Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM   Moonset 3:52 PM

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PZZ110 Grays Harbor Bar- 548 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
combined seas 6 to 8 ft through Sunday night, building to around 10 ft Monday. Bar conditions moderate, becoming rough. Maximum ebb currents will occur around 200 pm Sunday, 230 am Monday, and 300 pm Monday. The Monday morning ebb will be strong.

PZZ100 548 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the northern and central washington coastal and inland waters - A strong front will approach the waters today and move onshore by early Monday morning. Another front is expected to arrive on Tuesday. High pressure will then build back into the coastal waters on Wednesday and remain late this week.

FXUS66 KPQR 030455 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 954 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Updated aviation discussion...

SYNOPSIS
A late season atmospheric river continues to push inland this afternoon producing ample rain over the region. Some localized flooding possible, especially over the Coastal areas and Cascades. Rain will taper through Tuesday but another weak front arrives on Wednesday morning. Strong high pressure builds through the remainder of the week which will increase chances for very warm temperatures.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...Today has not necessarily worked out exactly as forecast, but overall the impacts will remain similar. The late season atmospheric river has been slow to transition inland this morning. By 1100 this storm was already expected to be producing heavy rainfall.
However, the heaviest rains have just started falling around 1300. They are robust though with over a half inch of rain falling over the Coast Range within the last 3 hours. Radar and satellite do not show a break in the rain anytime soon though so expecting those accumulation amounts to continuously rise. With these precipitation rates and amounts, cannot rule out localized river flooding or urban ponding. A hydrological outlook as been issued so please turn to that for more details. With the rain on going what will end up happening over the next 24 hours? Lets start that analysis by looking aloft.

At 250 mb (~35,000 ft) the jet stream the stronger winds are beginning to move over the region which is supporting the rain thus far. As we move into Monday, the strongest winds (the jet streak) will pass over northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. There, winds are around 110 kt and nearly zonal.
Shifting to the mid-elevations (500 mb), this jet is coupled with west to northwesterly winds around 110 kt as well. As we reach the surface, winds become more south to southwesterly around the trough that sits over the northeast Pacific. With the westerly flow aloft, the Coast Range and Cascades are orographically lifting the system and thus enhancing precipitation in those areas. The southerly winds are making their mark though as wind gusts are exceeding 20 kt in most places, with the coast seeing the highest winds with peak gusts around 40 kt.

Behind this system temperatures will cool aloft, but not necessarily significantly enough to increase chances for thunderstorms. 850 mb temperatures only lower to around 0 deg C (32 F) but we usually are looking for much cooler conditions for higher thunderstorm potential. The NBM has suggested around a 15% chance in southwest Washington, but with a fully saturated atmosphere and really no forcing mechanism, those chances are likely lower. On Monday night a shortwave trough and a weak warm front pushes inland once again. Will see another round of stratiform rain but it will quickly move and will not be impactful. However if the atmospheric river from today overperforms, then the added precipitation could have an impact on more triggery and full rivers. High resolution models are showing quite the precipitation accumulation spread. In Portland, the 6 hour rainfall totals, ending at 0400, range from 0.05-0.11 inch, with the 90th percentile at 0.15 inch. In Tillamook, the range is around 0.08-0.19 inch with the 90th percentile around 0.25 inch. As you get into the Cascades, the Gifford Pinchot Natl Forest could see rainfall totals as high as 0.80 inch. Ultimately, this system will once again be orographically driven.

Rain will ease through the day on Tuesday with a few lingering showers into the afternoon. Wednesday starts the first day of the drying and warming conditions that will round out the remainder of the week. -Muessle

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...If you enjoy warm, clear, and dry weather, then the later half of the week is perfect for you. We are starting off meteorological summer out right with a broad ridge of high pressure which encompasses most of the West.
This high pressure system is turning out to be robust with high confidence and consensus in the ensembles. Sensible weather wise, Wednesday will be dry and clear but near normal for high temperatures. Through the week into Saturday upper levels temperatures too will rise. 850 mb temperatures during this time frame will rise to around 20 degrees C by Saturday. This will create a deep layer of warm air with little to no reprieve.

Looking at high temperatures, values range from the mid 60s along the coast to the mid 70s inland. Upper Hood River Valley and western Columbia River Gorge will trend warmer within the forecast area due to the proximity to a bulk of the warm air and the very slight easterly downslope flow. This will be the trend over the next several days.

As we transition into Thursday and Friday, the ridge will only intensify and temperatures will compound on one another; each day will be warmer than the previous. The models have finally started to come together on this range as it once was a 20 degree spread, and now is a 10 degree spread between the 25-75th percentile. High temperatures could rise to near 90 inland but heightened concerns occur with the overnight temperatures. Specifically pointing to the Upper Hood River Valley and the Columbia River Gorge near Carson, models are showing around a 35% chance that low overnight temperatures could be greater than 70 degrees F early Saturday morning.
Combine that with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, overnight recovery could be less favorable. There still remains some level of uncertainty though so be sure to continue to watch the forecast for more information on the heat risk late in the week. -Muessle



AVIATION
As of 0430z Mon, widespread rain continues across the region with a mix of IFR/MVFR cigs along the coast and MVFR/VFR cigs inland. As the cold front pushes through around 09-12z Mon, expect southwesterly winds to pick up with gusts to 25-30 kt along the coast and 20-25 kt inland. Post-frontal showers with a mix of high- end MVFR/low-end VFR cigs will prevail throughout the day tomorrow (Monday) across all terminals. Breezy southwesterly winds will continue tomorrow, but will slightly ease throughout the day. Not expecting much impact to visibility tomorrow as shower activity is forecast to be light.

PDX AND APPROACHES...After 10-12z Mon, expect a post-frontal environment with light showers and intermittent MVFR/VFR cigs.
Winds will be southwesterly 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt.
-Alviz

MARINE
A strong storm system, will continue to slowly move eastward through the overnight hours. Current buoy and land based observations are showing south/southwesterly gusts up to 40 kt.
Therefore, have extended the current Gale Warnings out through the early evening. Afterwards, have a Small Craft Advisory for all waters through Monday night for winds and/or seas. Will extend the current Small Craft Advisory for the Columbia River Bar through Monday night as well. Winds will subside by Monday night and become northerly. Currently, seas around 8-10 ft. Expect seas to build towards 10-12 ft on Monday.

Winds will remain northerly, but will likely increase towards Small Craft conditions by the middle of the week. Seas will also continue building through the middle of the week towards 12-14 ft as another westerly swell enter the waters. /42

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273.

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Toke Point
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Sun -- 03:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:21 AM PDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:23 AM PDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:19 PM PDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:03 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM PDT     8.84 feet High Tide
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Toke Point, Willapa Bay, Washington (3), Tide feet

Grays Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 01:39 AM PDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:06 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:08 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:20 AM PDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:47 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:55 PM PDT     -2.24 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:37 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 PM PDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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Grays Harbor Entrance, Washington Current, knots

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