Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 1:53 AM   Moonset 2:26 PM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 011958 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 358 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers will return to the area late tonight into Sunday with crossing low pressure. Above normal temperature and low probability, low coverage showers and thunderstorms are favored thereafter until the next system arrives mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through this evening before rain moves in from the west late tonight.
- Warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s are expected this afternoon.
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A beautiful first day of Meteorological Summer is underway as the upper ridge and surface high pressure continue to slowly shift east keeping dry weather in the forecast at least through the evening hours. Despite broken cirrus on satellite, plentiful sunshine is expected into the evening before increasing cloud cover later this afternoon and tonight. Despite increasing cloud cover, warm advection will boost afternoon temperatures to just above normal, pushing highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mostly light showers will arrive late tonight and Sunday morning ahead of the weakening shortwave. Recent model trends have slowed onset of showers slightly, putting onset of rain in the eastern Ohio zones likely after midnight and into the Pittsburgh metro near sunrise Sunday. Stable overnight conditions and marginal shear should preclude lightning development.

Warm advection, increasing moisture, and overcast conditions will keep area temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than last night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and low probability thunder expected Sunday before tapering off during the evening.

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The weakening shortwave trough will cross the region on Sunday, eventually pushing an associated surface cold front through by Sunday evening. Showers will progress across eastern Ohio during the early morning hours, then into and across western PA during the morning and afternoon hours. Excessive cloud cover should limit instability. Coincident with weak shear, this will limit thunder potential and minimize storm strength/severe potential. The lack of strong surface forcing and diminished upper support will also lead to more scattered coverage. Though the occasional brief heavy downpour remains possible, these factors will keep the flooding threat minimal, and some locations may see little to no rain.

Dry weather should return by Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating and exiting of the shortwave/weak front. Any lingering overnight showers will be confined to upslope Laurel Highland zones. The lack of notable dry advection behind the system could make fog a potential overnight impact, depending on the degree/quickness of cloud clearing.

Rain and overcast conditions should keep Sunday temperatures on the cool side, with most of the area in the upper 60s/lower 70s during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability/low coverage showers and thunderstorms with above normal temperature Monday and Tuesday.
- Increasing precipitation chances accompany a mid to late week low pressure system that will cause falling temperature.

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Subtle ridging stretching from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River Valley Monday is likely to promote dry weather and slightly above average temperature. The probability for showers and thunderstorms should be low and generally confined to the higher terrain where better moisture and terrain convergence may lead to an isolated afternoon storm.
Little change in the broad synoptic flow is expected for Tuesday, which will promote above-normal temperature and dry weather. However, it is becoming more likely that rain chances with the next system will begin as early as Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Weather for the remainder of the week will likely be under the influence of a large, elongated stacked low pressure system meandering across Manitoba and Ontario into the Great Lakes.
Ensemble means favor increasing large scale ascent/forcing for our region on Wednesday, promoting more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday, likely most focused along/ahead of an associated cold front crossing on Thursday.

Lingering low pressure across the Great Lakes/Ontario/Quebec into the weekend will likely promote periodic showers and thunderstorms with a downward trend in temperature.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR will continue as into the evening as high pressure slowly edges east of our region. Mid and upper clouds will dominate through then evening hours, slowly lowering and thickening with time.

An approaching, weakening shortwave trough will push some light rain showers into eastern Ohio after 06Z, with coverage slowly expanding across the Upper Ohio Valley through the morning. NBM probabilities of MVFR ceilings are 60-80% areawide after 12Z, and have included that thinking in the TAFs. Best chance of dropping to IFR is at ZZV according to the same blend, with lesser chance to the east. This seems reasonable, as daytime mixing may prevent ceilings that low later in the morning.

Wind will remain light through the TAF period, with a slow veer from southeast to southwest with time.


Outlook
Restrictions and showers/possible thunderstorms continue into Sunday evening as the shortwave crosses. MVFR to IFR fog or stratus is possible Sunday night with low level moisture in place. VFR returns later Monday and Tuesday under high pressure, before a restriction and shower/thunderstorm potential returns with a Wednesday cold front.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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