Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 12:03 PM   Moonset 12:16 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 853 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 853 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Synopsis -
scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms continue to be possible at nearly anytime across coastal waters, especially in swfl. A more typical summertime pattern sets up over the weekend and continues into next week as winds shift from wsw to ese. While hazardous waves and seas will remain possible in the vicinity of storms, light winds and seas are expected away from any storms.

FXUS62 KTBW 132325 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 725 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Most of the activity has dissipated with exception of a line of storms near LAL. This trend should continue through the evening and VFR ceilings/visibilities are expected until about 07Z when chances for showers increase. After the mid morning, daytime heating combined with ample moisture should allow thunderstorms to begin to develop, especially across SWFL. Convection is anticipated to be on and off through the afternoon and early evening hours. However, there guidance tries to keep it over southern terminals into the night. MVFR/IFR conditions along with erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. West to southwest winds prevail.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over Central and N Florida.

The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the next few hours.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens, winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature, at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime conditions return and last into next week.


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 93 79 90 / 40 50 30 60 FMY 76 89 77 89 / 60 70 60 80 GIF 75 94 76 93 / 50 70 40 60 SRQ 76 92 77 91 / 30 40 50 70 BKV 71 95 73 95 / 40 40 30 60 SPG 81 92 82 91 / 30 40 40 60

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

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Redfish Pass
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Thu -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:33 PM EDT     1.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Redfish Pass, Captiva Island (north end), Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     1.93 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:42 PM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots

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