Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pass Christian, MS
June 18, 2024 9:30 AM CDT (14:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 5:05 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 421 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 am cdt this morning - .
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning - .
Today - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Showers likely this morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 4 to 5 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 421 Am Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range over much of the waters today, in response to a broad area of low pressure in the bay of campeche. These winds are expected to persist through the middle of the week. Some gusts to near gale-force will be possible, primarily west of the mouth of the mississippi river. Seas will also build in response to the strengthening winds with seas of up to 12 feet expected in the offshore waters today and Wednesday. A gradual decrease in wind speeds and seas is expected on Thursday and Friday as the low in the bay of campeche moves into mexico and weakens.
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range over much of the waters today, in response to a broad area of low pressure in the bay of campeche. These winds are expected to persist through the middle of the week. Some gusts to near gale-force will be possible, primarily west of the mouth of the mississippi river. Seas will also build in response to the strengthening winds with seas of up to 12 feet expected in the offshore waters today and Wednesday. A gradual decrease in wind speeds and seas is expected on Thursday and Friday as the low in the bay of campeche moves into mexico and weakens.
Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 181147 AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Upper ridging centered over the Carolinas this morning with a trough over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Still have the low over the Bay of Campeche that has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Still have a fairly significant surface pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the circulation over the Bay of Campeche, although winds haven't been quite as strong as anticipated to this point. We continue to be in a very moist airmass with precipitable water values near or above 2.10 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for mid June and approaching the daily maxima. Similar to last night, an impulse is noted on water vapor imagery moving northward through the lower Mississippi River Valley that took most of the earlier rain with it. However, we can see on radar, indications of the next impulse moving into the southern portion of our coastal waters at 3 AM CDT. Temperatures at that time were mainly ranging from the mid 70s to around 80.
The upper ridge to the east may nudge the cyclonic flow with the system to our southwest a bit further westward over the next 36 hours. That may not be particularly noticeable in forecast precipitable water values today, as they remain in excess of 2 inches, but we do expect a noticeable drying across at least the east half of the area on Wednesday, when precipitable water values fall to about 1.7 inches. Still expect pretty extensive coverage of showers and a few storms today, especially once we get some heating. Most areas should see less than an inch of rain today, but highly efficient rainfall rates could produce a brief problem or two. Areal coverage and rainfall amounts on Wednesday should be somewhat less than today, and shifted westward.
High temperatures today, even with the occasional showers and storms, should at least get into the 85 to 90 range, and probably a degree or two higher on Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The ridging off to our northeast appears to strengthen a bit, and retrograde westward over the next few days. This suppresses the circulation to the southwest enough to force it into Mexico. It also serves to dry our airmass somewhat, especially north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. In those areas, we may not see much in the way of rain for at least Thursday through much of the weekend.
South of there, moisture levels may remain high enough, precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8 range, to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms, especially along lake/sea breeze boundaries. NBM PoPs may be a bit overdone over the weekend, but current forecast is in agreement with neighboring offices. As ridging continues to push westward, moisture levels will again be on the upswing early next week with a resulting increase in areal coverage of convection.
With the somewhat drier airmass pushing into the area, high temperatures will return to the lower and middle 90s going into the weekend. dew points may settle a little lower, but we may get close to heat advisory criteria over the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
All forecast terminals currently VFR, however, there are some non-forecast terminals reporting IFR ceilings. Have noted on radar an increase in areal coverage of SHRA in the nearshore waters over about the last 45 minutes. As we get a little surface heating...and it won't take long...MVFR ceilings will become prevalent across most or all terminals. Areal coverage of SHRA will continue to increase, and by 15z or 16z, the threat for TSRA will increase, with amendments for direct impacts possible. Any direct impacts will likely produce IFR or lower visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Threat of TSRA will diminish, if not end entirely, prior to 00z Wednesday. Beyond 00z, VFR conditions should be the rule for most of the night, but could see at least a few MVFR to IFR ceilings toward sunrise Wednesday. Probably will not see as much development of SHRA/TSRA Wednesday morning as compared to yesterday or this morning.
Coastal terminals could see wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots during at least the late morning and afternoon hours today, before relaxing a bit around sunset. A more general increase in wind speeds is expected on Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat.
MARINE
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Over the last 24 hours, winds haven't been quite as strong across the coastal waters as earlier anticipated, mainly in the 20 to 25 knot range. With PTC One not expected to significantly strengthen, confidence in gale conditions occurring is not strong enough at this time to justify gale watches/warnings. Have coordinated with WFO LCH to hold with strongly worded Small Craft Conditions at this time. Can't entirely rule out the eventual need for gales, especially late tonight or tomorrow. Hazardous conditions are expected over much of the open waters for the next several days, however, and Advisories may need to be extended beyond the current expiration over some or most of the waters. No changes to Coastal Flood Products at this time, as current forecast levels continue to be 1-2 feet above normal, which fits advisory criteria.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 85 71 90 71 / 50 10 20 0 BTR 87 76 92 77 / 70 20 40 0 ASD 88 76 90 75 / 70 10 60 10 MSY 88 81 90 81 / 70 20 70 20 GPT 88 77 90 77 / 60 20 50 20 PQL 92 75 93 74 / 40 10 30 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ066>070- 076-078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 647 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Upper ridging centered over the Carolinas this morning with a trough over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Still have the low over the Bay of Campeche that has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Still have a fairly significant surface pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the circulation over the Bay of Campeche, although winds haven't been quite as strong as anticipated to this point. We continue to be in a very moist airmass with precipitable water values near or above 2.10 inches, which is above the 90th percentile for mid June and approaching the daily maxima. Similar to last night, an impulse is noted on water vapor imagery moving northward through the lower Mississippi River Valley that took most of the earlier rain with it. However, we can see on radar, indications of the next impulse moving into the southern portion of our coastal waters at 3 AM CDT. Temperatures at that time were mainly ranging from the mid 70s to around 80.
The upper ridge to the east may nudge the cyclonic flow with the system to our southwest a bit further westward over the next 36 hours. That may not be particularly noticeable in forecast precipitable water values today, as they remain in excess of 2 inches, but we do expect a noticeable drying across at least the east half of the area on Wednesday, when precipitable water values fall to about 1.7 inches. Still expect pretty extensive coverage of showers and a few storms today, especially once we get some heating. Most areas should see less than an inch of rain today, but highly efficient rainfall rates could produce a brief problem or two. Areal coverage and rainfall amounts on Wednesday should be somewhat less than today, and shifted westward.
High temperatures today, even with the occasional showers and storms, should at least get into the 85 to 90 range, and probably a degree or two higher on Wednesday.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The ridging off to our northeast appears to strengthen a bit, and retrograde westward over the next few days. This suppresses the circulation to the southwest enough to force it into Mexico. It also serves to dry our airmass somewhat, especially north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. In those areas, we may not see much in the way of rain for at least Thursday through much of the weekend.
South of there, moisture levels may remain high enough, precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8 range, to support isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms, especially along lake/sea breeze boundaries. NBM PoPs may be a bit overdone over the weekend, but current forecast is in agreement with neighboring offices. As ridging continues to push westward, moisture levels will again be on the upswing early next week with a resulting increase in areal coverage of convection.
With the somewhat drier airmass pushing into the area, high temperatures will return to the lower and middle 90s going into the weekend. dew points may settle a little lower, but we may get close to heat advisory criteria over the weekend.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
All forecast terminals currently VFR, however, there are some non-forecast terminals reporting IFR ceilings. Have noted on radar an increase in areal coverage of SHRA in the nearshore waters over about the last 45 minutes. As we get a little surface heating...and it won't take long...MVFR ceilings will become prevalent across most or all terminals. Areal coverage of SHRA will continue to increase, and by 15z or 16z, the threat for TSRA will increase, with amendments for direct impacts possible. Any direct impacts will likely produce IFR or lower visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Threat of TSRA will diminish, if not end entirely, prior to 00z Wednesday. Beyond 00z, VFR conditions should be the rule for most of the night, but could see at least a few MVFR to IFR ceilings toward sunrise Wednesday. Probably will not see as much development of SHRA/TSRA Wednesday morning as compared to yesterday or this morning.
Coastal terminals could see wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots during at least the late morning and afternoon hours today, before relaxing a bit around sunset. A more general increase in wind speeds is expected on Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat.
MARINE
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Over the last 24 hours, winds haven't been quite as strong across the coastal waters as earlier anticipated, mainly in the 20 to 25 knot range. With PTC One not expected to significantly strengthen, confidence in gale conditions occurring is not strong enough at this time to justify gale watches/warnings. Have coordinated with WFO LCH to hold with strongly worded Small Craft Conditions at this time. Can't entirely rule out the eventual need for gales, especially late tonight or tomorrow. Hazardous conditions are expected over much of the open waters for the next several days, however, and Advisories may need to be extended beyond the current expiration over some or most of the waters. No changes to Coastal Flood Products at this time, as current forecast levels continue to be 1-2 feet above normal, which fits advisory criteria.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 85 71 90 71 / 50 10 20 0 BTR 87 76 92 77 / 70 20 40 0 ASD 88 76 90 75 / 70 10 60 10 MSY 88 81 90 81 / 70 20 70 20 GPT 88 77 90 77 / 60 20 50 20 PQL 92 75 93 74 / 40 10 30 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ066>070- 076-078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS | 14 mi | 43 min | E 14G | 83°F | 82°F | 29.91 | ||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 31 mi | 43 min | 85°F | |||||
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 32 mi | 43 min | NE 17G | 78°F | 29.94 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 38 mi | 106 min | E 18 | 77°F | 29.98 | 70°F | ||
| SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA | 38 mi | 43 min | E 18G | 83°F | 77°F | 29.92 |
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(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cat Island, Mississippi, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ship Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet
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