Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, CO
March 29, 2024 1:13 AM MDT (07:13 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
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FXUS65 KPUB 290446 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1046 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing Fire Danger is expected from tomorrow through Sunday across our plains.
- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight through early Saturday morning across the central mountains,
- Cooler temperatures and rain/snow chances return for the lower elevations early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Currently...
Satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies over the plains this afternoon, with increasing cloudiness over the high country.
Temperatures have risen into the 60s across the lower elevations as of 2pm, with dew points mostly in the mostly in the teens and single digits. Notably, Fort Carson is experiencing red flag conditions this hour, due to narrow gap flow winds across the area.
Tonight..
This evening into tonight...the mid-level ridge will continue to slide eastward and flatten across the area. As this occurs, a weak mid-level short wave and increasing lower level moisture will allow for some upsloping snow showers to resume across the San Juans and Sawatch Range overnight. Given the best forcing with the short wave will be north of the area, anticipate that upsloping snow showers will be increasing and becoming more persistent overnight for the central mountains. Accumulation amounts will be light to moderate, with highest amounts over western Chaffee county above 11,000 feet, where 5-10 inches of new snow is expected by tomorrow night. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect at midnight and remains in place until 6am Saturday morning for the eastern Sawatch Mountains.
Tomorrow..
Early morning low temperatures look to remain just a couple degrees above normal, with most of our plains starting out Friday a few degrees above freezing. We warm quickly under mostly sunny skies and breezy west-southwesterly winds, with daytime highs soaring into the 70s across most of our eastern plains, into 60s for the I-25 corridor, and into the 50s for mountain valleys. Snow continues over the highest elevations of the Continental Divide throughout the day tomorrow, with some very light wintry precip possible for several hours over Teller County tomorrow afternoon as well, though no accumulation is expected over the Pikes Peak region.
As a trough continues to dig in across the Rockies, southwesterly winds increase over southern portions of our forecast area. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will lead to periods of critical fire weather conditions, beginning on Friday afternoon across our southeastern plains. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Baca County and eastern Las Animas County for tomorrow afternoon, where winds are expected to gust up to 25 mph, and relative humidities as low as 13% are expected.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Saturday and Sunday..
For the Plains..Models continue to bring a trough across the southern Rockies through the weekend, with a low tracking down the California Coast until it splits into two separate lobes of energy late Saturday into Sunday. The southern extent of the trough and the southern lobe of energy continue to push further south throughout Sunday. As the amplitude of the trough deepens, and jet energy increases over the region, our winds and overall dryness will both increase as well. This will mean three days (Friday through Sunday) of increasing dryness for our vegetation, three days of above normal temperatures, and increasing wind speeds each day as well, with Sunday being the most impactful and most widespread day of expected Fire Danger.
We have gone ahead with a Fire Weather Watch for our southeastern plains for Saturday afternoon as well, though this area could be expanded in both timing and/or areal extent as this period gets closer in time. Fire Weather Highlights are Very Likely (>90%) for Sunday also. Please avoid all actions that could start a fire this weekend!
For the High Country..
After a brief 6 to 12 hour lull in mountain snow early Saturday morning, light snow showers pick back up off and on over the weekend, though accumulations remain very light until later Sunday evening. Snow remains limited to the highest peaks of the central mountains the San Juans, with generally less than 3 inches of new snow expected through the weekend timeframe. That said, very strong winds are expected this weekend, with gusts up to 60mph expected on Saturday and up to 70mph expected on Sunday. Strongest gusts are likely over the Sangres late Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening, which coincides with when snow showers are likely to begin to make their way into the eastern mountains..
Monday through Thursday...
A positively tilted longwave trough over the Great Basin will continue to advance eastward and over the region on Monday. There is going to be an ample amount of mid-level moisture associated with this, and while the general position of the trough is similar between the deterministic models, there is some slight disagreement in terms of the speed and progression of this as it moves overhead throughout the day. The GFS model keeps the movement a little slower than both of the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. Due to this, there is still some uncertainty as to how this will evolve and which parts of southeast Colorado will be impacted the most. If the GFS resolves this the best, there could be showers continuing into the later hours on Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF and Canadian have things clearing out by early Tuesday morning.
Snow will continue to increase over the higher terrain throughout the day on Monday. Given the orientation of this trough, with strong southwesterly flow in the mid-levels and plenty of moisture advection, the southwestern mountains will likely receive the highest amounts of total snowfall. Initially, there will be strong and gusty surface winds ahead of the passage of this trough, especially over the southeastern plains.
However, relative humidity values at this time look to remain high enough being that it is still early in the day to where fire weather conditions should not be a concern. These winds look to then come around out of the north to northeast by later in the morning with the passage of a cold front and this will also help to reinforce higher humidity values with cold air advection as temperatures steadily drop off throughout the day.
Snow levels will likely remain high enough to where a majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain over the plains, although there could be some mixing of snow for the higher elevations during the day, generally above 5500 to 6000 ft elevation. This will eventually transition over to all snow going into the late night hours on Monday through Tuesday morning. A consensus of model guidance does suggest that most of the precip should come to an end by Tuesday morning, with possibly some snow showers still ongoing into the afternoon hours on Tuesday over the southern mountains and Raton Mesa area.
The trough will continue to exit with a ridge building in over the region by Wednesday and high pressure conditions back in control going into Wednesday through Thursday. This will allow for a nice rebound in temperatures with highs back around the seasonal average on Wednesday and perhaps even a few degrees above average by Thursday for locations within the San Luis Valley over the plains as downsloping and adiabatically warming southwesterly winds return. This could also bring about the threat of fire weather conditions during the afternoon over portions of the plains on Thursday. -Stewey
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be more synoptically driven at all terminals by an approaching low pressure system throughout the day, but then weaken and become more diurnally influenced at night. Southwesterly winds will gust as high as 37 kts at KALS, 32 kts at KPUB, and 28 kts at KPUB by the afternoon and throughout the early evening tomorrow, then winds will begin to subside again towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ060.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ233-237.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ233-237.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1046 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing Fire Danger is expected from tomorrow through Sunday across our plains.
- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight through early Saturday morning across the central mountains,
- Cooler temperatures and rain/snow chances return for the lower elevations early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Currently...
Satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies over the plains this afternoon, with increasing cloudiness over the high country.
Temperatures have risen into the 60s across the lower elevations as of 2pm, with dew points mostly in the mostly in the teens and single digits. Notably, Fort Carson is experiencing red flag conditions this hour, due to narrow gap flow winds across the area.
Tonight..
This evening into tonight...the mid-level ridge will continue to slide eastward and flatten across the area. As this occurs, a weak mid-level short wave and increasing lower level moisture will allow for some upsloping snow showers to resume across the San Juans and Sawatch Range overnight. Given the best forcing with the short wave will be north of the area, anticipate that upsloping snow showers will be increasing and becoming more persistent overnight for the central mountains. Accumulation amounts will be light to moderate, with highest amounts over western Chaffee county above 11,000 feet, where 5-10 inches of new snow is expected by tomorrow night. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect at midnight and remains in place until 6am Saturday morning for the eastern Sawatch Mountains.
Tomorrow..
Early morning low temperatures look to remain just a couple degrees above normal, with most of our plains starting out Friday a few degrees above freezing. We warm quickly under mostly sunny skies and breezy west-southwesterly winds, with daytime highs soaring into the 70s across most of our eastern plains, into 60s for the I-25 corridor, and into the 50s for mountain valleys. Snow continues over the highest elevations of the Continental Divide throughout the day tomorrow, with some very light wintry precip possible for several hours over Teller County tomorrow afternoon as well, though no accumulation is expected over the Pikes Peak region.
As a trough continues to dig in across the Rockies, southwesterly winds increase over southern portions of our forecast area. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will lead to periods of critical fire weather conditions, beginning on Friday afternoon across our southeastern plains. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Baca County and eastern Las Animas County for tomorrow afternoon, where winds are expected to gust up to 25 mph, and relative humidities as low as 13% are expected.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 334 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Saturday and Sunday..
For the Plains..Models continue to bring a trough across the southern Rockies through the weekend, with a low tracking down the California Coast until it splits into two separate lobes of energy late Saturday into Sunday. The southern extent of the trough and the southern lobe of energy continue to push further south throughout Sunday. As the amplitude of the trough deepens, and jet energy increases over the region, our winds and overall dryness will both increase as well. This will mean three days (Friday through Sunday) of increasing dryness for our vegetation, three days of above normal temperatures, and increasing wind speeds each day as well, with Sunday being the most impactful and most widespread day of expected Fire Danger.
We have gone ahead with a Fire Weather Watch for our southeastern plains for Saturday afternoon as well, though this area could be expanded in both timing and/or areal extent as this period gets closer in time. Fire Weather Highlights are Very Likely (>90%) for Sunday also. Please avoid all actions that could start a fire this weekend!
For the High Country..
After a brief 6 to 12 hour lull in mountain snow early Saturday morning, light snow showers pick back up off and on over the weekend, though accumulations remain very light until later Sunday evening. Snow remains limited to the highest peaks of the central mountains the San Juans, with generally less than 3 inches of new snow expected through the weekend timeframe. That said, very strong winds are expected this weekend, with gusts up to 60mph expected on Saturday and up to 70mph expected on Sunday. Strongest gusts are likely over the Sangres late Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening, which coincides with when snow showers are likely to begin to make their way into the eastern mountains..
Monday through Thursday...
A positively tilted longwave trough over the Great Basin will continue to advance eastward and over the region on Monday. There is going to be an ample amount of mid-level moisture associated with this, and while the general position of the trough is similar between the deterministic models, there is some slight disagreement in terms of the speed and progression of this as it moves overhead throughout the day. The GFS model keeps the movement a little slower than both of the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. Due to this, there is still some uncertainty as to how this will evolve and which parts of southeast Colorado will be impacted the most. If the GFS resolves this the best, there could be showers continuing into the later hours on Tuesday, whereas the ECMWF and Canadian have things clearing out by early Tuesday morning.
Snow will continue to increase over the higher terrain throughout the day on Monday. Given the orientation of this trough, with strong southwesterly flow in the mid-levels and plenty of moisture advection, the southwestern mountains will likely receive the highest amounts of total snowfall. Initially, there will be strong and gusty surface winds ahead of the passage of this trough, especially over the southeastern plains.
However, relative humidity values at this time look to remain high enough being that it is still early in the day to where fire weather conditions should not be a concern. These winds look to then come around out of the north to northeast by later in the morning with the passage of a cold front and this will also help to reinforce higher humidity values with cold air advection as temperatures steadily drop off throughout the day.
Snow levels will likely remain high enough to where a majority of the precipitation will be in the form of rain over the plains, although there could be some mixing of snow for the higher elevations during the day, generally above 5500 to 6000 ft elevation. This will eventually transition over to all snow going into the late night hours on Monday through Tuesday morning. A consensus of model guidance does suggest that most of the precip should come to an end by Tuesday morning, with possibly some snow showers still ongoing into the afternoon hours on Tuesday over the southern mountains and Raton Mesa area.
The trough will continue to exit with a ridge building in over the region by Wednesday and high pressure conditions back in control going into Wednesday through Thursday. This will allow for a nice rebound in temperatures with highs back around the seasonal average on Wednesday and perhaps even a few degrees above average by Thursday for locations within the San Luis Valley over the plains as downsloping and adiabatically warming southwesterly winds return. This could also bring about the threat of fire weather conditions during the afternoon over portions of the plains on Thursday. -Stewey
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be more synoptically driven at all terminals by an approaching low pressure system throughout the day, but then weaken and become more diurnally influenced at night. Southwesterly winds will gust as high as 37 kts at KALS, 32 kts at KPUB, and 28 kts at KPUB by the afternoon and throughout the early evening tomorrow, then winds will begin to subside again towards the end of the forecast period. -Stewey
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ060.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Friday for COZ233-237.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for COZ233-237.
Airport Reports
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