Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilson, NY
June 2, 2024 2:47 AM EDT (06:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:35 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 3:36 PM |
LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 1013 Pm Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Overnight - East winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the evening.
Monday - Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night - Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 020605 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of low pressure will bring an increase in clouds and showers into Western New York today. This activity will diminish across the Finger Lakes region this evening, leaving behind some areas of low clouds and fog across portions of Western New York.
Cooler today across Western New York, but for the North Country where some filtered sunshine is possible along with dry conditions, afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as a mid level ridge across the region drifts to the east. High clouds will continue to thicken and gradually lower overnight. The clouds and ongoing warm advection will limit radiational cooling, with lows in the 55-60 degree range in most areas, with low 50s limited to the coolest Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
A weakening mid level shortwave trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. An associated weak surface low over lower Michigan in the morning will move into Western NY during the afternoon and wash out as forcing continues to weaken. Weak large scale ascent in the DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough will support a few showers with uneven coverage Sunday. Expect rain chances to start increasing in Western NY by late morning, then spread east across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes during the afternoon and evening. Some meager afternoon surface based instability develops, so an isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out.
Clouds will limit daytime warming some, with highs mainly in the lower 70s across Western NY, and 75-80 along and east of the Genesee Valley with a later arrival of thicker clouds and showers.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Weakening mid level shortwave will exit east of the area Sunday night, with any lingering scattered showers tapering off through the first half of the night. Some patchy fog will be possible, especially for areas that receive rainfall. Mild with lows mainly mid to upper 50s.
Mid and upper level ridging will build over the region through the first part of next week, while weak Canadian surface high pressure ridges south over the area at the same time, with surface ridge axis slowly shifting east across eastern NY and western New England by Tuesday. As one would expect, this will provide mainly dry weather across western and northcentral NY during this timeframe. Exception will be along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries during the afternoon/early evening hours as instability ramps up owed to strong diurnal heating. This will be the case mainly across areas south of Lake Ontario where a modest increase in low level moisture advection will occur, bringing about the chance for a few isolated showers/possible rumble of thunder across these aforementioned areas. Otherwise, it will start to 'feel' like summer again as both temperatures and humidity see a day-to-day rise Monday into Tuesday.
Nothing oppressive as far as humidity levels go, although may start to 'feel' a touch on the muggy side by Tuesday as dew points start to creep up into the low 60s. Temperatures on the other hand will be above average and on the warm side. Highs Monday mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s. By Tuesday, much of the area will climb into the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s reserved for the higher terrain.
Monday night lows, mid 50s to low 60s.
Ridging surface and aloft will shift east across New England Tuesday night, while a deepening upper level trough that will impact our area later in the forecast period, starts to take shape across the Canadian Prairies. More on that in the long term portion of the discussion. In between these features, a weak mid level shortwave will ride north over the central Great Lakes along the back side of the mid level ridge. This will bring the chance for a few showers/rumble of thunder to areas mainly south of Lake Ontario, best chances across western NY closer to the shortwave. Humidity levels will continue to increase with a muggy night on tap as lows only fall back into the low to mid 60s for most of the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad mid and upper-level ridging extending from the southeastern states to New England at the start of this period will gradually give way to a negatively-tilted upper trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday...with this trough then likely to cut off into a closed low that will take up residence across our region Friday and Saturday. While the medium range guidance packages unsurprisingly continue to struggle with the details of this transition this far out...this will generally result in our weather becoming much more unsettled as we push through the middle and latter portions of the week...with initially above normal temperatures also settling back to near to slightly below average by Friday and Saturday.
Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Wednesday the front flank of the approaching trough will start to approach far western New York as we push through the course of the day. Combined with daytime heating of our moderately humid airmass...this should allow for the development of some scattered showers and thunder- storms...with the greatest chances for these found from the Genesee Valley westward. Further east pcpn chances should diminish with increasing eastward extent... with it quite possible that the North Country could remain mainly dry. Otherwise notably above normal temperatures will continue for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid 80s across the lower elevations.
Wednesday night and Thursday the elongating upper trough will continue to expand its way southeastward across the Great Lakes...
with its attendant surface low over Northern Ontario likely pushing a weakening warm frontal segment across our area Wednesday night...
followed by a prefrontal trough and trailing cold front between Thursday and Thursday evening
Consequently
pcpn potential looks to increase to the likely range (and likely the greatest levels of the period) later Wednesday night and Thursday in concert with the approach/passage of the above boundaries. Meanwhile a warm and humid Wednesday night will be followed by high temps pulling back some to the mid and upper 70s on Thursday due to the expected increase in cloud and precipitation coverage.
Following the passage of this system's cold front...notably cooler and less humid air attendant to the upper low will then overspread our region through the remainder of the week. This will result in daytime highs pulling back into the mid 60s to lower 70s for both Friday and Saturday...and nightly lows also settling back into the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile the presence of the upper level low/cool pool aloft will support the potential for additional scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday...with chances for these generally peaking each afternoon with daytime heating/increased diurnally-driven instability.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions start the TAF cycle, but a weakening area of low pressure will spread an increase in clouds, and later showers across Western New York. Showers will reach the western TAF sites around noontime, and later push their way into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. Lift is marginal, and with activity possibly remaining scattered in nature this afternoon will continue with just a VCSH in the TAFs.
KART and areas east of Lake Ontario may just stay dry through this period, with VFR flight conditions.
This evening shower activity will diminish...last across the Finger Lakes region. The lower atmosphere will remain saturated and with weak pressure gradient and light winds, areas of fog and lowering ceiling heights are expected. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of the Southern Tier (KJHW) by early evening, with IFR or low end MVFR expected for KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.
Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding area VFR through the night.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
Quiet weather the rest of this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night through Monday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weakening area of low pressure will bring an increase in clouds and showers into Western New York today. This activity will diminish across the Finger Lakes region this evening, leaving behind some areas of low clouds and fog across portions of Western New York.
Cooler today across Western New York, but for the North Country where some filtered sunshine is possible along with dry conditions, afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as a mid level ridge across the region drifts to the east. High clouds will continue to thicken and gradually lower overnight. The clouds and ongoing warm advection will limit radiational cooling, with lows in the 55-60 degree range in most areas, with low 50s limited to the coolest Southern Tier valleys and North Country.
A weakening mid level shortwave trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Sunday. An associated weak surface low over lower Michigan in the morning will move into Western NY during the afternoon and wash out as forcing continues to weaken. Weak large scale ascent in the DPVA and height falls ahead of the trough will support a few showers with uneven coverage Sunday. Expect rain chances to start increasing in Western NY by late morning, then spread east across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes during the afternoon and evening. Some meager afternoon surface based instability develops, so an isolated thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out.
Clouds will limit daytime warming some, with highs mainly in the lower 70s across Western NY, and 75-80 along and east of the Genesee Valley with a later arrival of thicker clouds and showers.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Weakening mid level shortwave will exit east of the area Sunday night, with any lingering scattered showers tapering off through the first half of the night. Some patchy fog will be possible, especially for areas that receive rainfall. Mild with lows mainly mid to upper 50s.
Mid and upper level ridging will build over the region through the first part of next week, while weak Canadian surface high pressure ridges south over the area at the same time, with surface ridge axis slowly shifting east across eastern NY and western New England by Tuesday. As one would expect, this will provide mainly dry weather across western and northcentral NY during this timeframe. Exception will be along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries during the afternoon/early evening hours as instability ramps up owed to strong diurnal heating. This will be the case mainly across areas south of Lake Ontario where a modest increase in low level moisture advection will occur, bringing about the chance for a few isolated showers/possible rumble of thunder across these aforementioned areas. Otherwise, it will start to 'feel' like summer again as both temperatures and humidity see a day-to-day rise Monday into Tuesday.
Nothing oppressive as far as humidity levels go, although may start to 'feel' a touch on the muggy side by Tuesday as dew points start to creep up into the low 60s. Temperatures on the other hand will be above average and on the warm side. Highs Monday mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s. By Tuesday, much of the area will climb into the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s reserved for the higher terrain.
Monday night lows, mid 50s to low 60s.
Ridging surface and aloft will shift east across New England Tuesday night, while a deepening upper level trough that will impact our area later in the forecast period, starts to take shape across the Canadian Prairies. More on that in the long term portion of the discussion. In between these features, a weak mid level shortwave will ride north over the central Great Lakes along the back side of the mid level ridge. This will bring the chance for a few showers/rumble of thunder to areas mainly south of Lake Ontario, best chances across western NY closer to the shortwave. Humidity levels will continue to increase with a muggy night on tap as lows only fall back into the low to mid 60s for most of the area.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad mid and upper-level ridging extending from the southeastern states to New England at the start of this period will gradually give way to a negatively-tilted upper trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday...with this trough then likely to cut off into a closed low that will take up residence across our region Friday and Saturday. While the medium range guidance packages unsurprisingly continue to struggle with the details of this transition this far out...this will generally result in our weather becoming much more unsettled as we push through the middle and latter portions of the week...with initially above normal temperatures also settling back to near to slightly below average by Friday and Saturday.
Digging a little deeper into the forecast details...on Wednesday the front flank of the approaching trough will start to approach far western New York as we push through the course of the day. Combined with daytime heating of our moderately humid airmass...this should allow for the development of some scattered showers and thunder- storms...with the greatest chances for these found from the Genesee Valley westward. Further east pcpn chances should diminish with increasing eastward extent... with it quite possible that the North Country could remain mainly dry. Otherwise notably above normal temperatures will continue for one more day...with highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s across the higher terrain to the lower to mid 80s across the lower elevations.
Wednesday night and Thursday the elongating upper trough will continue to expand its way southeastward across the Great Lakes...
with its attendant surface low over Northern Ontario likely pushing a weakening warm frontal segment across our area Wednesday night...
followed by a prefrontal trough and trailing cold front between Thursday and Thursday evening
Consequently
pcpn potential looks to increase to the likely range (and likely the greatest levels of the period) later Wednesday night and Thursday in concert with the approach/passage of the above boundaries. Meanwhile a warm and humid Wednesday night will be followed by high temps pulling back some to the mid and upper 70s on Thursday due to the expected increase in cloud and precipitation coverage.
Following the passage of this system's cold front...notably cooler and less humid air attendant to the upper low will then overspread our region through the remainder of the week. This will result in daytime highs pulling back into the mid 60s to lower 70s for both Friday and Saturday...and nightly lows also settling back into the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile the presence of the upper level low/cool pool aloft will support the potential for additional scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday...with chances for these generally peaking each afternoon with daytime heating/increased diurnally-driven instability.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
For the 06Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions start the TAF cycle, but a weakening area of low pressure will spread an increase in clouds, and later showers across Western New York. Showers will reach the western TAF sites around noontime, and later push their way into the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. Lift is marginal, and with activity possibly remaining scattered in nature this afternoon will continue with just a VCSH in the TAFs.
KART and areas east of Lake Ontario may just stay dry through this period, with VFR flight conditions.
This evening shower activity will diminish...last across the Finger Lakes region. The lower atmosphere will remain saturated and with weak pressure gradient and light winds, areas of fog and lowering ceiling heights are expected. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of the Southern Tier (KJHW) by early evening, with IFR or low end MVFR expected for KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.
Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding area VFR through the night.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
Quiet weather the rest of this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night through Monday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 6 mi | 48 min | SE 4.1G | 63°F | 30.01 | |||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 13 mi | 48 min | SE 1G | 61°F | 29.99 | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 19 mi | 48 min | 62°F | 30.01 | ||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 30 mi | 48 min | ESE 2.9G | 64°F | 66°F | 29.99 | 47°F | |
| 45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax | 33 mi | 48 min | NNE 5.8G | 59°F | 58°F | 0 ft | 30.01 | |
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 37 mi | 48 min | WSW 1.9G | 59°F | 58°F | 0 ft | 30.00 | |
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 44 mi | 48 min | 62°F | 29.98 | ||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 46 mi | 48 min | SSE 12G | 62°F | 61°F | 0 ft | 30.00 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 15 sm | 54 min | E 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 48°F | 59% | 30.00 |
Buffalo, NY,
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