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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cut Off, LA

July 3, 2024 5:27 AM CDT (10:27 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM
Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 5:25 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ550 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Nm- 241 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024

Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.

Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds, becoming southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - South winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southwest 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.

Friday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 4 seconds, becoming south 1 foot at 4 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 15 seconds. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Saturday - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 241 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024

Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
quiet conditions continue over the coastal waters through the week outside of Thunderstorm development. Winds will generally remain on the light side with low sea heights. Shower and Thunderstorm coverage will remain highest during the morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will occur with any Thunderstorms, and waterspouts will be possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cut Off, LA
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Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 031008 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 508 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Independence Day)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Yes finally there may be some relief but will it be enough to keep the area from getting these overly oppressive conditions, that is the biggest question mark and problem in the forecast. The other feature in the forecast that is causing a lot of undue anxiety for many is Beryl.

Today should be one last day with the potential of seeing dangerous heat index values up to 115. This is mainly for the parish along the MS River from southwest MS to BTR and then the parishes on the north along the immediate west and north sides of the tidal lakes.
Elsewhere with the exception of the coastal Parishes of SELA likely only get into advisory criteria and that may actually only be for a few hours at best as convection does have a much better chance of developing today. GOES16 TPW shows a deeper surge of moisture slowly moving into the region from the east-southeast. In addition there appears to be a weak inverted trough setting up southwest to northeast from Vermillion Bay to southeast MS. That along with deeper moisture moving in and daytime heating will likely be more than enough to get at least scattered convection to develop. Winds also could be unidirectional and out of the south to south-southwest across the southeastern half of the cwa and that may allow convection to develop earlier in the day as well. Looking at current radar and there is more coverage out there now in the Gulf and across coastal AL at 8z than we have seen for the past few days and more than what most of the CAMs were showing at this time as well.
That seems to suggest greater potential for convection and decent coverage today. That is the main thorn in the temperature and subsequent heat index forecast today. The northwestern half or more so third of the CWA may have a much more difficult time of seeing convection or it will at least be much later in the day. With highs in the mid to upper 90s expected and just stupid humidity lvls in the boundary layer it is quite likely that these areas and any area that stays rain free will have heat index values climb to or abv 113. A heat advisory was already out for most of the northern half of the CWA but given the concerns about the lack of convection or delayed timing in the northwest and around the tidal lakes we decided to upgrade those areas to an Excessive Heat Warning. We also went with a heat advisory for the New Orleans metro area and a few parishes just to the west and south of I-10. The biggest concern is it is already quite oppressive right now with many locations in this area already seeing heat index values in the mid 90s to lower 100s at 9z. Unless convection can move inland and/or develop in those areas before 16/17z it will be nothing for the heat index to climb to 108 to 110.

As for tomorrow, the 4th of July...heat may be a little more borderline for many locations but there are a few concerns that make it a little more likely that we will see solid heat advisory conditions and impacts would be even greater given that...it is Independence Day and many people will be outside celebrating.
Convection will likely be a little more difficult tomorrow however, there will still be scattered to possible numerous storms out there. The area with the best chance for rain tomorrow could very will be the northwest sections which have the lowest chance today.
That said convection would likely hold off till afternoon which would be more than enough time to warm up enough with heat index values not having much difficulty getting to 108 to 112. Across the north and south shores along with coastal MS rain may be a little more widely scattered and these area will likely warm up enough as well to allow for the heat index to approach 108-110. As mentioned earlier given Thursday being a holiday it is probably a good idea to get a little more awareness out there about the potential for another oppressive day.

Today and Thursday have been advertised as being the cooler days after Monday and Tuesday and given what occurred the last few days this is still expected. But just because it will be less oppressive doesn't mean it isn't oppressive. Morning lows are awful again this morning and likely to be the case tomorrow morning as well and that gives everyone a much higher jumping off point making it easier to get into those dangerous heat index values. That said the biggest caveat is convection. It will not take much to really keep things in check and that is likely the biggest fail mode with respect to actually seeing the very oppressive conditions. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The extended portion of the forecast really focuses on temps and rain potential but obviously everyone is paying attention to the forecast of Beryl and where it may eventually go. We will discuss Beryl more soon but first the weather conditions expected Friday and into the weekend. Overall things look to be a touch cooler relatively and that is more so heat index values and not necessarily the actual temperatures. Confidence is not that high given convection is the key determining factor with respect to temps and the heat but also what influences we possibly see from Beryl (hint at this time not expecting much outside of possibly marine/tidal impacts). No deviations made to the forecast from the latest NBM.

Friday through the weekend, the ridge that has been plaguing the area and providing the awful heat and lower rain chances will already be losing some of its influence over the area heading into Friday but by Friday it should continue to weaken and slide to the east ever so slowly. By this weekend the western side of the ridge will weaken if not erode some and this could lead to better rain chances with less suppressive and lower mid lvl temps. In addition LL temps will be lower than what we have seen with h925 temps of 27- 30C the last few days to closer to 24-26C over the weekend.

As for Beryl, lets begin with this, take a deep breath and continue to follow the latest forecast. NHC's latest forecast still has Beryl tracking to the WNW across the Yucatan Friday, into the Bay of Campeche and then approaching the north Mexican coast late Sunday.
Beryl is continuing to work under the influence of a large ridge which continues to stretch from north of the Greater Antilles west all the way across the TX and Mexico border. This is what will continue to drive Beryl to the west and west-northwest through at least early Saturday. Many of you have obviously seen at times different solutions or even ensemble forecast that show Beryl beginning to turn and even a hard turn to the northwest and even north-northwest Saturday and Sunday. Some even show Beryl getting into the far northwestern Gulf and this is a highly unlikely solution. Not impossible but very unlikely.

Why the turn, this is due to the west side of the ridge beginning to erode (as we mentioned in the previous paragraph). A disturbance currently coming onshore over the PAC northwest will drop southeast across the northern Plains and into the Upper and Mid MS Valley Friday. As that happens the western side of the ridge erodes and could allow Beryl to slow down and turn to the NW but a lot will depend on how far north Beryl can get over the next 48 hours and what the structure is after it exits the Yucatan and emerges into the Gulf. Even if Beryl is a little farther north than the current forecast, it will likely not start to make any noticeable turn till late Saturday and by then Beryl will probably be halfway across the Bay of Campeche by then. How much of the ridge erodes will also be a major factor. Looking at some of the global models the jet core associated with the s/w will be downstream of the s/w axis by late Friday and that should keep it from digging much more and then how much of the ridge really erodes. Even if the ridge erodes as anticipated or even slightly more Beryl will very likely be too far west to have any direct impacts for our area. The most likely scenario for SELA and coastal MS is indirect impacts as there could be an increase in onshore flow and possibly a swell emanating out of the southeast. This could bring some tidal concerns to the area this weekend and into early next week. /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Mostly VFR conditions currently however a few bounces into MVFR due to low clouds leading to cigs around 2100-2500 ft has been occurring early this morning. These low clouds likely won't cause too many problems with most terminals remaining in VFR status.
That is the main impact outside of convection which could begin much earlier today especially along the coast around GPT and HUM.
Terminals at ASD/MSY/NEW could also see convection impact them later this morning possibly as early as 16z but more likely around 17/18z. HDC/BTR/MCB likely start to see impacts from convection during the afternoon hours. /CAB/


MARINE
Issued at 456 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

At this time benign marine conditions expected in the next 7 days. Generally, moderate (10-15kts) and southerly winds expected.
Convection is already impacting the coastal waters this morning and should continue to do so through the morning before mostly moving inland around midday and through the afternoon. Very high moisture content in the low levels along with unstable conditions and a weak inverted trough across the coast could lead to a better chance of waterspouts this morning.

We did say "At this time" in the first sentence as there is a very small chance that some indirect impacts could occur from Beryl this weekend and possibly into Monday. A lot will depend on how strong Beryl is and how far north it is when it departs the Yucatan Friday night/Saturday. This could provide a swell out of the southeast and maybe lead to slightly strong southeast/east- southeast winds late this weekend. It along with the area approaching spring tide could also lead to some very minor coastal flooding concerns. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 94 75 92 74 / 60 30 70 10 BTR 96 80 95 78 / 60 20 80 0 ASD 92 78 94 78 / 80 30 80 10 MSY 92 80 92 80 / 80 30 80 10 GPT 90 79 91 78 / 70 30 70 10 PQL 93 78 94 77 / 70 30 60 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034-035-046>048-080-082>086.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ036-037-039-056>058-060-064-071-076>079-081-087-089.

GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ069>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for West Bank 1, Bayou Gauche, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGAO SOUTH LAFOURCHE LEONARD MILLER JR,LA 7 sm12 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy79°F75°F89%29.99
KHUM HOUMATERREBONNE,LA 17 sm12 mincalm7 smClear81°F79°F94%29.99


Tide / Current for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
   
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Manilla
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Wed -- 03:37 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:03 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:23 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:09 PM CDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
-0.2
1
am
-0.1
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.3
4
am
0.5
5
am
0.7
6
am
0.9
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.5
11
am
1.4
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
1.1
3
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0.9
4
pm
0.7
5
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0.4
6
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0.2
7
pm
0
8
pm
-0.1
9
pm
-0.3
10
pm
-0.3
11
pm
-0.4


Tide / Current for Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana
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Cocodrie
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Wed -- 03:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:19 PM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cocodrie, Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.3
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.7
4
am
0.9
5
am
1.1
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.3
8
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1.4
9
am
1.5
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.4
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
0.7
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
-0
7
pm
-0.2
8
pm
-0.4
9
pm
-0.4
10
pm
-0.4
11
pm
-0.3


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley   
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New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA,




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