Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1101 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves around 2 ft.Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1101 Am Edt Sun Jun 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure moves across the area today and stays offshore while remaining in control through most of the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 161457 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1057 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves across the area today and stays offshore while remaining in control through most of the week. The high shifts south off the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the week into the weekend as disturbances pass to the north Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast remains track this morning. Only nudged up high temps for parts of LI slightly with this update.

High pressure is positioned over the area today, gradually sliding offshore through the evening and into tonight. Mostly clear skies with comfortable conditions are expected today with a light east wind gradually shifting to the southeast and south this afternoon. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s for much of the area.

Low level moisture gradually increases tonight with a southerly flow advecting higher dew points into the area as the high shifts into the Western Atlantic. This may result in the development of some low stratus for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley or along the immediate coast but confidence in occurrence and coverage is low. Lows will be in the upper 50s for interior and eastern portions of the area with the NYC metro only falling into the low to middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The large scale ridge begins to build overhead and strengthen into Monday with surface high pressure remaining offshore. A continued south to southwest flow will continue to allow for increased moisture advection along with the advection of warmer air. Highs on Monday will begin to increase a bit with western areas climbing into the upper 80s to possibly near 90. Long Island and Southern CT will be in the low to middle 80s. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions continue. Lows Monday night will be in the middle 60s to near 70 near the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected Tuesday through next Saturday.

* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially around 105 during this time.

* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure will be offshore to our east and remain in control through most of the week resulting in a persistent S/SW flow. Aloft, an upper level ridge continues to build over the northeast US. Latest global guidance continues to show 500mb heights peaking on Thursday around 598dam to 600dam. To give an idea of how anomalous this is, the highest 500mb height the OKX sounding has ever recorded is 598dam per the SPC Sounding Climatology Page and the highest ever recorded in June is 597dam. This set up will bring long duration heat and humidity to the area starting Tuesday, likely peaking Thursday and potentially continuing into Saturday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed with this event, with the potential for Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings.

Forecast highs were derived by blending the previous forecast with the NBM and NBM 50th percentile. Overall this nudged up highs for most areas from the previous forecast. Highs in the 90s with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s will result in heat index values from 95 to about 105. Given the S/SW flow, the areas that will see the highest temperatures will be northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT. The flow will keep Long Island, coastal CT and even parts of NYC a bit lower, but still likely Advisory criteria for at least some days. Along with hot and humid temperatures during the daylight hours, overnight lows will not give much relief as they will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The best chance to break any record highs looks to be Thursday. There will also likely be record high low temperatures on Thursday as well.

With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. The onset of the heat will be occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs, with the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT.

The upper level ridge begins to flatten Thursday and the flow becomes zonal Friday. At the same time, high pressure gets suppressed farther south. With the approach of a surface trough, chances of showers/thunderstorms return Friday and continue through the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure building across this morning will pass offshore this afternoon and evening.

VFR. There is a chance of some low stratus development with IFR cigs in and around the NYC Metro area tonight. Confidence in occurrence is low but opted to include the potential via TEMPO, generally from about 06Z-10Z but possibly as early as 03Z. Any low stratus should clear to VFR before the morning push.

Winds are beginning to veer from NE-E, and should become SE this afternoon 8-12 kt, highest closer to the immediate the coast and where direction could be more southerly than fcst, especially at KJFK/KLGA/KISP.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence in low stratus development tonight with IFR cig potential.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday...Mainly VFR. S-SW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The moderate risk of rip currents continues both Sunday and Monday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Fort Hamilton, The Narrows, New York, Tide feet

The Narrows
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Sun -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:28 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:38 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:05 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Narrows, Midchannel, New York Harbor, New York Current, knots

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