Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Morris, NY
July 3, 2024 5:37 AM EDT (09:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:56 PM Moonrise 2:03 AM Moonset 6:21 PM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 415 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers and Thunderstorms likely Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 030809 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 409 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
After two spectacular days of weather...it will become uncomfortably sultry today with most sites across the lake plains reaching close to 90
Meanwhile
our stretch of rain free weather will come to an end later this afternoon and evening when a weak cold front will generate some showers and drenching thunderstorms. While most areas will then be rainfree for the Fourth of July...there will only be minimal relief from the heat and humidity.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unlike the past couple of days that featured comfortable conditions...
we can now expect mid summer heat and humidity to return to the region.
A warm front moving through early this morning will introduce a sultry airmass for the afternoon that will include Tds that will climb to between 65 and 70...while PWAT values will surge to around 2 inches.
While this will initially be accompanied by plenty of sunshine...our unstable airmass will become favorable for some showers and thunderstorms.
As is most often the case during the summer...an approaching cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal sfc trough this afternoon. The latter could help to initiate some thunderstorms over the Southern Tier during the afternoon...then more widespread convection can be expected late in the day into the evening from the passing cold front. The sub tropical plume of moisture ahead of these boundaries could support some torrential downpours with some of the convection...but despite forecast bulk shear values in the vcnty of 40 kts...the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms has diminished due to weaker anticipated lapse rates and corresponding instability.
Temperatures today will climb to near 90 for the lake plains of western counties...while the remainder of the region should experience highs in the mid 80s. These values will be roughly 10 degrees higher than those from Tuesday and more than 15 degrees higher than those from Monday.
The showers and thunderstorms early tonight will diminish in coverage after midnight....as the aforementioned cold front will slowly press through and settle across Pennsylvania towards daybreak. Despite the passage of the weak cold front though...it will remain warm and muggy with the mercury only falling to around 70 for the vast majority of the region.
For the Fourth of July...the frontal boundary and axis of sub tropical moisture will become stalled across Pennsylvania. This should keep the focus for showers and thunderstorms to our south...but with no real airmass change in the wake of the front...our fair weather will continue to include warm and uncomfortably humid conditions.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Thursday Night and Friday surface high pressure will pass by our region to the north, with a frontal boundary stalled to our south.
Deeper moisture will be towards southern PA. Could see a shower or thunderstorm near the State Line Thursday night heading into Friday morning as a moist airmass lingers over our region, and a return flow warm front lingers near our region. Also this remaining moist airmass and light winds may produce some patches of fog, especially across SW NYS. The light winds Thursday night will not clear firework smoke quickly.
Chances increase midday Friday for showers and thunderstorms as the warm front to our south begins to lift towards our region.
Greatest coverage to convection will be Friday night and Saturday, with the passing of the warm front, low level convergence on the nose of a 35 to 40 knot LLJ that will reside under divergent flow aloft, and broad scale lift ahead of the shortwave. Bulk shear in the 0-6km layer will increase to 40 to 45 knots, giving strength for some discrete cells. Any training cluster of cells Friday night could bring heavy rainfall with PWATs again rising towards 2.00 inches.
Overnight timing is not great for severe weather, but the kinematics of winds aloft maintaining organized storm structure, a stronger storm or two Friday night and early Saturday morning cannot be ruled out. For Saturday afternoon, strongest storms will likely be across eastern areas where lingering MUCAPE values of 1000 J/KG and 0-6 km bulk shear values near 50 kts ahead of a cold front could boost thunderstorms. Storms will exit east of our region Saturday evening.
Slightly cooler air Saturday night behind the front will lower overnight lows down into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An area of high pressure will cross our region Sunday and Sunday night, bringing widespread fair weather. This area of high pressure from the mountain west, and not Canada, will not scour out the humidity, with dewpoints still remaining near 60F within the area of high pressure.
A few lake breeze showers and thunderstorms will be featured for Monday with building instability through the day as surface temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 80s. Another shortwave trough from the Plains will near the region for Tuesday with lift ahead of this feature likely to bring better coverage area to showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place across our region today...but as we work through the afternoon and first half of tonight...a pair of boundaries will likely trigger some showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for this activity will come after 21z.
Cigs in the wake of a weak cold front this evening will encourage to drop to MVFR for many areas late tonight...mainly south and east of a line from Buffalo to Rochester.
Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier.
Friday and Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR
MARINE
A cold front will approach the region today. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the cold front. While fair weather will remain in place through at least early afternoon...there will be an increasing risk for thunderstorms through the evening hours.
In the wake of the cold front...fair weather will return to the region later tonight with subsiding southwest breezes.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July...gentle to moderate winds will be in place throughout the region. These winds will be from the southwest on Lake Erie and primarily from the west on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 409 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
After two spectacular days of weather...it will become uncomfortably sultry today with most sites across the lake plains reaching close to 90
Meanwhile
our stretch of rain free weather will come to an end later this afternoon and evening when a weak cold front will generate some showers and drenching thunderstorms. While most areas will then be rainfree for the Fourth of July...there will only be minimal relief from the heat and humidity.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unlike the past couple of days that featured comfortable conditions...
we can now expect mid summer heat and humidity to return to the region.
A warm front moving through early this morning will introduce a sultry airmass for the afternoon that will include Tds that will climb to between 65 and 70...while PWAT values will surge to around 2 inches.
While this will initially be accompanied by plenty of sunshine...our unstable airmass will become favorable for some showers and thunderstorms.
As is most often the case during the summer...an approaching cold front will be preceded by a pre-frontal sfc trough this afternoon. The latter could help to initiate some thunderstorms over the Southern Tier during the afternoon...then more widespread convection can be expected late in the day into the evening from the passing cold front. The sub tropical plume of moisture ahead of these boundaries could support some torrential downpours with some of the convection...but despite forecast bulk shear values in the vcnty of 40 kts...the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms has diminished due to weaker anticipated lapse rates and corresponding instability.
Temperatures today will climb to near 90 for the lake plains of western counties...while the remainder of the region should experience highs in the mid 80s. These values will be roughly 10 degrees higher than those from Tuesday and more than 15 degrees higher than those from Monday.
The showers and thunderstorms early tonight will diminish in coverage after midnight....as the aforementioned cold front will slowly press through and settle across Pennsylvania towards daybreak. Despite the passage of the weak cold front though...it will remain warm and muggy with the mercury only falling to around 70 for the vast majority of the region.
For the Fourth of July...the frontal boundary and axis of sub tropical moisture will become stalled across Pennsylvania. This should keep the focus for showers and thunderstorms to our south...but with no real airmass change in the wake of the front...our fair weather will continue to include warm and uncomfortably humid conditions.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Thursday Night and Friday surface high pressure will pass by our region to the north, with a frontal boundary stalled to our south.
Deeper moisture will be towards southern PA. Could see a shower or thunderstorm near the State Line Thursday night heading into Friday morning as a moist airmass lingers over our region, and a return flow warm front lingers near our region. Also this remaining moist airmass and light winds may produce some patches of fog, especially across SW NYS. The light winds Thursday night will not clear firework smoke quickly.
Chances increase midday Friday for showers and thunderstorms as the warm front to our south begins to lift towards our region.
Greatest coverage to convection will be Friday night and Saturday, with the passing of the warm front, low level convergence on the nose of a 35 to 40 knot LLJ that will reside under divergent flow aloft, and broad scale lift ahead of the shortwave. Bulk shear in the 0-6km layer will increase to 40 to 45 knots, giving strength for some discrete cells. Any training cluster of cells Friday night could bring heavy rainfall with PWATs again rising towards 2.00 inches.
Overnight timing is not great for severe weather, but the kinematics of winds aloft maintaining organized storm structure, a stronger storm or two Friday night and early Saturday morning cannot be ruled out. For Saturday afternoon, strongest storms will likely be across eastern areas where lingering MUCAPE values of 1000 J/KG and 0-6 km bulk shear values near 50 kts ahead of a cold front could boost thunderstorms. Storms will exit east of our region Saturday evening.
Slightly cooler air Saturday night behind the front will lower overnight lows down into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An area of high pressure will cross our region Sunday and Sunday night, bringing widespread fair weather. This area of high pressure from the mountain west, and not Canada, will not scour out the humidity, with dewpoints still remaining near 60F within the area of high pressure.
A few lake breeze showers and thunderstorms will be featured for Monday with building instability through the day as surface temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 80s. Another shortwave trough from the Plains will near the region for Tuesday with lift ahead of this feature likely to bring better coverage area to showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place across our region today...but as we work through the afternoon and first half of tonight...a pair of boundaries will likely trigger some showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for this activity will come after 21z.
Cigs in the wake of a weak cold front this evening will encourage to drop to MVFR for many areas late tonight...mainly south and east of a line from Buffalo to Rochester.
Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the western Southern Tier.
Friday and Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...VFR
MARINE
A cold front will approach the region today. Winds will veer to the southwest ahead of the cold front. While fair weather will remain in place through at least early afternoon...there will be an increasing risk for thunderstorms through the evening hours.
In the wake of the cold front...fair weather will return to the region later tonight with subsiding southwest breezes.
Looking ahead to the Fourth of July...gentle to moderate winds will be in place throughout the region. These winds will be from the southwest on Lake Erie and primarily from the west on Lake Ontario.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDSV
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KDSV
Wind History graph: DSV
(wind in knots)
Buffalo, NY,
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