Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 10:06 AM

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GMZ052 Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key 20 To 60 Nm Out- 423 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Today - Southwest to west winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tonight - Southwest to west winds near 10 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: west to northwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Thursday - South to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Thursday night - Southeast to south winds near 5 knots. SEa around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Friday - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Friday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Saturday through Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 423 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Synopsis - A weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western atlantic across the straits of florida today through Thursday morning, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the keys waters. Breezes may become variable at times during this period. The ridge will shift back northward Thursday afternoon through Friday, allowing light southeast breezes to resume. Building high pressure over the western atlantic during the weekend will bring gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the keys waters.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 24 - .
65 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 28 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 16 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 11 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 17 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 260607 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 207 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A rather typical summertime weather pattern will continue across South Florida through Thursday with the region sitting under weak mid-level troughing. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be around each day, fueled by diurnal heating and deep moisture pooled over the area. With the low-level winds being weak out of the W-SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late morning/early afternoon, then moving over the interior/East Coast metro areas. A few storms could become strong, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Slow storm motions may result in localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas, or locations hit with multiple rounds of storms.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall, the typical summertime pattern will continue through most of the long term period with warm temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will be a gradual transition at the synoptic scale from Friday through the weekend as weak mid-level troughing over the Florida Peninsula finally gets kicked out by extensive mid-level ridging building over the Gulf states.
Throughout this time period, mesoscale dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation, with near-normal PWAT values supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. With steady easterly flow at the surface, the convection regime will generally follow isolated showers or storms over the East Coast Metro in the morning, then increasing in coverage and shifting over the interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early evening.
Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor given the weak flow pattern.

One factor in the forecast that could lead to less convective activity is the potential for the first notable Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume to move over South Florida over the weekend into early next week. This would be pretty typical for late June or early July in our area, but the only impact aside from slightly hazy skies would be the drier air dampening daytime convection a bit.

Temperatures for the long term period will remain near to just above our seasonal averages, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and peak heat indices in the triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR to start the 06Z TAF period with light and variable winds.
Winds will become W/SW 5-10 kts after 16Z with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected which may result in brief flight restrictions. Winds will become light and variable again this evening after 00Z.

MARINE
Issued at 206 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Gentle southwesterly winds will remain in place across the local waters for most of the week, resulting in generally benign conditions. Both Atlantic and Gulf seas will be quite smooth at generally 1 foot or less. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could result in locally higher winds and seas each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 91 77 92 78 / 60 30 60 20 West Kendall 91 75 92 76 / 60 30 50 10 Opa-Locka 91 76 93 78 / 70 30 60 20 Homestead 91 76 91 78 / 60 30 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 78 / 70 30 60 20 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 91 78 / 70 30 60 20 Pembroke Pines 92 78 94 79 / 70 30 60 20 West Palm Beach 90 76 92 76 / 70 30 60 20 Boca Raton 91 76 92 77 / 70 30 60 20 Naples 89 78 90 79 / 50 20 50 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Carysfort Reef
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:02 PM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carysfort Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:15 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:34 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

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