Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for La Union, NM

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Rather a complicated looking day for Wednesday as a trough moving across the Central Rockies looks to induce rather strong lee cyclogenesis over eastern NM, with the GFS still showing a 988 mb low over northeastern NM by mid-afternoon. drier NW flow around this feature will encounter westerly flow over SW New Mexico, with a low level convergence zone in between, stretching across the Gila Region into southern Dona Ana County. Dewpoints will drop into the 20s over the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA, where the NW flow will be in place, while the westerlies will keep modest low level moisture in place, advected in from the Gulf of California and moderated over Arizona. NW flow will cause downsloping along the Rio Grande valley, helping to boost temperatures into the lower-100s again.

A fairly tight pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions by mid-morning across much of the area. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the convergence zone and in the NM Bootheel, with outflow spreading into the lower elevations in between during the late afternoon and evening hours. The setup looks favorable for some dust issues on I-10, especially west of Lordsburg.

Broader outflow-enhanced westerlies look to push east towards the Rio Grande in the evening as well, possibly bringing in some dust, depending on where and how strong the convection is.

The convergence zone looks to stay in place on Thursday, but with a narrowing dry wedge over the Gila and Sierra Lakes Region. A weak backdoor front will be pushing into the Sacramento Mountains, with higher dewpoints encroaching from the east. Convection looks to fire up along the convergence zone again, and perhaps closer to southern Dona Ana County and ELP, and the Sacramento Mountains will be a secondary focal point for storms as well. Temperatures look to only cool by a couple degrees.

Drier air will shift the focus for afternoon storms to areas east of the Rio Grande for Friday. They may linger in the Sacramentos for Saturday, but drier and warmer conditions look to overspread the area for Sunday, as the subtropical ridge stretches out along the US/Mexico border.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Generally VFR through the period with SCT120 SCT-BKN250.
Developing after 18Z over the mountains...scattered BKN-OVC060CB 4-6SM -TSRA. Storms spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. Surface winds west/northwest 10-15G25 knots. Gusts to 30-35 knots along east slopes of terrain until 15Z. Outflow wind gusts from storms this afternoon of 40-50 knots is possible, along with patchy blowing dust. An AWW for KELP may eventually be issued for tonight.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 513 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Isolated thunderstorms likely over the mountains by around noon and spreading to the rest of the fire zones later afternoon and evening. Breezy winds today and tonight of west/northwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will bring near critical fire conditions to zones 110/111 this afternoon. With low humidity in place, Red Flag conditions could briefly be met out west, but by afternoon storm outflow, although adding to the wind gustiness, will also raise humidity levels above Red Flag criteria. Gusty winds over eastern zones tonight but good nocturnal RH recovery should alleviate any fire concerns. Some thunderstorms likely again Thursday, and in a more limited role over the eastern zones Friday. Temperatures will be hot today-well above normal, then drop a few degrees the rest of the week.

Min RH: Lowlands...10-17% through Saturday, then 6-12% Sunday/Monday
Gila/Black Range
10-20 through Friday, then 7-15% Saturday through Monday
Sacramento/Capitan Mtns
12-20% today and Thursday, increasing to 20-35% Friday/Saturday, then back to 10-17% Sunday/Monday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Monday.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 80 102 77 101 / 20 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 70 98 67 95 / 0 0 20 10 Las Cruces 72 100 68 99 / 20 40 10 0 Alamogordo 70 101 69 97 / 0 20 0 20 Cloudcroft 55 80 52 77 / 0 60 20 70 Truth or Consequences 74 100 70 98 / 10 20 0 0 Silver City 64 92 62 91 / 40 50 10 0 Deming 71 100 69 100 / 20 20 0 0 Lordsburg 68 96 66 96 / 30 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 100 75 100 / 20 20 10 10 Dell City 71 101 68 97 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 76 103 73 102 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 71 96 68 93 / 0 20 20 10 Fabens 75 102 73 102 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 71 99 / 20 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 101 75 99 / 10 30 10 10 Jornada Range 69 100 66 98 / 10 30 10 0 Hatch 69 100 67 102 / 30 20 0 0 Columbus 75 100 74 100 / 20 20 0 0 Orogrande 68 100 67 97 / 0 10 0 10 Mayhill 63 91 57 86 / 0 40 20 70 Mescalero 58 91 55 87 / 0 60 20 60 Timberon 56 88 53 83 / 0 30 10 50 Winston 63 93 59 90 / 20 40 10 0 Hillsboro 69 98 66 96 / 20 30 10 0 Spaceport 66 100 64 98 / 10 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 93 55 92 / 40 60 10 0 Hurley 65 95 63 94 / 30 30 0 0 Cliff 60 97 59 97 / 30 50 0 0 Mule Creek 55 93 55 92 / 30 40 0 0 Faywood 68 95 65 94 / 20 30 0 0 Animas 65 96 64 96 / 50 10 10 0 Hachita 66 96 65 96 / 40 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 66 94 66 94 / 30 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 90 61 89 / 40 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.