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FXUS64 KEPZ 230544 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1144 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Breezy west winds in the afternoon hours this weekend with seasonally dry air gradually moving in. Hotter than normal temperatures will peak Saturday for the desert lowlands. An east push early next week will return above normal moisture. This leads to typical afternoon storms for most of next week and slightly warmer than normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Tonight through Sunday...

Current observations show warmer than normal temperatures around the region and breezy west winds with some light gusts. 24 hour RH change shows 15 to 25% lower values this afternoon, hinting that mixing heights are able to rise and drier air is seeping in from the west/northwest. Satellite shows mostly clear skies this afternoon, which will remain that way through the evening.

In the upper levels, the CWA is sandwich's between an high pressure centered to the south (over northern MX) and a few shortwaves to the north. This is leading to stronger winds aloft (around 35 to 45kts at 500mbs). This pattern will persist through Sunday as a few shortwaves move from west to east over the Rockies. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will around 5 to 15 degrees above normal areawide. At this time there is no guidance showing KELP reaching triple digits, however the Lower Rio Grande Valley does have anywhere from 10 to 40% chances of touching 100F.

Sunday, the short waves move out of the west and the center of the upper level high retreats south. This relaxes the upper level flow aloft and allows temperatures to return to near or slightly above normal. Dry air will persist and allow overnight low temperatures to cool down to near to slightly above normal.

Monday through Friday...

Overnight Sunday into Monday, a back door front will rush down the southern plains and move through the region. Near to above normal moisture will return to the CWA. This boundary will move more moist air into the region and not do a whole lot to cool the air down. High temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal. Chances for afternoon storms return and will have the best coverage Monday evening/night and Tuesday afternoon. At this time, there isn't much upper level support for storm initiation. This could mean storms will start along the boundary and then continue where outflows give them an initial boost. There will be light be present shear which could lead to a storm or two lasting longer than the typical pop and drop storms we see.

Going into mid week next week, surface high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west will persist and keep south/southeast flow over the CWA. Above normal moisture will continue and lead to higher terrain storms in the early afternoon with outflows and isolated storms in the lowlands during the evening hours.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through next week and will be highly dependent on where cloud cover persists.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the period.
Skies generally SKC-SCT250. Surface winds will be variable in direction at 3-5kts West winds will increase to 8-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after 18Z tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri Sep 22 2023

Dry weather through this weekend as moisture erodes and high pressure aloft over northern Mexico increases its influence over the region. Minimum RH values will be lower today (20-40%), decreasing further over the weekend (15-30%). Winds will be consistently out of the west all weekend, increasing to 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon hours. This will lead to good mixing and Very Good smoke ventilation.

Winds shifting to the east/southeast on Monday as the surface high develops over the Southern Plains. Our next rain chances look to be Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. No significant fire weather expected through the rest of September.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 70 98 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 92 64 90 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 62 93 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 70 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 92 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 59 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 60 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 67 99 66 96 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 65 90 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 97 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 94 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 95 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 93 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 94 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 93 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 52 80 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 52 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 92 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 57 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 91 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 56 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 59 93 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 60 93 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 93 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

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