Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX
June 2, 2024 6:51 PM MDT (00:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM Moonset 3:18 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 022316 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 516 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds will be the theme through the first half of the work week across the Borderland Region. Very hot temperatures will overspread the desert lowlands Wednesday through Friday, with hottest temperatures expected on Thursday.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms get introduced to the forecast on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures staying hot.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures will be the theme across the Borderland Region through the week. Weak flow aloft will allow for light afternoon breezes and warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures across the desert lowlands will top out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon. El Paso and vicinity will flirt with 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday as well.
By Wednesday, strong high pressure aloft will move north out of Mexico and will continue to build in across the Desert Southwest. In response, temperatures will continue to increase during the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. NBM probabilities continue to paint 104-107 degrees temperatures across the El Paso metro during that timeframe. As of now, confidence is increasing that Heat Advisory headlines will be needed. The hottest temperatures will be felt on Thursday, with forecasted high temperatures of 107 degrees for El Paso. Heat Risk values will range from Moderate to Major across much of the area, with Major Heat Risk impacts for almost all of El Paso County.
For Friday and Saturday, model and ensemble guidance continues to differentiate from each other. The upper level ridge of high pressure aforementioned above will generally stay in place across the Intermountain West. This will ultimately weaken the dry southwest flow we've be accustomed to in the low levels, allowing east/southeasterly flow to increase. With east/southeasterly flow, moisture will increase as well. This subtle but sufficient moisture tap, in combination with an approaching upper level system off the Baja Coast, will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm chances. As of now, with confidence remaining low, those rain chances are not too good, generally in the 10-30 percent range. But hey, at least it's something. With the low confidence in probability in shower/thunderstorm chances, comes a larger range in high temperatures. On Friday, NBM 10th percentile shows a high of 98 with the 90th percentile at 107, with Saturday through early next week showing similar solutions. This just goes to show the lower confidence in El Paso seeing any convection.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VMC through forecast period under dry west flow aloft. High clouds over northern Mexico moving into west Texas overnight, with skies FEW-SCT250. Skies mainly SKC across New Mexico. Surface winds currently gusting to 20-25 knots out of the WSW, subsiding to 10-15 knots overnight. Another breezy afternoon expected Monday, with peak gusts to 30 knots midday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
ELEVATED fire weather conditions will remain across most of the forecast area through Thursday. SW afternoon winds of 10-20 mph, warming temperatures, and Min RH values in the single digits to low teens can be expected. By the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, southern NM and west TX will experience the hottest temperatures so far this year. As of now, no Fire Weather products will likely be needed in the coming days with conditions remaining ELEVATED. Sufficient afternoon mixing will allow for Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation rates.
By Friday and Saturday, an increase in moisture from the east coupled with an approaching Baja California storm system, will promote isolated lowland and isolated/scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms. As of now, confidence remains low with regard to that. Just something to keep an eye on as it could possibly pose the threat of dry lightning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 71 99 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 93 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 60 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 95 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 97 60 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 99 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 97 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 94 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 50 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 52 87 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 92 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 94 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 52 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 53 93 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 93 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 92 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 516 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Hot and dry, with breezy afternoon winds will be the theme through the first half of the work week across the Borderland Region. Very hot temperatures will overspread the desert lowlands Wednesday through Friday, with hottest temperatures expected on Thursday.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms get introduced to the forecast on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures staying hot.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures will be the theme across the Borderland Region through the week. Weak flow aloft will allow for light afternoon breezes and warming temperatures Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures across the desert lowlands will top out in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon. El Paso and vicinity will flirt with 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday as well.
By Wednesday, strong high pressure aloft will move north out of Mexico and will continue to build in across the Desert Southwest. In response, temperatures will continue to increase during the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. NBM probabilities continue to paint 104-107 degrees temperatures across the El Paso metro during that timeframe. As of now, confidence is increasing that Heat Advisory headlines will be needed. The hottest temperatures will be felt on Thursday, with forecasted high temperatures of 107 degrees for El Paso. Heat Risk values will range from Moderate to Major across much of the area, with Major Heat Risk impacts for almost all of El Paso County.
For Friday and Saturday, model and ensemble guidance continues to differentiate from each other. The upper level ridge of high pressure aforementioned above will generally stay in place across the Intermountain West. This will ultimately weaken the dry southwest flow we've be accustomed to in the low levels, allowing east/southeasterly flow to increase. With east/southeasterly flow, moisture will increase as well. This subtle but sufficient moisture tap, in combination with an approaching upper level system off the Baja Coast, will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm chances. As of now, with confidence remaining low, those rain chances are not too good, generally in the 10-30 percent range. But hey, at least it's something. With the low confidence in probability in shower/thunderstorm chances, comes a larger range in high temperatures. On Friday, NBM 10th percentile shows a high of 98 with the 90th percentile at 107, with Saturday through early next week showing similar solutions. This just goes to show the lower confidence in El Paso seeing any convection.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VMC through forecast period under dry west flow aloft. High clouds over northern Mexico moving into west Texas overnight, with skies FEW-SCT250. Skies mainly SKC across New Mexico. Surface winds currently gusting to 20-25 knots out of the WSW, subsiding to 10-15 knots overnight. Another breezy afternoon expected Monday, with peak gusts to 30 knots midday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 132 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
ELEVATED fire weather conditions will remain across most of the forecast area through Thursday. SW afternoon winds of 10-20 mph, warming temperatures, and Min RH values in the single digits to low teens can be expected. By the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, southern NM and west TX will experience the hottest temperatures so far this year. As of now, no Fire Weather products will likely be needed in the coming days with conditions remaining ELEVATED. Sufficient afternoon mixing will allow for Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation rates.
By Friday and Saturday, an increase in moisture from the east coupled with an approaching Baja California storm system, will promote isolated lowland and isolated/scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms. As of now, confidence remains low with regard to that. Just something to keep an eye on as it could possibly pose the threat of dry lightning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 71 99 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 93 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 60 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 95 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 97 60 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 99 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 97 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 94 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 85 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 50 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 52 87 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 92 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 94 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 52 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 53 93 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 87 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 89 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 93 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 92 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 3 sm | 56 min | var 06 | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 95°F | 14°F | 5% | 29.87 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 4 sm | 60 min | WSW 15 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 97°F | 9°F | 4% | 29.83 | |
| KDNA DONA ANA COUNTY INTL JETPORT,NM | 14 sm | 16 min | W 13G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 93°F | -4°F | 2% | 29.86 |
El Paso, TX,
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