Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 2:58 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 411 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Wave detail: nw 1 ft at 2 seconds.Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wave detail: W 1 ft at 2 seconds. Sun - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 411 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure centered over the mid atlantic today shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and moves through into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region from southeast canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the atlantic for the latter half of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 010821 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 421 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic today shifts offshore Sunday. A disturbance approaches late Sunday and passes nearby into early Monday. High pressure then builds across the region from Southeast Canada through Tuesday night. The high moves out in to the Atlantic for the latter half of the week. A frontal system approaches from the west towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pleasant start to the month of June and meteorological summer across the local Tri-State with surface high pressure nearby and ridging aloft today.

A light northwest flow around the top of the high gradually backs west through the day as the high shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Deep mixing up to 750 mb should allow much of the region away from the immediate shoreline to achieve lower 80s by lunchtime, or 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early June. Only caveat is the potential sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon hours, dropping temps back into the 70s for coastal locales. Subsidence should mitigate most cloud cover, absent what little cu can develop. The minimal moisture with surface dew points in the 40s and low 50s will only add to the comfort of the air mass, sparing for now the higher humidity that summer often brings.

Tonight, a shearing shortwave lifting northeast across the Midwest will attempt to shunt the ridging in place locally. This will introduce high clouds overnight ahead of the shortwave, but conditions remain dry as temperatures fall back into the 50s and 60s once again.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure sits offshore on Sunday, while the ridging aloft flattens with the approach of the weakening shortwave. High clouds gradually thicken and lower through the day, eventually bringing the chance for a few rain showers by the evening and overnight hours.
Coverage appears limited however with weak forcing and moisture to work with. A lack of instability should preclude most thunderstorm activity, but a rogue rumble of thunder can't be entirely ruled out.

Still some range in the solutions offered by global guidance, with the GEFS farther north with the disturbance than the GEPS or ENS on the 00z runs. It's possible portions of the region, especially into southern Connecticut, remain entirely dry should the southern solutions verify, but regardless, overall QPF is expected to be light.

The weak surface feature passes near of just south of the region early Monday. Surface high pressure then begins to return from the north, though the lingering frontal boundary to the south could instigate a spotty shower into the afternoon. Temperatures during the day range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions prevail Monday night with temperate lows in the 50s and 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid levels exhibit a transition from weak ridging around midweek to a large approaching cutoff mid level low Thursday into the end of the week.

Mid level ridging appears to be relatively strongest Tuesday through Wednesday while at the surface, high pressure builds in locally from the north. The origin for the high pressure is in the Canadian Maritimes.

For Thursday into the end of the week, a warm front approaches Thursday and eventually moves across by early Friday. A cold front then follows for Friday into Friday night. Surface trough pattern remains for the next weekend.

The airmass will become more moist with the forecast also having more chances of rain, especially from Wednesday night onward when POPs of at least 25% are present within the forecast region for at least a part of the region. Overall, the winds will have more onshore component as well, helping to eventually raise the dewpoints.

There could be a few thunderstorms embedded within the showers but probabilities for this are just slight, mainly in the timeframe of Thursday through Friday.

Temperature do not appear to deviate too significantly from climatological normals during this long term.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure continues to move into the region during the TAF period, with its center south of the area late today into tonight.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind speeds are expected to be mainly near or less than 10 kts much of the TAF period. Wind direction will initially be NW, or more variable going into early today with winds becoming more W-SW with some coastal terminals expected to a sea breeze for afternoon into early evening.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a lower confidence wind direction forecast today. KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN, KEWR and KTEB have low chances of getting sea breezes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction this afternoon depending on the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival time could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Tonight-Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or lower possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible the day into night in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week, with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Great Kills Harbor
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Sat -- 03:41 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:30 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
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Sat -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
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Sat -- 02:42 AM EDT     1.57 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:10 AM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
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Sat -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     -2.09 knots Max Ebb
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