Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX
July 3, 2024 3:27 AM MDT (09:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM Moonset 5:40 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 030858 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Rain chances will begin to slowly decrease over the next few days as slightly drier air moves in from the northwest. By this weekend, temperatures will be warm, running a few degrees above the seasonal average with daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure aloft over the Deep South and Southern Mississippi River Valley, along with a strengthening upper level high off the coast of California will be the synoptic scale features driving the weather locally across the Desert SW through the weekend.
The deep Monsoonal moisture that's been giving active weather over the past several days will remain over the Borderland Region on Wednesday. Both GFS/ECMWF deterministic models and the respected ensemble suites continue to show deep moisture across the local area with PW values between 1.2-1.5" and surface dewpoint temps in the low 60s. However, high-res model guidance isn't too excited with the prospects of seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Cloud coverage from yesterday evening's activity will likely stick around through the morning and into the afternoon hours across most of the area. Ultimately keeping thermodynamic conditions stable with less sun and slightly cooler temperatures. RAP analysis forecast soundings show convective temperatures in the middle to upper 90s during the afternoon, as of now with the expected cloud cover, temperatures look to fall short of the Convective temps. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area, especially if we can see some sunshine. The area of focus will be over the Gila region and areas west of the Divide.
On Thursday, the strengthening high pressure aforementioned above will move onshore across western CONUS with it's eastern periphery nosing into the Four Corners vicinity.
North/northwesterly flow will increase as a result, pushing the deep Monsoonal moisture slowly towards the south and southeast.
This dry influence along with increasing 500mb heights will decrease rain chances across the northern portions of the CWA with the focus for isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms across West Texas and along the International Border. Isolated storms will be possible over the Gila and Sacs due to orographics.
Temperatures on Thursday will warm above 100 degrees.
For Friday and into the weekend, daily afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible. Temperatures each afternoon will hover right around the 100 degree mark with light winds.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight.
This activity is expected to continue and gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Showers will be mainly light in intensity with brief periods of moderate rainfall that might briefly reduce visibility to near MVFR categories at local TAF sites.
Ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft becoming lifting higher to above 15 kft by 14Z. Winds will mainly west northwest at 10 to 15kts becoming lighter after 12Z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more isolated Wednesday afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Fire weather concerns are LOW on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Min RH values will be greater than 25 percent areawide, 30- 50 percent over the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The possibility for new lightning starts are low due to higher soil moisture within the mountains and forested regions. Winds will be light under weak west/northwest flow.
Slightly drier conditions expected on Thursday through the weekend as drier air noses in from the northwest. Min RH values become critically low over the Gila Region and NMZ112 on Thursday. Daytime winds will remain light, predominately diurnal and terrain influenced. Vent rates will range from Fair to Good today and Thursday, becoming Good to Very Good this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 99 80 103 80 / 40 30 40 40 Sierra Blanca 94 72 95 70 / 40 60 70 60 Las Cruces 96 74 101 73 / 50 30 20 20 Alamogordo 94 70 98 68 / 50 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 72 55 76 52 / 50 30 30 20 Truth or Consequences 94 71 99 71 / 20 10 0 10 Silver City 88 65 93 65 / 40 30 20 20 Deming 94 70 100 70 / 30 40 10 20 Lordsburg 94 70 98 70 / 40 30 20 20 West El Paso Metro 96 78 98 78 / 40 30 30 40 Dell City 99 74 99 73 / 30 30 40 30 Fort Hancock 100 75 102 76 / 40 50 70 60 Loma Linda 90 71 93 70 / 40 40 50 40 Fabens 98 77 102 76 / 30 40 40 40 Santa Teresa 93 75 98 73 / 40 30 30 40 White Sands HQ 94 78 97 76 / 50 30 30 30 Jornada Range 94 72 99 69 / 30 30 20 20 Hatch 97 71 102 70 / 30 20 10 20 Columbus 93 75 98 73 / 30 40 20 30 Orogrande 94 73 96 72 / 50 30 30 20 Mayhill 83 61 87 58 / 50 30 30 20 Mescalero 83 60 87 57 / 50 20 20 20 Timberon 82 60 85 58 / 60 30 40 20 Winston 86 60 91 58 / 30 20 10 10 Hillsboro 91 69 96 69 / 50 30 20 20 Spaceport 94 67 99 66 / 30 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 88 61 93 59 / 40 30 20 10 Hurley 91 65 96 65 / 40 30 20 10 Cliff 97 64 103 65 / 40 30 20 10 Mule Creek 91 67 97 65 / 40 30 20 10 Faywood 89 67 94 67 / 50 40 20 20 Animas 93 70 97 68 / 40 40 40 30 Hachita 91 70 96 68 / 40 40 30 30 Antelope Wells 90 70 95 68 / 60 50 50 40 Cloverdale 87 66 90 66 / 60 50 50 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 258 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Rain chances will begin to slowly decrease over the next few days as slightly drier air moves in from the northwest. By this weekend, temperatures will be warm, running a few degrees above the seasonal average with daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
High pressure aloft over the Deep South and Southern Mississippi River Valley, along with a strengthening upper level high off the coast of California will be the synoptic scale features driving the weather locally across the Desert SW through the weekend.
The deep Monsoonal moisture that's been giving active weather over the past several days will remain over the Borderland Region on Wednesday. Both GFS/ECMWF deterministic models and the respected ensemble suites continue to show deep moisture across the local area with PW values between 1.2-1.5" and surface dewpoint temps in the low 60s. However, high-res model guidance isn't too excited with the prospects of seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Cloud coverage from yesterday evening's activity will likely stick around through the morning and into the afternoon hours across most of the area. Ultimately keeping thermodynamic conditions stable with less sun and slightly cooler temperatures. RAP analysis forecast soundings show convective temperatures in the middle to upper 90s during the afternoon, as of now with the expected cloud cover, temperatures look to fall short of the Convective temps. That said, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the area, especially if we can see some sunshine. The area of focus will be over the Gila region and areas west of the Divide.
On Thursday, the strengthening high pressure aforementioned above will move onshore across western CONUS with it's eastern periphery nosing into the Four Corners vicinity.
North/northwesterly flow will increase as a result, pushing the deep Monsoonal moisture slowly towards the south and southeast.
This dry influence along with increasing 500mb heights will decrease rain chances across the northern portions of the CWA with the focus for isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms across West Texas and along the International Border. Isolated storms will be possible over the Gila and Sacs due to orographics.
Temperatures on Thursday will warm above 100 degrees.
For Friday and into the weekend, daily afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible. Temperatures each afternoon will hover right around the 100 degree mark with light winds.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Lingering showers and thunderstorms remain over the area tonight.
This activity is expected to continue and gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Showers will be mainly light in intensity with brief periods of moderate rainfall that might briefly reduce visibility to near MVFR categories at local TAF sites.
Ceilings will remain at or above 10 kft becoming lifting higher to above 15 kft by 14Z. Winds will mainly west northwest at 10 to 15kts becoming lighter after 12Z. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be more isolated Wednesday afternoon.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Fire weather concerns are LOW on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening. Min RH values will be greater than 25 percent areawide, 30- 50 percent over the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The possibility for new lightning starts are low due to higher soil moisture within the mountains and forested regions. Winds will be light under weak west/northwest flow.
Slightly drier conditions expected on Thursday through the weekend as drier air noses in from the northwest. Min RH values become critically low over the Gila Region and NMZ112 on Thursday. Daytime winds will remain light, predominately diurnal and terrain influenced. Vent rates will range from Fair to Good today and Thursday, becoming Good to Very Good this weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 99 80 103 80 / 40 30 40 40 Sierra Blanca 94 72 95 70 / 40 60 70 60 Las Cruces 96 74 101 73 / 50 30 20 20 Alamogordo 94 70 98 68 / 50 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 72 55 76 52 / 50 30 30 20 Truth or Consequences 94 71 99 71 / 20 10 0 10 Silver City 88 65 93 65 / 40 30 20 20 Deming 94 70 100 70 / 30 40 10 20 Lordsburg 94 70 98 70 / 40 30 20 20 West El Paso Metro 96 78 98 78 / 40 30 30 40 Dell City 99 74 99 73 / 30 30 40 30 Fort Hancock 100 75 102 76 / 40 50 70 60 Loma Linda 90 71 93 70 / 40 40 50 40 Fabens 98 77 102 76 / 30 40 40 40 Santa Teresa 93 75 98 73 / 40 30 30 40 White Sands HQ 94 78 97 76 / 50 30 30 30 Jornada Range 94 72 99 69 / 30 30 20 20 Hatch 97 71 102 70 / 30 20 10 20 Columbus 93 75 98 73 / 30 40 20 30 Orogrande 94 73 96 72 / 50 30 30 20 Mayhill 83 61 87 58 / 50 30 30 20 Mescalero 83 60 87 57 / 50 20 20 20 Timberon 82 60 85 58 / 60 30 40 20 Winston 86 60 91 58 / 30 20 10 10 Hillsboro 91 69 96 69 / 50 30 20 20 Spaceport 94 67 99 66 / 30 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 88 61 93 59 / 40 30 20 10 Hurley 91 65 96 65 / 40 30 20 10 Cliff 97 64 103 65 / 40 30 20 10 Mule Creek 91 67 97 65 / 40 30 20 10 Faywood 89 67 94 67 / 50 40 20 20 Animas 93 70 97 68 / 40 40 40 30 Hachita 91 70 96 68 / 40 40 30 30 Antelope Wells 90 70 95 68 / 60 50 50 40 Cloverdale 87 66 90 66 / 60 50 50 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KELP
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KELP
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KELP
Wind History graph: ELP
(wind in knots)
El Paso, TX,
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