Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flowing Wells, AZ

DISCUSSION

A tight upper low dropping into Arizona will produce a swath of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly through Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. A modest but unseasonably moist air mass characterized by precipitable water to around 0.8 inches was overspread across southeastern Arizona this afternoon, responsible for MUCAPE values of to near 1000 J/kg. This atmospheric setup will be adequate for isolated moderate rainfall rates with a low but non-zero threat of flash flooding, if perhaps a slower moving storm sits over a location or multiple cells pass over the same area. Tucson and eastern Pinal look to remain on the western periphery of this potential, with 10-20 percent chances through this evening. A couple stronger storms with strong wind gusts and small hail will be possible, mainly in Cochise and southern Graham/Greenlee.
Thunderstorm activity will generally diminish in the evening, but the nearby upper low will keep shower chances going in eastern areas through early Saturday morning. A few additional Saturday afternoon showers will be possible in southern Cochise and Santa Cruz as cold temperatures aloft from the crossing upper low will produce weak instability until daytime heating is lost.

Breezy easterly winds are expected Saturday and Sunday as a surface pressure gradient tightens under the exiting upper low.
Winds of 12-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are generally forecast, with winds a bit stronger in areas open to easterly flow.

Mean flow aloft will generally favor a ridging pattern this week, though a few weak passing dry lows will keep temperatures near or below normal through the forecast period. By the end of the week ensemble models continue to produce lower height anomalies, indicative of a pattern that may allow precipitation chances to return to the forecast. Strong uncertainty in any details remain however.

AVIATION
Valid through 08/00Z.

Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of KTUS-KOLS through the New Mexico border this afternoon and evening with lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm after 07/03Z into early Saturday morning. Ceilings SCT-BKN 5k-8k east of KTUS and FEW to SKC to the west. Gusty, erratic winds possible with any thunderstorm, otherwise surface winds mainly light and terrain driven through the afternoon and early evening, then turning east southeast after 07/06Z. Exception being KSAD where east-southeast winds of 10-15 kts expected into the evening. Then after 06/09Z winds across southeastern Arizona increase to 10-15 kts and turn easterly, with gusts of 20-25 kts after 07/16Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly from eastern Pinal/Pima east, with greatest chances through Cochise and southern Graham/Greenlee counties. Thunderstorm activity should diminish in the evening, but at least isolated shower chances will continue overnight through early Saturday morning. The chance of wetting rain or even heavy rain looks strongest in Cochise county (20-80 percent chances of 0.1"). Easterly winds are expected Saturday through Sunday with areas open to easterly flow seeing sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.
Minimum RH values in the valleys will be in the 35-50 percent range into next week (and higher in the mountains), with a few lower elevation ares dipping below 30 percent early next week as temperatures warm a few degrees.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.