Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for La Union, NM
April 24, 2024 8:22 PM MDT (02:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 7:44 PM Moonset 5:40 AM |
Area Discussion for - El Paso, TX
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242337 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 537 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Windy conditions are expected through Saturday with the strongest winds on Thursday and Saturday. It will still be breezy on Sunday, but more tranquil but warm conditions are expected for next week. Eastern areas have a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm starting Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
It is a quiet afternoon. Southern NM and Far West TX is sitting beneath the back-side of a ridge with plenty of high clouds feeding in from the southwest. This will keep us warm and tranquil through tonight, but that changes quickly for tomorrow. A s/w trough off the Southern CA coast will swing eastward overnight tonight causing an H500 jet to eject over our CWA toward morning, continuing northeast into the afternoon, beginning to exit by evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a >990 mb low will deepen over eastern CO with strengthening Pacific front to help pack the gradients even further. If you've read these AFDs before, you know that means a windy day is upon us. Looking at NBM probability and forecast soundings, top gusts look to range 45 to 60 MPH, with the strongest winds along the east slopes of the San Andres-Organs and higher elevations of the Sacs. Thus, the current wind headlines look good. The only zone I am a bit unsure about is East El Paso, where NBM places 50 knots right at the 50th percentile with 53 knots at 75%. Last event, top gusts fell short of the 75th percentile, making me less confident in the probabilities I'm seeing. Ultimately, what broke the tie for me to keep it an advisory was looking at the GFS forecast sounding, which usually is really good at predicting top gusts for east slope locations.
It shows a top gust at 46 knots. Nevertheless, any uptick in guidance would probably warrant an upgrade to a warning. I will let future shifts take a look at that.
On Friday we will see a minor lull in wind as this first system kicks out and Saturday's approaches. We will still be at the base of the long-wave trough though keeping moderate flow aloft and a >1000 mb low over the OK Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy to low-end windy for Friday. Then, on Saturday, the second impulse arrives further deepening the surface low with a 990 mb low over SW KS and a 85+ knot H500 jet. NBM probabilities for Saturday are just a touch under Thursdays, but operational GFS is a touch stronger. Thus, more wind products will likely be needed. With current headlines in place, I will forego issuing any now, but east slopes of the Tularosa basin and portions of the Sacs could already support a high wind watch otherwise. This system will also bring low-end precip chances to our mountains, especially the Gila.
Saturday's system departs setting the stage for quieter conditions. We'll still be on the backside of the trough Sunday keeping us breezy, but by Monday ridging will build first over us before shifting more to our east. Southwest flow aloft will set-up allowing us to warm well above normal. The dryline game begins on Tuesday with a chance for showers and storms east of the dryline.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
VFR conditions will prevail this evening and into the overnight hours with breezy winds lingering. BKN250 will hang around tonight but will gradually decrease in coverage becoming SKC after 18Z for terminals. Winds increase to around 15G25KT at 15Z and will increase heading into the early afternoon hours with max winds being seen around 21Z. KELP has the highest chance of seeing dust issues tomorrow afternoon. KLRU and KDMN also have a chance of seeing dust issues tomorrow but confidence is not as high compared to what's expected at KELP. Dust should begin lofting up in the early afternoon and should begin causing issues in the mid afternoon lasting until sunset. Visibilities could be down 1-2SM for KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
THURSDAY
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL
An active fire weather pattern is upon us. Winds will increase tomorrow while min RH values fall into the single-digits. RFTI values of 5-7 are expected. The Gila is included within the Red Flag, but given wetter fuels and RFTI of 5, conditions are more marginal there.
Winds look to top out 25 to 35 MPH area wide. Vent rates will be excellent.
FRIDAY
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
For Friday, winds decrease but with min RH values falling into the lower teens.
Winds will range 17 to 22 MPH, so locally critical conditions will be met, especially across Sierra County. At this time though, it appears less than half of each lowland zone will meet critical conditions. No fire headlines will be issued for this shift, but any increase in winds may warrant issuance with future updates.
Vent rates will be excellent.
SATURDAY
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
Winds will increase again on Saturday for the entire area, especially east slopes and higher elevations, ranging 20 to 30 MPH. Temperatures will cool, however, helping to improve RH values, especially in higher elevations and locations west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Areas along the RGV, Tularosa Basin, and into West Texas will have the highest probability for critical conditions, so a fire weather watch has been issued. Portions of Zone 111, mainly Luna Co, look to meet criteria as well, but I'm not confident enough a significant portion of the fire zone will meet criteria to include it in the watch.
REST OF PERIOD...We enter a stretch of quieter weather. It will be very dry and warm Sunday onward, but winds look to fall short of any critical thresholds. Elevated conditions will be possible on Sunday as winds top out around 15 MPH, but no critical conditions are anticipated Sunday onward at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 65 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 83 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 82 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 57 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 83 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 87 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 90 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 87 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 70 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 76 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411- 414-417-426-428-429.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416- 427.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ112.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 537 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Windy conditions are expected through Saturday with the strongest winds on Thursday and Saturday. It will still be breezy on Sunday, but more tranquil but warm conditions are expected for next week. Eastern areas have a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm starting Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
It is a quiet afternoon. Southern NM and Far West TX is sitting beneath the back-side of a ridge with plenty of high clouds feeding in from the southwest. This will keep us warm and tranquil through tonight, but that changes quickly for tomorrow. A s/w trough off the Southern CA coast will swing eastward overnight tonight causing an H500 jet to eject over our CWA toward morning, continuing northeast into the afternoon, beginning to exit by evening. Meanwhile at the surface, a >990 mb low will deepen over eastern CO with strengthening Pacific front to help pack the gradients even further. If you've read these AFDs before, you know that means a windy day is upon us. Looking at NBM probability and forecast soundings, top gusts look to range 45 to 60 MPH, with the strongest winds along the east slopes of the San Andres-Organs and higher elevations of the Sacs. Thus, the current wind headlines look good. The only zone I am a bit unsure about is East El Paso, where NBM places 50 knots right at the 50th percentile with 53 knots at 75%. Last event, top gusts fell short of the 75th percentile, making me less confident in the probabilities I'm seeing. Ultimately, what broke the tie for me to keep it an advisory was looking at the GFS forecast sounding, which usually is really good at predicting top gusts for east slope locations.
It shows a top gust at 46 knots. Nevertheless, any uptick in guidance would probably warrant an upgrade to a warning. I will let future shifts take a look at that.
On Friday we will see a minor lull in wind as this first system kicks out and Saturday's approaches. We will still be at the base of the long-wave trough though keeping moderate flow aloft and a >1000 mb low over the OK Panhandle. Winds will remain breezy to low-end windy for Friday. Then, on Saturday, the second impulse arrives further deepening the surface low with a 990 mb low over SW KS and a 85+ knot H500 jet. NBM probabilities for Saturday are just a touch under Thursdays, but operational GFS is a touch stronger. Thus, more wind products will likely be needed. With current headlines in place, I will forego issuing any now, but east slopes of the Tularosa basin and portions of the Sacs could already support a high wind watch otherwise. This system will also bring low-end precip chances to our mountains, especially the Gila.
Saturday's system departs setting the stage for quieter conditions. We'll still be on the backside of the trough Sunday keeping us breezy, but by Monday ridging will build first over us before shifting more to our east. Southwest flow aloft will set-up allowing us to warm well above normal. The dryline game begins on Tuesday with a chance for showers and storms east of the dryline.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
VFR conditions will prevail this evening and into the overnight hours with breezy winds lingering. BKN250 will hang around tonight but will gradually decrease in coverage becoming SKC after 18Z for terminals. Winds increase to around 15G25KT at 15Z and will increase heading into the early afternoon hours with max winds being seen around 21Z. KELP has the highest chance of seeing dust issues tomorrow afternoon. KLRU and KDMN also have a chance of seeing dust issues tomorrow but confidence is not as high compared to what's expected at KELP. Dust should begin lofting up in the early afternoon and should begin causing issues in the mid afternoon lasting until sunset. Visibilities could be down 1-2SM for KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024
THURSDAY
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL
An active fire weather pattern is upon us. Winds will increase tomorrow while min RH values fall into the single-digits. RFTI values of 5-7 are expected. The Gila is included within the Red Flag, but given wetter fuels and RFTI of 5, conditions are more marginal there.
Winds look to top out 25 to 35 MPH area wide. Vent rates will be excellent.
FRIDAY
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
For Friday, winds decrease but with min RH values falling into the lower teens.
Winds will range 17 to 22 MPH, so locally critical conditions will be met, especially across Sierra County. At this time though, it appears less than half of each lowland zone will meet critical conditions. No fire headlines will be issued for this shift, but any increase in winds may warrant issuance with future updates.
Vent rates will be excellent.
SATURDAY
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
Winds will increase again on Saturday for the entire area, especially east slopes and higher elevations, ranging 20 to 30 MPH. Temperatures will cool, however, helping to improve RH values, especially in higher elevations and locations west of the Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Areas along the RGV, Tularosa Basin, and into West Texas will have the highest probability for critical conditions, so a fire weather watch has been issued. Portions of Zone 111, mainly Luna Co, look to meet criteria as well, but I'm not confident enough a significant portion of the fire zone will meet criteria to include it in the watch.
REST OF PERIOD...We enter a stretch of quieter weather. It will be very dry and warm Sunday onward, but winds look to fall short of any critical thresholds. Elevated conditions will be possible on Sunday as winds top out around 15 MPH, but no critical conditions are anticipated Sunday onward at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 65 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 83 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 82 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 81 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 57 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 75 43 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 83 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 87 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 90 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 87 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 80 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 70 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 71 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 76 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ055-056.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for TXZ418>424.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ110>113.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ403-406>411- 414-417-426-428-429.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ415-416- 427.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ112.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDNA DONA ANA COUNTY INTL JETPORT,NM | 5 sm | 27 min | W 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 21°F | 11% | 29.98 | |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 16 sm | 27 min | SW 01 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 84°F | 21°F | 10% | 29.98 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 18 sm | 31 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 82°F | 21°F | 10% | 29.94 |
El Paso, TX,
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