Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 12:23 AM   Moonset 1:12 PM

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GMZ052 Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas Out 20 Nm- Straits Of Florida From Ocean Reef To Craig Key 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To South Of Halfmoon Shoal 20 To 60 Nm Out- Straits Of Florida From Halfmoon Shoal To 20 Nm West Of Dry Tortugas 20 To 60 Nm Out- 1031 Am Edt Sat Jun 29 2024
This afternoon - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 4 feet at 4 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.Tonight - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas subsiding to around 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds near 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1031 Am Edt Sat Jun 29 2024
Synopsis - Breezes will freshen today as the gradient between a disturbance in the southwestern gulf and a north atlantic ridge tightens briefly. As the disturbance moves westward into central america, the gradient will relax, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through Wednesday. Tropical storm beryl is forecast to move south of cuba starting Wednesday night. Breezes across the florida keys will freshen as the system transits westward well south of our area.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of june 24 - .
65 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 28 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 16 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 11 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 11 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 17 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 11 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 291632 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1232 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mid level ridging will remain in place for the rest of this afternoon across the Florida Peninsula while the surface ridge axis of an area of high pressure centered in the Western Atlantic remains close to the region. This has allowed for a slight uptick in the easterly wind flow this afternoon across the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop mainly over the interior and west coast where the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from ongoing thunderstorms interact with each other. Heading into this evening, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior sections will dissipate due to loss of daytime heating. During the overnight hours, a slight weakness in the mid level ridge will develop as a weak mid level vorticity impulse pushes towards Central and Southern Florida from the Atlantic. This may provide support for some additional shower and thunderstorm activity to develop over the local waters as well as the east coast metro areas heading towards the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas.

Heading into Sunday, the weak mid level impulse will slowly push across South Florida as the day progresses. This mid level energy may provide a bit more lift and support through the day which could enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage as Sunday progresses. As the sea breezes develop, chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase across the east coast metro areas as the morning progresses. With the weak easterly wind flow in place, these storms will gradually push towards and favor the interior and west coast as the afternoon progresses. While strong thunderstorm development will still remain rather limited, it cannot be entirely ruled out especially over the interior and western sections in the afternoon as the mid level impulse moves over the region during peak diurnal heating. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. As the steering flow will continue to remain light, storms will continue to be slow moving. The slow storm motion combined with the potential for heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding especially across the metro areas. High temperatures on Sunday will generally range from the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across the interior and west coast.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The synoptic pattern of predominantly easterly flow is expected to continue into early next week, with daytime heating and sea breezes driving afternoon convection daily. The east to southeasterly boundary layer flow will focus most convection over the interior and Gulf Coast regions, though some sporadic convection may also affect the east coast.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop over the East Coast Metro areas during the late morning and early afternoon, increasing in coverage and shifting west into the interior and Gulf Coast areas by late afternoon and early evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the weak flow pattern.

Temperatures will remain around or slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices reaching triple digits. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the evening hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly over the interior and west coast this afternoon as an easterly wind flow remains in place. Periods of sub-VFR conditions will be possible near storms especially at KAPF. Winds will gradually become light and variable across all terminals as this evening progresses.

MARINE
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through the weekend. This flow may turn more southeasterly heading into the early to middle portion of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters during this time frame. Winds and waves could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 88 78 89 / 40 70 40 60 West Kendall 77 88 76 89 / 30 70 40 60 Opa-Locka 78 89 78 90 / 40 70 40 60 Homestead 79 88 78 88 / 30 70 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 88 / 40 70 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 88 78 89 / 40 70 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 90 78 91 / 40 70 40 60 West Palm Beach 78 88 77 89 / 40 70 30 50 Boca Raton 79 88 78 90 / 40 70 30 50 Naples 77 91 76 90 / 30 80 40 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ069>075- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Carysfort Reef
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:26 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carysfort Reef, Florida, Tide feet

Molasses Reef
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:58 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Molasses Reef, Florida, Tide feet

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