Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flint, MI
July 3, 2024 4:29 PM EDT (20:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 9:18 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM Moonset 6:47 PM |
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 345 Pm Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south early in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 031953 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A stray shower or rumble of thunder remain possible toward the Canadian and Ohio borders as a weak cold front exits eastward by this evening.
- Today's front ushers in a typical summer air mass for the July 4th holiday. Partly sunny sky helps lift temperature to highs in the mid to upper 80s with moderate humidity.
- Showers and thunderstorms spread back across Lower MI Friday as the next low pressure system sets up in the Midwest.
DISCUSSION
Observational trends continue to frame a rather benign passage of the cold front through SE MI during late afternoon. Surface analyses indicate a mostly diffuse pressure trough with minimal contrast in air mass across the boundary helping explain the lack of shower coverage so far today. Better mid and upper level forcing is also reflected in greater shower/storm coverage in radar composite now well to the north and east across Ontario and Quebec. There is some extra instability being created between mid and high cloud breaks which hourly mesoanalysis hints may help surface based CAPE approach 1000 J/kg in a narrow corridor toward the Canadian/Ohio border. It's therefore prudent to keep the forecast open to a stray shower or rumble of thunder until the front exits the area toward 00Z this evening.
The front stalls across the Ohio valley tonight and is followed by equally diffuse high pressure late tonight and Thursday. The high pressure weakness raises doubts regarding cloud evolution, however upstream satellite trends this afternoon do support a clearing trend other than patchy cirrus. A fog signal is also absent from model soundings despite surface dewpoint projected to remain above 60 during the night and Thursday morning. Other than a stray lake breeze shower, the front holds far enough south for a dry July 4th around the area while temperatures warm into a typical mid 80s range under partly sunny sky.
The next low pressure system scheduled to affect the Great Lakes has a respectable satellite presentation centered roughly over Montana this afternoon. Consensus of regional/global models brings the mid level circulation into the northern Plains Thursday and into the Midwest by Friday morning. The associated surface low then connects with the stalled Ohio valley front to set up a well organized warm front and low to mid level moisture transport into Lower MI. Model 850-700 mb theta-e and lapse rate projections show a mature moisture and instability axis centered over Lower MI by 12Z Friday which is alone capable of numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms but also boosted by seasonably strong mid and upper level dynamic forcing. The mid level circulation is positively tilted but still exhibiting more than adequate DCVA across the central Great Lakes under a SW to NE oriented upper level jet max.
Good model consensus on a strong occlusion process sweeps the rainfall pattern into and across SE MI from about late morning through late afternoon followed by the mid level dry slot Friday night.
Heading into the holiday weekend, today's 12Z models are trending toward a farther south position on moisture wrapping around the mid level wave late Friday night while also shrinking the pattern from south to north during Saturday. Model moisture/QPF fields support entry level chance POPs in blended guidance both of which suggest nuisance coverage of showers until early afternoon when the mid level ridge between low pressure systems builds into the central Great Lakes. This gives weak high pressure a chance to close out the weekend with dry and warm weather Sunday.
MARINE
A cold front continues crossing the central Great Lakes this afternoon and evening with southwest wind around 10 to 20 knots preceding it. Winds will weaken tonight post-front, remaining predominantly southwest. Weak high pressure builds into the region Thursday promoting benign marine weather with light winds. An isolated pop-up shower or storm will be possible near the shoreline in the afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather continues Thursday night before winds organize out of the east on Friday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the Midwest. Its warm front will lift across the region during the day Friday, bringing scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. The cold front will follow with winds veering around to southwest by Saturday morning at around 10 to 20 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
AVIATION...
Frontal zone is noted on satellite extending SW-NE from KMGC to KMBS at TAF issuance. Ceiling observations within the frontal band range from MVFR to low VFR alongside isolated showers. Larger degree of solar insolation compared to upstream observations favors the optimistic VFR forecast locally until the front clears to our east by 00z. Decreasing cloud cover to follow overnight. Modest instability will struggle to generate deep convection this afternoon with dry subsident air working in aloft, so convective initiation will be limited. Still, there is a low (~20%) chance for a pulse- type thunderstorm to impact one of the Detroit terminal sites between 20z-00z. Southwest winds subside below 7 knots tonight with a 30-60 degree shift to the west-northwest post-front. Just some mid- high cloud lingers for daytime Thursday along with light west- southwest winds.
For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low (~20%) chance of a pulse- type thunderstorm to impact the airspace between 20z and 00z. Storm motion will be to the east-northeast at around 30 knots.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for intervals of 5000 foot or less ceilings before 00z.
Low tonight and Thursday.
* Low for a pulse thunderstorm between 20z and 00z.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A stray shower or rumble of thunder remain possible toward the Canadian and Ohio borders as a weak cold front exits eastward by this evening.
- Today's front ushers in a typical summer air mass for the July 4th holiday. Partly sunny sky helps lift temperature to highs in the mid to upper 80s with moderate humidity.
- Showers and thunderstorms spread back across Lower MI Friday as the next low pressure system sets up in the Midwest.
DISCUSSION
Observational trends continue to frame a rather benign passage of the cold front through SE MI during late afternoon. Surface analyses indicate a mostly diffuse pressure trough with minimal contrast in air mass across the boundary helping explain the lack of shower coverage so far today. Better mid and upper level forcing is also reflected in greater shower/storm coverage in radar composite now well to the north and east across Ontario and Quebec. There is some extra instability being created between mid and high cloud breaks which hourly mesoanalysis hints may help surface based CAPE approach 1000 J/kg in a narrow corridor toward the Canadian/Ohio border. It's therefore prudent to keep the forecast open to a stray shower or rumble of thunder until the front exits the area toward 00Z this evening.
The front stalls across the Ohio valley tonight and is followed by equally diffuse high pressure late tonight and Thursday. The high pressure weakness raises doubts regarding cloud evolution, however upstream satellite trends this afternoon do support a clearing trend other than patchy cirrus. A fog signal is also absent from model soundings despite surface dewpoint projected to remain above 60 during the night and Thursday morning. Other than a stray lake breeze shower, the front holds far enough south for a dry July 4th around the area while temperatures warm into a typical mid 80s range under partly sunny sky.
The next low pressure system scheduled to affect the Great Lakes has a respectable satellite presentation centered roughly over Montana this afternoon. Consensus of regional/global models brings the mid level circulation into the northern Plains Thursday and into the Midwest by Friday morning. The associated surface low then connects with the stalled Ohio valley front to set up a well organized warm front and low to mid level moisture transport into Lower MI. Model 850-700 mb theta-e and lapse rate projections show a mature moisture and instability axis centered over Lower MI by 12Z Friday which is alone capable of numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms but also boosted by seasonably strong mid and upper level dynamic forcing. The mid level circulation is positively tilted but still exhibiting more than adequate DCVA across the central Great Lakes under a SW to NE oriented upper level jet max.
Good model consensus on a strong occlusion process sweeps the rainfall pattern into and across SE MI from about late morning through late afternoon followed by the mid level dry slot Friday night.
Heading into the holiday weekend, today's 12Z models are trending toward a farther south position on moisture wrapping around the mid level wave late Friday night while also shrinking the pattern from south to north during Saturday. Model moisture/QPF fields support entry level chance POPs in blended guidance both of which suggest nuisance coverage of showers until early afternoon when the mid level ridge between low pressure systems builds into the central Great Lakes. This gives weak high pressure a chance to close out the weekend with dry and warm weather Sunday.
MARINE
A cold front continues crossing the central Great Lakes this afternoon and evening with southwest wind around 10 to 20 knots preceding it. Winds will weaken tonight post-front, remaining predominantly southwest. Weak high pressure builds into the region Thursday promoting benign marine weather with light winds. An isolated pop-up shower or storm will be possible near the shoreline in the afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather continues Thursday night before winds organize out of the east on Friday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the Midwest. Its warm front will lift across the region during the day Friday, bringing scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms. The cold front will follow with winds veering around to southwest by Saturday morning at around 10 to 20 knots.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
AVIATION...
Frontal zone is noted on satellite extending SW-NE from KMGC to KMBS at TAF issuance. Ceiling observations within the frontal band range from MVFR to low VFR alongside isolated showers. Larger degree of solar insolation compared to upstream observations favors the optimistic VFR forecast locally until the front clears to our east by 00z. Decreasing cloud cover to follow overnight. Modest instability will struggle to generate deep convection this afternoon with dry subsident air working in aloft, so convective initiation will be limited. Still, there is a low (~20%) chance for a pulse- type thunderstorm to impact one of the Detroit terminal sites between 20z-00z. Southwest winds subside below 7 knots tonight with a 30-60 degree shift to the west-northwest post-front. Just some mid- high cloud lingers for daytime Thursday along with light west- southwest winds.
For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low (~20%) chance of a pulse- type thunderstorm to impact the airspace between 20z and 00z. Storm motion will be to the east-northeast at around 30 knots.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for intervals of 5000 foot or less ceilings before 00z.
Low tonight and Thursday.
* Low for a pulse thunderstorm between 20z and 00z.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFNT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFNT
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFNT
Wind History graph: FNT
(wind in knots)
Detroit, MI,
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