Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) For the new work week, improving temperatures will mitigate the need for cold headlines after a long run of dangerously cold weather.

- 2) The work week starts off dry amid high pressure, but turns active for midweek and beyond with a series of passing disturbances and weak systems.

- 3) Warmer temperatures will cause snowmelt to occur, especially for the rivers as the break up of ice could cause ice jams in a few of our rivers such as the Muskingum, Tygart and Little Kanawha who have a lot of ice to deal with. We will have to keep an eye out in case jams do occur which could cause impactful flooding to the area.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A moderation in temperatures is expected today and into Tuesday as they climb to above average for this time of year. By midweek they will oscillate back down to slightly below average but then rebound for the weekend to above average once again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A clipper system is forecast to drag a cold front through late in the day on Tuesday with increasing chances for rain which will turnover to snow overnight as temperatures fall below freezing. Lingering precipitation could occur in the northeast mountains as snow going into Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations will be less impactful as little to none are expected.

After a break on Thursday, A wintry mix should occur on Friday as another system makes its way into the forecast for Friday although models are struggling with location and timing of this feature. Chances of snow will remain in the forecast for the higher elevations, however a mixture of snow and rain is slated for the lowlands going into the weekend. More active weather for the rest of the weekend is a possibility as a southern stream system is forecast to slide past the area into the new work week keeping high chances for precipitation for Sunday and Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Snowpack with a liquid equivalent of around half an inch to three quarter of an inch will have a gradual snowmelt and not a rapid flush through Tuesday to impose any significant impacts.
Melting of the ice on rivers could impact some of the rivers with ice jams. We will have to keep an eye out for this as some of the gauges sporadically shoot up representing ice interference and the potential for ice jams. This snowmelt cold create some instances where ice on rivers melt and breakup while releasing water or jam the rivers up with possible flooding.
Impacts and probabilities for this to occur should remain low at this point but it will require us to monitor in the upcoming days.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions should prevail for most of this period. Some MVFR CIGs may spill into the eastern site during the late afternoon and evening, however the probability remains low at this time. Light surface flow will mainly be out of the east- southeast among dry weather and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow showers during the latter part of the week.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.