperatures in the 70s for most lower elevation locales.
The flow pattern is currently zonal but there will be a shortwave passing through the Four Corners region on Friday. While any moisture with this system will remain well to our north, a few increased breezes are expected for eastern areas along with a 5 to 8 degree drop in temperatures compared to today. As north to northwesterly flow aloft prevails this weekend, cooler temperatures will settle in with highs back down to seasonable levels Saturday.
Breezy north to northeast surface winds Saturday will transition to a more typical east to southeast wind regime on Sunday with breezes in the usual spots susceptible to increase east to southeast winds.
Low temperatures this weekend are expected to stay above freezing in the lower elevations and desert locations, though a few of the usual coldest spots near washes will approach the freezing mark.

Daytime temperatures will start to moderate Sunday and into early next work week as flat ridging dominates. The next weather system will move into the region Wednesday into the end of next week but the latest ensembles are generally keeping the main impacts of the trough and upper low to our north with the best chances of precipitation (20 to 40 percent) across the White Mountains.

AVIATION
Valid through 09/00Z.
SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC winds WLY/NWLY around 10 kts thru 08/03Z, then variable at 12 kts or less into Friday morning. SWLY thru NWLY winds resume aft 08/18Z around 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be 8 to 13 degrees above normal this afternoon, lowering back to near normal Saturday and Sunday, before warming back up to 3-6 degrees above normal early next week. Min RH values will be in the 10-18 percent range in the valleys and 20-35 percent in the mountains today, rising about 4-8 percent on Friday. Drier air then overspreads the area Saturday into Sunday, continuing into next week, with min RH values of 7-15 percent in the valleys and 15-25 percent in the mountains. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph today, becoming breezy on Friday from the west to northwest at 10-20 mph mainly east of Tucson. Winds then shift to the northeast at 10-20 mph Saturday, with breezy east- southeast winds Saturday night and Sunday at 15-25 mph and higher gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter wind speeds are then expected much of next week. Dry conditions will persist over the next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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