Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO
July 3, 2024 3:34 AM MDT (09:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:40 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:12 AM Moonset 5:57 PM |
FXUS65 KPUB 030452 CCA AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon over the plains, with scattered late night storms over the plains (Better chance of svr wx tomorrow).
- Drier air has moved into the interior mountains.
- A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern keeping chances of showers and storms across Eastern Colorado through the Holiday Weekend.
- Drier conditions across south central Colorado with increasing fire danger and pockets of near critical fire weather conditions.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently...
Looking at water vapor, drier air has moved into most of Colorado at mid and high levels. Time lapse of sfc dwpt charts show dramatic drying conditions across Utah and NW Colorado. However, lower levels over the remainder of the state show dewpts still holding into the 40s and 50s, with 60s along the KS border.
Over the fcst area, temps were in the 80s to around 90 across th e plains, with75-80 in the valleys.
Rest of Today into Tonight...
Main concern will be thunderstorm activity over the plains. As of 2 pm, a few storms were starting to develop over the Raton Mesa, and expect storms should start to go over the Palmer. These storms will push east and work into the more unstable and sheared atmosphere out east, and this will allow for the potential for the storms to increase in intensity. Overall best environment will be along the Raton Mesa and along to CO/KS border later this afternoon and evening.
Later tonight, some guidance continues to indicate that another round of storms may initiate along the I-25 corridor and push east, and these storms may continue to be in an elevated unstable environment and could be strong. These storms may last well into the early morning hours out east.
Otherwise, with the drier air advecting west, mountains should remain dry.
Tomorrow...
All of plains is outlooked for svr storms tomorrow, with areas north and east of La Junta in Slight Risk. Can't argue with this outlook as guidance pushes 50s and 60 dwpts back west late tonight and the low level atmosphere should be rather unstable tomorrow with CAPE values by afternoon in the 1500-2000 range per ensemble svr wx guidance. Good upslope combined with 30 knts of mid level westerlies should yield favorable deep shear. Overall, expect it to be a bit busier tomorrow given a rather favorable Day-2 setup over the region.
Interior higher terrain is likely to remain dry, and it will be breezy over the central mtns with winds in the 20 to 40 mph range across the higher elevations of the central mtns. Overall, max temps tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today.
If we can get a fairly decent MCS set up over western KS tonight (and a moist outflow push back towards the mtns), then tomorrows severe weather threat could be higher. \/Hodanish
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night-Independence Day Night...Latest models continue to indicate a broad northwest flow pattern across the Central Rockies, with occasional short waves translating through the westerly flow across the Northern Tier as a large ridge of high pressure builds across the West Coast. A passing Northern Rockies wave late Wednesday night is expected to send a cold front across the Eastern Colorado through the day Thursday, with increasing low level moisture expected across eastern Colorado within developing upslope flow Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite the drier air aloft working into Western Colorado, latest models are indicating enough moisture to work with another ripple within the northwest flow aloft to support increasing clouds and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the eastern mtns Thursday evening, with the potential for storms to roll south and east across the southeast Plains Thursday night. With a faster timing of the cold front, temperatures on Independence Day now look to be at to slightly below seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the southeast Plains and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain, save into the lower 80s across the high mountain valleys.
With the breezy northwest flow aloft on Thursday, there still could be pockets of near critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central Colorado, especially along the ContDvd.
Friday-Sunday...Moderate northwest flow aloft continues across the region, with continued upslope flow across the southeast plains keeping temperatures below seasonal levels on Friday. With low level moisture in place and another passing wave, there will continue to be chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over and near the Southeast Mountains, with chances of showers and storms rolling across the southeast Plains once again Friday evening and night. Warmer and drier conditions are now in the offing on Saturday with another embedded wave moving across the Rockies on Sunday bringing chances of showers and storms for areas over and near the Southeast Mountains and Plains, and slightly cooler temperatures.
Again, the breezy northwest flow aloft could keep pockets of near critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central Colorado through the Holiday Weekend.
For Monday into early next week, models do suggest the upper level high across the West Coast to begin to push east, with some mid level moisture return around the high leading to daily chances of afternoon showers and storms areawide, with temperatures around seasonal levels.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be generally light (mostly less than 10 kts) and primarily influenced by a synoptic pattern, with winds then becoming gusty out of the WSW at KALS, SSE-SSW at KCOS, and ESE-SE at KPUB by later in the day. Winds will weaken and become more diurnally influenced by later in the evening tomorrow, towards the end of the forecast period. There is very low confidence of VCSH/SHRA and possible VCTS/-TSRA at KALS (less than 20 percent) during the afternoon hours tomorrow, and better confidence of occurrence (30 percent)
at KCOS and KPUB after 20Z (mainly between 20 and 00Z). If SHRA/TSRA does occur, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all terminals. -Stewey
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon over the plains, with scattered late night storms over the plains (Better chance of svr wx tomorrow).
- Drier air has moved into the interior mountains.
- A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern keeping chances of showers and storms across Eastern Colorado through the Holiday Weekend.
- Drier conditions across south central Colorado with increasing fire danger and pockets of near critical fire weather conditions.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently...
Looking at water vapor, drier air has moved into most of Colorado at mid and high levels. Time lapse of sfc dwpt charts show dramatic drying conditions across Utah and NW Colorado. However, lower levels over the remainder of the state show dewpts still holding into the 40s and 50s, with 60s along the KS border.
Over the fcst area, temps were in the 80s to around 90 across th e plains, with75-80 in the valleys.
Rest of Today into Tonight...
Main concern will be thunderstorm activity over the plains. As of 2 pm, a few storms were starting to develop over the Raton Mesa, and expect storms should start to go over the Palmer. These storms will push east and work into the more unstable and sheared atmosphere out east, and this will allow for the potential for the storms to increase in intensity. Overall best environment will be along the Raton Mesa and along to CO/KS border later this afternoon and evening.
Later tonight, some guidance continues to indicate that another round of storms may initiate along the I-25 corridor and push east, and these storms may continue to be in an elevated unstable environment and could be strong. These storms may last well into the early morning hours out east.
Otherwise, with the drier air advecting west, mountains should remain dry.
Tomorrow...
All of plains is outlooked for svr storms tomorrow, with areas north and east of La Junta in Slight Risk. Can't argue with this outlook as guidance pushes 50s and 60 dwpts back west late tonight and the low level atmosphere should be rather unstable tomorrow with CAPE values by afternoon in the 1500-2000 range per ensemble svr wx guidance. Good upslope combined with 30 knts of mid level westerlies should yield favorable deep shear. Overall, expect it to be a bit busier tomorrow given a rather favorable Day-2 setup over the region.
Interior higher terrain is likely to remain dry, and it will be breezy over the central mtns with winds in the 20 to 40 mph range across the higher elevations of the central mtns. Overall, max temps tomorrow will be 2 to 4 degrees cooler than today.
If we can get a fairly decent MCS set up over western KS tonight (and a moist outflow push back towards the mtns), then tomorrows severe weather threat could be higher. \/Hodanish
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Wednesday night-Independence Day Night...Latest models continue to indicate a broad northwest flow pattern across the Central Rockies, with occasional short waves translating through the westerly flow across the Northern Tier as a large ridge of high pressure builds across the West Coast. A passing Northern Rockies wave late Wednesday night is expected to send a cold front across the Eastern Colorado through the day Thursday, with increasing low level moisture expected across eastern Colorado within developing upslope flow Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite the drier air aloft working into Western Colorado, latest models are indicating enough moisture to work with another ripple within the northwest flow aloft to support increasing clouds and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the eastern mtns Thursday evening, with the potential for storms to roll south and east across the southeast Plains Thursday night. With a faster timing of the cold front, temperatures on Independence Day now look to be at to slightly below seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the southeast Plains and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain, save into the lower 80s across the high mountain valleys.
With the breezy northwest flow aloft on Thursday, there still could be pockets of near critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central Colorado, especially along the ContDvd.
Friday-Sunday...Moderate northwest flow aloft continues across the region, with continued upslope flow across the southeast plains keeping temperatures below seasonal levels on Friday. With low level moisture in place and another passing wave, there will continue to be chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over and near the Southeast Mountains, with chances of showers and storms rolling across the southeast Plains once again Friday evening and night. Warmer and drier conditions are now in the offing on Saturday with another embedded wave moving across the Rockies on Sunday bringing chances of showers and storms for areas over and near the Southeast Mountains and Plains, and slightly cooler temperatures.
Again, the breezy northwest flow aloft could keep pockets of near critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central Colorado through the Holiday Weekend.
For Monday into early next week, models do suggest the upper level high across the West Coast to begin to push east, with some mid level moisture return around the high leading to daily chances of afternoon showers and storms areawide, with temperatures around seasonal levels.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be generally light (mostly less than 10 kts) and primarily influenced by a synoptic pattern, with winds then becoming gusty out of the WSW at KALS, SSE-SSW at KCOS, and ESE-SE at KPUB by later in the day. Winds will weaken and become more diurnally influenced by later in the evening tomorrow, towards the end of the forecast period. There is very low confidence of VCSH/SHRA and possible VCTS/-TSRA at KALS (less than 20 percent) during the afternoon hours tomorrow, and better confidence of occurrence (30 percent)
at KCOS and KPUB after 20Z (mainly between 20 and 00Z). If SHRA/TSRA does occur, it could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all terminals. -Stewey
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFCS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFCS
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFCS
Wind History graph: FCS
(wind in knots)
Pueblo, CO,
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