Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
June 17, 2024 6:33 AM EDT (10:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:04 AM Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM Moonset 1:53 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 171028 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 628 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 625 AM Monday...
Showers and a few storms have developed within the northern half of the CWA this morning. Have freshened up PoPs to reflect the precipitation coverage seen on radar.
As of 300 AM Monday...
Key Point: * Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the lowlands this afternoon.
* Heat Advisory begins late this morning.
While high pressure will be present in the upper levels, a surface front crosses the area early this morning and brings the possibility of a shower or two as it moves through. Following the departure of the front, moisture and very warm air are expected to feed into the area while upper level high pressure remains in place overhead. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop as heat and humidity create unstable conditions this afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings show an impressive amount of CAPE, shear should be modest. A few storms could become strong, with heavy rain also a possibility as precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range.
Any convective activity will taper off with the loss of daytime heating, then quieter conditions are expected overnight.
High temperatures are projected to climb into the 90s across much of the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. The heat index will be even higher, with low 100s possible for portions of the lowlands this afternoon. A Heat Advisory begins late this morning and then continues beyond the near term period as a heat wave persists for much of the week.
Heat safety will be important this week, so here are a few tips: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM Monday...
Key Point:
* Heat Advisory continues Tuesday through Friday.
An upper-level ridge will shift a bit northward into Virginia and close to the CWA, which should help suppress shower or storm activity on Tuesday, though isolated activity can't be entirely ruled out for the mountains or up north. Tuesday will feature fairly high dewpoints, with many locations forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Combined with forecast highs in the mid-90s, heat index values will likely get into the lower 100s in many lowland locations, much of the lower elevations are forecast to hit Heat Advisory criteria.
We are forecasting it to be just about as hot on Wednesday as on Tuesday, but more dry air is expected to move in aloft. As some of this mixes down in daytime heating, afternoon surface dew points likely will get limited to the lower 60s, which will keep heat index values under 100F. Thus we may not quite hit Advisory criteria on Wednesday, but it could be close in spots.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 115 PM Sunday...
Key Point:
* Heat Advisory continues through Friday.
While the heat won't be going anywhere, and indeeds seems likely to increase gradually through the end of the week, dry air aloft is forecast to deepen and strengthen as we remain squarely under the upper-level ridge and surface high. Abundant mixing down of this dry air should help to limit surface dew points to the low to mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, which may help keep heat index values under 100F. However, the messaging on health and infrastructure risks will remain the same due to the longevity of the heat, so in coordination with neighbors, we posted a Heat Advisory for the whole work week. By Saturday, the pattern may begin to shift ahead of a front pushing across the Midwest, and light SW'ly breezes could boost dew points enough to push heat index values over 100F once again, so there is a good chance that we will need to extend the Advisory to include Saturday.
Under the heart of the ridge, with significant dry air aloft, no shower or storm activity is expected through Friday. Isolated activity is possible Saturday if the ridge starts to shift to the southeast as the upper trough and surface front move across the central US. Models are in good agreement on a front pushing across the region early next week, but timing is still uncertain, with the deterministic models ranging from Sunday afternoon to Monday. Thus while area-wide Chance POPs are in place for Sunday, the confidence isn't there currently to go higher at that lead time.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 625 AM Monday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as a front lifts to the north this morning. Additional activity is expected to develop as heat and humidity increase this afternoon. While VFR should continue for the majority of the day, brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur in showers and storms. Activity diminishes after sundown, then at least partial clearing and calm surface flow may allow for patches of valley fog to form overnight.
Outside of storms, winds remain light with a south to southwest direction today. Calm to light southerly winds are then expected tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR could occur in showers or thunderstorms today and valley fog tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
CLIMATE
As of 300 AM Monday...
A prolonged heat wave builds across the area this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values.
Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Monday, 6/17 | Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | HTS | 93 /100 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 94 / 96 (1936) | 94 / 94 (1994) | PKB | 92 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | BKW | 84 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) | EKN | 88 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) | -------------------------------------------------------- Thursday, 6/20 | Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) | HTS | 97 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) | BKW | 89 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 92 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | --------------------------------------------------------
Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records.
Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 92 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 93 | 96 (2012) | -----------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 628 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A prolonged heat wave builds throughout the week. Isolated showers or storms will be possible today and Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 625 AM Monday...
Showers and a few storms have developed within the northern half of the CWA this morning. Have freshened up PoPs to reflect the precipitation coverage seen on radar.
As of 300 AM Monday...
Key Point: * Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the lowlands this afternoon.
* Heat Advisory begins late this morning.
While high pressure will be present in the upper levels, a surface front crosses the area early this morning and brings the possibility of a shower or two as it moves through. Following the departure of the front, moisture and very warm air are expected to feed into the area while upper level high pressure remains in place overhead. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin to develop as heat and humidity create unstable conditions this afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings show an impressive amount of CAPE, shear should be modest. A few storms could become strong, with heavy rain also a possibility as precipitable water values rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range.
Any convective activity will taper off with the loss of daytime heating, then quieter conditions are expected overnight.
High temperatures are projected to climb into the 90s across much of the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s along the mountains. The heat index will be even higher, with low 100s possible for portions of the lowlands this afternoon. A Heat Advisory begins late this morning and then continues beyond the near term period as a heat wave persists for much of the week.
Heat safety will be important this week, so here are a few tips: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 AM Monday...
Key Point:
* Heat Advisory continues Tuesday through Friday.
An upper-level ridge will shift a bit northward into Virginia and close to the CWA, which should help suppress shower or storm activity on Tuesday, though isolated activity can't be entirely ruled out for the mountains or up north. Tuesday will feature fairly high dewpoints, with many locations forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Combined with forecast highs in the mid-90s, heat index values will likely get into the lower 100s in many lowland locations, much of the lower elevations are forecast to hit Heat Advisory criteria.
We are forecasting it to be just about as hot on Wednesday as on Tuesday, but more dry air is expected to move in aloft. As some of this mixes down in daytime heating, afternoon surface dew points likely will get limited to the lower 60s, which will keep heat index values under 100F. Thus we may not quite hit Advisory criteria on Wednesday, but it could be close in spots.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 115 PM Sunday...
Key Point:
* Heat Advisory continues through Friday.
While the heat won't be going anywhere, and indeeds seems likely to increase gradually through the end of the week, dry air aloft is forecast to deepen and strengthen as we remain squarely under the upper-level ridge and surface high. Abundant mixing down of this dry air should help to limit surface dew points to the low to mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, which may help keep heat index values under 100F. However, the messaging on health and infrastructure risks will remain the same due to the longevity of the heat, so in coordination with neighbors, we posted a Heat Advisory for the whole work week. By Saturday, the pattern may begin to shift ahead of a front pushing across the Midwest, and light SW'ly breezes could boost dew points enough to push heat index values over 100F once again, so there is a good chance that we will need to extend the Advisory to include Saturday.
Under the heart of the ridge, with significant dry air aloft, no shower or storm activity is expected through Friday. Isolated activity is possible Saturday if the ridge starts to shift to the southeast as the upper trough and surface front move across the central US. Models are in good agreement on a front pushing across the region early next week, but timing is still uncertain, with the deterministic models ranging from Sunday afternoon to Monday. Thus while area-wide Chance POPs are in place for Sunday, the confidence isn't there currently to go higher at that lead time.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 625 AM Monday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as a front lifts to the north this morning. Additional activity is expected to develop as heat and humidity increase this afternoon. While VFR should continue for the majority of the day, brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur in showers and storms. Activity diminishes after sundown, then at least partial clearing and calm surface flow may allow for patches of valley fog to form overnight.
Outside of storms, winds remain light with a south to southwest direction today. Calm to light southerly winds are then expected tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR could occur in showers or thunderstorms today and valley fog tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 06/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
CLIMATE
As of 300 AM Monday...
A prolonged heat wave builds across the area this week.
Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values.
Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Monday, 6/17 | Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | HTS | 93 /100 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 94 / 96 (1936) | 94 / 94 (1994) | PKB | 92 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | BKW | 84 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) | EKN | 88 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) | -------------------------------------------------------- Thursday, 6/20 | Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 97 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) | HTS | 97 /100 (1931) | 99 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) | BKW | 89 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 92 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | --------------------------------------------------------
Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records.
Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 92 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 93 | 96 (2012) | -----------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
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Wind History graph: HTS
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Charleston, WV,
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