Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for La Union, NM
June 1, 2024 1:06 PM MDT (19:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 1:38 AM Moonset 2:11 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 011713 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1113 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 922 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Updated grids to push thunderstorm chances further west into the San Andres, down into the Organs and eastward. Moisture has moved into KLRU and up against the N-S ranges of Sierra and Dona Ana counties. Expect at least some isolated storms to start developing between 18Z-20Z over these areas and the Sacs then some storms could move onto the lowlands to the east as dryline pushes back that way. May see a couple storms go severe which would likely be east of a Ruidoso to Orogrande line.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Strong to near severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon for Hudspeth and Otero counties with the biggest threats being gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry lightning. Dry, very warm, and afternoon breezes will be seen Sunday through Tuesday. HOT temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday where El Paso could be nearing heat advisory criteria both days. Our next shot for precipitation could be Thursday or Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Last nights convection over the TX Panhandle has pushed out an outflow boundary which will continue to progress westward. This will allow for good surface moisture to enter into the area and may even make it as far west as the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) this morning. Strong thunderstorms possible in eastern portions of the CWA with the focus being strong outflow winds and hail. Good CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg or so possible just east of the RGV, LR are at least 8.5 C/km, and bulk shear is around 30-40 kts. With that being said, strong thunderstorms possible with the potential for near severe storms. DCAPEs are well over 1000 J/kg, adding the potential for strong outflow winds. With these ingredients forecasted to be in place, the dryline, shortwave, and orographic lift will be enough to trigger storms this afternoon. Storm chances expected to pop up around noon today and should be out of the CWA by 6PM. Storms have the potential to be strong, but will storms be in our CWA long enough to reach severe criteria?
The dryline makes another westward retreat Saturday evening/Sunday morning but moisture completely gets sloshed out of the area by mid-day, effectively killing our precipitation chances. Sunday we can expect a typical spring time afternoon with breezy afternoon winds and warm temperatures. This dry, breezy, and warm regime continues into Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper low is expected to take shape Tuesday into Wednesday just west of Baja California. Another low is expected to trek across the northern CONUS allowing high pressure to build in to the area by Wednesday. Hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. 850mb temps on Wednesday could be around 34 degrees or so for the El Paso Airport which puts high temperatures potentially around 104F degrees that afternoon. In addition, winds are expected to be calmer than normal which will add to the heat as winds won't be present to help cool the body down. Overnight lows are nearing the 75F degree mark that night which puts the area very close to heat advisory criteria. Thursday looks a tad hotter than Wednesday bringing better confidence that we may reach heat advisory criteria Thursday as 850mb temps around 36C, making high temperatures at least in the 105F range. NBM probabilities for Thursday afternoon of reaching 105F or greater is currently 47% for the El Paso Airport. Overnight lows that following night is around 76F. It will be a bit breezier Thursday afternoon but still fairly calm, making for a couple dangerously hot afternoons.
Last night it appeared that Thursday and Friday the Borderland could have a decent shot at areawide precipitation chances but newest model data is suggesting drier weather on Thursday with a bit better potential for Friday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
P6SM SKC for areas mainly along and west of the Rio Grande. To the east, SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-250 as thunderstorm initiation is expected shortly after 18Z over the San Andres and Sacramento Mountains then isolated to scattered coverage as storms head east.
Winds will be west to southwest 5-15KTS for areas along and west of the Continental Divide but will be shifting around from southwest to east as the dryline moves east to around the Culberson Co line by 00Z then shifts back toward the Rio Grande by 06Z. By the end of the period, all areas should be back to the west-southwest.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Elevated fire conditions will continue through early next week as min RH values remain at or below critical thresholds with much of the lowlands still seeing single digit RHs each afternoon. Expect southwest to westerly breezes each afternoon that calms after sunset, but 20 ft winds will not be close to critical thresholds helping to limit the fire threat. Thunderstorms, with some potentially being strong, are expected for Hudspeth and Otero counties this afternoon. Storms will pop up around mid-day and should exit the area by 6PM. The main hazards with these storms will be gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry lightning. Moisture will push westward Saturday evening/Sunday morning and should make it to the Rio Grande Valley, but moisture quickly pushes east and out of the area by mid-day, effectively killing any precipitation chances that afternoon. Dry, breezy, and warm conditions continue into Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will feature hot temperatures, very light afternoon breezes and dry conditions.
Better surface moisture will start seeping in Thursday allowing for a slight chance of showers that afternoon, but models have been trending drier. Our next shot for areawide showers could be Friday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 100 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 61 93 63 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 98 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 60 95 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 73 48 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 96 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 88 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 97 56 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 94 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 96 58 98 57 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 101 60 100 62 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 91 61 89 62 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 100 62 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 66 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 96 57 95 56 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 98 56 97 56 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 96 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 95 60 94 60 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 84 52 85 55 / 30 10 0 0 Mescalero 84 51 83 51 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 82 48 82 51 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 88 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 93 59 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 54 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 91 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 95 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 56 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 91 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 95 56 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 95 58 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 94 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 88 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1113 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 922 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Updated grids to push thunderstorm chances further west into the San Andres, down into the Organs and eastward. Moisture has moved into KLRU and up against the N-S ranges of Sierra and Dona Ana counties. Expect at least some isolated storms to start developing between 18Z-20Z over these areas and the Sacs then some storms could move onto the lowlands to the east as dryline pushes back that way. May see a couple storms go severe which would likely be east of a Ruidoso to Orogrande line.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Strong to near severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon for Hudspeth and Otero counties with the biggest threats being gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry lightning. Dry, very warm, and afternoon breezes will be seen Sunday through Tuesday. HOT temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday where El Paso could be nearing heat advisory criteria both days. Our next shot for precipitation could be Thursday or Friday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Last nights convection over the TX Panhandle has pushed out an outflow boundary which will continue to progress westward. This will allow for good surface moisture to enter into the area and may even make it as far west as the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) this morning. Strong thunderstorms possible in eastern portions of the CWA with the focus being strong outflow winds and hail. Good CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg or so possible just east of the RGV, LR are at least 8.5 C/km, and bulk shear is around 30-40 kts. With that being said, strong thunderstorms possible with the potential for near severe storms. DCAPEs are well over 1000 J/kg, adding the potential for strong outflow winds. With these ingredients forecasted to be in place, the dryline, shortwave, and orographic lift will be enough to trigger storms this afternoon. Storm chances expected to pop up around noon today and should be out of the CWA by 6PM. Storms have the potential to be strong, but will storms be in our CWA long enough to reach severe criteria?
The dryline makes another westward retreat Saturday evening/Sunday morning but moisture completely gets sloshed out of the area by mid-day, effectively killing our precipitation chances. Sunday we can expect a typical spring time afternoon with breezy afternoon winds and warm temperatures. This dry, breezy, and warm regime continues into Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper low is expected to take shape Tuesday into Wednesday just west of Baja California. Another low is expected to trek across the northern CONUS allowing high pressure to build in to the area by Wednesday. Hot temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. 850mb temps on Wednesday could be around 34 degrees or so for the El Paso Airport which puts high temperatures potentially around 104F degrees that afternoon. In addition, winds are expected to be calmer than normal which will add to the heat as winds won't be present to help cool the body down. Overnight lows are nearing the 75F degree mark that night which puts the area very close to heat advisory criteria. Thursday looks a tad hotter than Wednesday bringing better confidence that we may reach heat advisory criteria Thursday as 850mb temps around 36C, making high temperatures at least in the 105F range. NBM probabilities for Thursday afternoon of reaching 105F or greater is currently 47% for the El Paso Airport. Overnight lows that following night is around 76F. It will be a bit breezier Thursday afternoon but still fairly calm, making for a couple dangerously hot afternoons.
Last night it appeared that Thursday and Friday the Borderland could have a decent shot at areawide precipitation chances but newest model data is suggesting drier weather on Thursday with a bit better potential for Friday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
P6SM SKC for areas mainly along and west of the Rio Grande. To the east, SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-250 as thunderstorm initiation is expected shortly after 18Z over the San Andres and Sacramento Mountains then isolated to scattered coverage as storms head east.
Winds will be west to southwest 5-15KTS for areas along and west of the Continental Divide but will be shifting around from southwest to east as the dryline moves east to around the Culberson Co line by 00Z then shifts back toward the Rio Grande by 06Z. By the end of the period, all areas should be back to the west-southwest.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 205 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024
Elevated fire conditions will continue through early next week as min RH values remain at or below critical thresholds with much of the lowlands still seeing single digit RHs each afternoon. Expect southwest to westerly breezes each afternoon that calms after sunset, but 20 ft winds will not be close to critical thresholds helping to limit the fire threat. Thunderstorms, with some potentially being strong, are expected for Hudspeth and Otero counties this afternoon. Storms will pop up around mid-day and should exit the area by 6PM. The main hazards with these storms will be gusty outflow winds, hail, and dry lightning. Moisture will push westward Saturday evening/Sunday morning and should make it to the Rio Grande Valley, but moisture quickly pushes east and out of the area by mid-day, effectively killing any precipitation chances that afternoon. Dry, breezy, and warm conditions continue into Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will feature hot temperatures, very light afternoon breezes and dry conditions.
Better surface moisture will start seeping in Thursday allowing for a slight chance of showers that afternoon, but models have been trending drier. Our next shot for areawide showers could be Friday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 100 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 93 61 93 63 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 98 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 96 60 95 59 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 73 48 72 49 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 96 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 88 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 97 56 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 94 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 97 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 96 58 98 57 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 101 60 100 62 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 91 61 89 62 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 100 62 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 97 66 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 96 57 95 56 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 98 56 97 56 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 96 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 95 60 94 60 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 84 52 85 55 / 30 10 0 0 Mescalero 84 51 83 51 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 82 48 82 51 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 88 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 93 59 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 95 54 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 89 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 91 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 95 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 90 56 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 91 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 95 56 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 95 58 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 94 58 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 88 58 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDNA DONA ANA COUNTY INTL JETPORT,NM | 5 sm | 11 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 91°F | 39°F | 16% | 29.99 | |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 16 sm | 11 min | var 06 | 7 sm | A Few Clouds | 91°F | 43°F | 19% | 30.00 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 18 sm | 15 min | S 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 93°F | 50°F | 23% | 29.96 |
El Paso, TX,
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