Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Hills, MT
July 3, 2024 3:35 AM MDT (09:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:38 AM Sunset 9:26 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 7:04 PM |
Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTFX 030604 AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1159 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Northern Rockies through Thursday afternoon, with the highest concentrations of showers and storms occurring on Wednesday.
These showers and storms will be relatively small in nature, with only brief periods of rain are expected. None-the-less, burst of moderate to at times heavy rain will be possible, especially through this evening and then again on Wednesday.
UPDATE
Updated forecast is out. Only change this evening was to adjust pops towards current trends. Most of the showers have exited Southwest MT, thus reduced Pops in that area. Otherwise scattered showers/thunderstorms are continuing to move from northwest to southeast through North Central MT. Thus continued Pops until at least Midnight before starting to diminish them. Temperatures look on track. Brusda
AVIATION
03/06Z TAF Period
Unsettled weather conditions can be expected for many areas along/north of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman through this period.
Expect the shower and thunderstorm activity to be most widespread between 16z Wed and 01z Thu. Thunderstorms will be intermittent, but around. The northwest flow aloft will continue into Thursday, with scattered showers/thunderstorms continuing. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times through the period. Brusda
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 553 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
Rest of today through Wednesday...moist and unstable northwest flow aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of North Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the period. The exception to this is southwest of a line from West Yellowstone, to Dillon, to Chief Joseph Pass where isolated showers and storms are generally only expected. Areal coverage/footprint of individual showers and storms will be relatively small throughout the timeframe; however, Wednesday will have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. While thunderstorms throughout the period are not expected to be severe, a few stronger storms can't be ruled, especially through this evening when instability will be the greatest. These stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds of between 40-50 mph, especially beneath collapsing cores, and small hail which could accumulate and lead to road hazards. While PWATs are not overly impressive during the period and the aforementioned footprints of the showers/storms will be relative small, slow storm motions of between 15-25 mph could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas, especially where training of showers/storms occurs. High temperatures on Wednesday will be well below normal across the CWA, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to low 70s. - Moldan
4th of July...The upper level ridge will try to move east of the CWA today. However, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest during the morning/afternoon hours. Thus there will be a small chance for a light shower through late afternoon, the North Central MT having the highest chances. By Thursday evening, enough dry air should work in from the west, that most dry conditions are expected for Thursday evening across the CWA
Friday through Tuesday...A summer upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Rockies during this period.
The exact day in which the ridge builds seems to flop a bit from day to day, but overall it looks like the ridge will start to build in by next Mon/Tue. This will result in mostly dry conditions developing over the weekend and continuing into early next week.
Additionally, afternoon temperatures will be on the rise, with most areas averaging afternoon highs close to 10 degrees above normal by next Mon/Tue. Overall, do expect a rather lengthy period of very warm to hot temperatures to start to develop by early next week.
Some long range forecast prog afternoon temperatures near/above 100 degrees in many areas for several days by later next week. Even if these progs are 10 degrees to warm, it is still looking rather warm/mostly dry for most days next week. Thus, excessive heat and fire weather statements might be needed by the later portions of next week as fuels continue to dry out. Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 67 48 74 / 40 80 40 20 CTB 51 65 46 73 / 50 80 40 10 HLN 50 74 51 79 / 10 60 40 10 BZN 46 71 44 73 / 20 50 40 10 WYS 37 65 33 66 / 40 50 40 10 DLN 41 69 39 72 / 10 20 10 0 HVR 53 70 51 75 / 60 80 40 30 LWT 46 65 46 68 / 40 80 40 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1159 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aviation Section Updated
SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Northern Rockies through Thursday afternoon, with the highest concentrations of showers and storms occurring on Wednesday.
These showers and storms will be relatively small in nature, with only brief periods of rain are expected. None-the-less, burst of moderate to at times heavy rain will be possible, especially through this evening and then again on Wednesday.
UPDATE
Updated forecast is out. Only change this evening was to adjust pops towards current trends. Most of the showers have exited Southwest MT, thus reduced Pops in that area. Otherwise scattered showers/thunderstorms are continuing to move from northwest to southeast through North Central MT. Thus continued Pops until at least Midnight before starting to diminish them. Temperatures look on track. Brusda
AVIATION
03/06Z TAF Period
Unsettled weather conditions can be expected for many areas along/north of I-90 from Butte to Bozeman through this period.
Expect the shower and thunderstorm activity to be most widespread between 16z Wed and 01z Thu. Thunderstorms will be intermittent, but around. The northwest flow aloft will continue into Thursday, with scattered showers/thunderstorms continuing. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times through the period. Brusda
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 553 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
Rest of today through Wednesday...moist and unstable northwest flow aloft will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of North Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the period. The exception to this is southwest of a line from West Yellowstone, to Dillon, to Chief Joseph Pass where isolated showers and storms are generally only expected. Areal coverage/footprint of individual showers and storms will be relatively small throughout the timeframe; however, Wednesday will have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. While thunderstorms throughout the period are not expected to be severe, a few stronger storms can't be ruled, especially through this evening when instability will be the greatest. These stronger storms would be capable of producing gusty winds of between 40-50 mph, especially beneath collapsing cores, and small hail which could accumulate and lead to road hazards. While PWATs are not overly impressive during the period and the aforementioned footprints of the showers/storms will be relative small, slow storm motions of between 15-25 mph could lead to some ponding of water in poor drainage areas, especially where training of showers/storms occurs. High temperatures on Wednesday will be well below normal across the CWA, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to low 70s. - Moldan
4th of July...The upper level ridge will try to move east of the CWA today. However, the flow aloft will be out of the northwest during the morning/afternoon hours. Thus there will be a small chance for a light shower through late afternoon, the North Central MT having the highest chances. By Thursday evening, enough dry air should work in from the west, that most dry conditions are expected for Thursday evening across the CWA
Friday through Tuesday...A summer upper level ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the northern Rockies during this period.
The exact day in which the ridge builds seems to flop a bit from day to day, but overall it looks like the ridge will start to build in by next Mon/Tue. This will result in mostly dry conditions developing over the weekend and continuing into early next week.
Additionally, afternoon temperatures will be on the rise, with most areas averaging afternoon highs close to 10 degrees above normal by next Mon/Tue. Overall, do expect a rather lengthy period of very warm to hot temperatures to start to develop by early next week.
Some long range forecast prog afternoon temperatures near/above 100 degrees in many areas for several days by later next week. Even if these progs are 10 degrees to warm, it is still looking rather warm/mostly dry for most days next week. Thus, excessive heat and fire weather statements might be needed by the later portions of next week as fuels continue to dry out. Brusda
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 67 48 74 / 40 80 40 20 CTB 51 65 46 73 / 50 80 40 10 HLN 50 74 51 79 / 10 60 40 10 BZN 46 71 44 73 / 20 50 40 10 WYS 37 65 33 66 / 40 50 40 10 DLN 41 69 39 72 / 10 20 10 0 HVR 53 70 51 75 / 60 80 40 30 LWT 46 65 46 68 / 40 80 40 40
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KHLN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHLN
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KHLN
Wind History graph: HLN
(wind in knots)
Great Falls, MT,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE