NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1055 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with afternoon heat indices of 98-103.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon and evening.

Late this morning, an upper level ridge lingers over the Southeast CONUS with an upper level low underneath the ridge.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough lingers across the Midwest.
Sfc high pressure remains anchored well offshore while TC Beryl continues to track N through Texas. Isolated showers are tracking through srn VA/NE NC. Humidity increases today with dew points rising into the mid 70s across much of the area. This combined with temps rising into the low to locally mid 90s will allow for heat indices to top out around or just above 100F in most areas. While a few localized areas may reach heat indices around 105F this afternoon, 105F heat indices don't look to be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. While yesterday's front has washed out, an uncapped environment will allow scattered showers/storms increase in coverage this afternoon across central portions of the FA (40-50% PoPs). Given the very humid (PWATs ~2.00") airmass in place and slow storm motions, locally heavy rainfall is possible (the threat for severe wx is quite low). Diurnal weakening quickly occurs this evening with dry wx expected overnight. Humid with forecast lows in the mid 70s for most.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread heat indices of 105-109F.

- Scattered showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heat and humidity lingers Tue and Wed with highs in the mid-upper 90s Tue and low-mid 90s Wed. Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s both days, heat indices rise to 105-109F Tue and 103-108F Wed. Heat Advisories are likely across much of the area both days. Tue looks to be the hotter day with some potential for heat indices approaching 110F in spots.

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl get lifted up by an upper level trough over the upper Midwest Tue-Wed. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area, the trailing cold front from the system moves towards the local area Wed, stalling E of the Appalachians on Wed night. A few isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible across central portions of the FA on Tue (25-30% PoPs) with higher PoPs across the W Piedmont on Wed (35-50% PoPs). Convection may linger into central portions of the FA Wed night as the cold front stalls.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Friday with a warming trend into early next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The best chance for widespread rain is Thursday into Friday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into Canada by Thu with direct rainfall from the system remaining to the NW of the local area. However, the trailing cold front from the system stalls E of the Appalachians Thu into Fri while a secondary surface low forms across the Carolinas. The combination of the surface low to the S and the stationary front will allow for PWATs to rise to ~2.5" Thu, remaining >2.0" through Fri night. As a result, scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected Thu afternoon (50-60% PoPs) through much of Fri/Fri evening (70% PoPs)
before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the shortwave exits the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the GEFS/EPS showing the potential for widespread 1-2" of rain.
Given the very moist environment, localized totals in excess of 3-4" appears probable. Scattered diurnal convection is possible Sat and Sun with the best chance on Sat (50-55% PoPs).

Highs in the lower 90s Thu, lower 80s W to upper 80s E Fri, upper 80s to lower 90s Sat, lower 90s Sun, and mid 90s Mon. Some model guidance suggests highs Fri may not make it out of the upper 70s W given the widespread convection. Lows in the 70s through the extended.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions prevail early this aftn w/ SCT-BKN cumulus but isolated to scattered tstms have begun to develop INVOF the terminals.
The convection will remain disorganized but will persist through early-mid evening before weakening. Have VCTS at all of the terminals through 00z and will amend as needed based on radar trends. LIFR VSBYs are possible with any storms. VFR tonight with mainly high clouds.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening timeframe). The greatest chance for reduces VSBYs/CIGs is Thu- Fri.

MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 7 AM this morning for ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1 NM.

- Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- SCA conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday due to increasing southerly winds.

Early this morning, a weak front is located over the local waters with winds out of the SW ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 foot.

A weak front will remain near the waters through tomorrow as it gradually dissipates over the area. Winds will generally remain out of the S to SSE and continue to run around 10 knots. Brief increases in wind speeds to around 10 to 15 knots will be possible both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to afternoon sea breezes. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet through this timeframe.

Southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. Local wind probs are maximized Wednesday evening through Wednesday night, showing a decent potential for gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. In addition, seas will increase to 4 to 5 feet and waves in the bay increase to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday night.
SCAs will likely be needed for at least the ocean and bay starting Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds continue to gust around 20 to 25 knots through the day Thursday, before gradually diminishing Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions then likely return late this week into this weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.