Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, IL
June 18, 2024 9:19 AM CDT (14:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 4:33 PM Moonset 1:46 AM |
Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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FXUS63 KILX 181135 AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid weather will prevail across central and southeast IL through Sunday. Heat index values will peak in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon, and closer to 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday afternoon.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today until sunset, especially in eastern IL. The risk of severe storms is low, though lightning hazards and isolated/brief heavy rains exist along with gusty winds especially in eastern IL.
- A better chance for thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front moves southeast through Illinois.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The 09Z/4 am surface map shows large high pressure off the East Coast while strong 988 mb low pressure was over north central Nebraska and east central CO. The frontal boundary extended from central CO through central SD into nw MN. Warm front had lifted well north of IL into southern MN and central WI. Water Vapor loops shows tropical plume of moisture advecting northward from the Yucatan Peninsula and central Gulf of Mexico across lower/mid MS river valley and into central/eastern IL and Indiana.
Precipitable Water (PW) values were very moist, ranging from 1.6 to 2 inches southeast of the IL river with southeast IL just above 2 inches. 850 mb SSW jet of 30-35 kts was over central and eastern IL with an area of mainly light rain showers along and east of I-57, though a few showers as far west as highway 51 east of highway 51 and one shower near the Logan and Macon county border. These showers were lifting northward. Broken to overcast mid level clouds giving mostly cloudy to cloudy skies from Peoria and Springfield eastward into Indiana, with clear to mostly clear skies west of there over western IL/MS river valley. Mild temps were in the 72-78F range with dewpoints 65-72F. Peoria tied a record warm low of 76F on Monday June 17 that originally was set a decade ago in 2014.
Deeper plume of tropical moisture continues to stream NNE over central and eastern IL keeping chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in eastern IL today. SPC does not have our area in a risk area today, though a could be an isolated cell or two that produces gusty winds this afternoon in eastern IL. More cloud cover today and not as hot as past two days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, coolest in eastern IL and warmest west of the IL river where more sunshine possible. Dewpoints in the lower 70s gives heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, and near 100F nw of the IL river.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible near the Wabash river in southeast IL early this evening until sunset, then quiet weather expected rest of tonight with muggy lows in the low to mid 70s.
On Wed the frontal boundary to our nw will press southeast into far nw IL and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to areas nw of the IL river by Wed afternoon. Still could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm east of the IL river Wed afternoon mainly in east central IL. SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk over northern IL, from I-80 north Wed afternoon/evening. Highs Wed in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s and afternoon heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s and near 100F over the IL river valley.
Strong subtropical mid/upper level ridge over the mid Atlantic states to strengthen as it expands and strengthens into southern New England and ridges back into the mid MS river valley during 2nd half of the week. This will likely bring back hotter temperatures and higher high indices especially by Fri/Sat similar to what were experienced yesterday with highs in the mid 90s and even some upper 90s and heat indices around or even surpassing 100F. Will issue a special weather statement to address this extended and early season heat wave. The experimental NWS HeatRisk map shows much of IL in major to extreme category on Friday and Saturday. Convection chances shift north of central IL on Thu with just slight pops north of Peoria Thu afternoon closer to frontal boundary in far northern IL.
Extended models continue to a shallow upper level trof moving into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during this weekend and pushing a cold front se into central IL by Sunday morning. Will see increasing chances of convection during Sat night from nw to se and lingering chances on Sunday especially se of the IL river.
Highs Sunday in the upper 80s and lower 90s, warmest in southeast IL. Heat indices peak in the low to mid 90s Sunday afternoon.
Drier and less humid air arrives Sunday night and Monday, with highs Monday in the upper 80s to near 90F.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for June 25 to July 1st has much of the lower 48 states (excluding the Pacific Northwest) trending above normal temperatures with IL having a 55-60% chance of warmer than normal temperatures.
07
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Low pressure will be in place across the Great Plains resulting in moderate southerly winds across central Illinois through the period. Winds will gust to around 20-25 kt much of today through around sunset, peaking this afternoon and early evening. Patchy MVFR ceilings are in place this morning across portions of central Illinois mainly west of I-55, but should lift to VFR by around midday with VFR conditions prevailing the remainder of the period.
Deubelbeiss
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid weather will prevail across central and southeast IL through Sunday. Heat index values will peak in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon, and closer to 100 degrees on Friday and Saturday afternoon.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today until sunset, especially in eastern IL. The risk of severe storms is low, though lightning hazards and isolated/brief heavy rains exist along with gusty winds especially in eastern IL.
- A better chance for thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front moves southeast through Illinois.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
The 09Z/4 am surface map shows large high pressure off the East Coast while strong 988 mb low pressure was over north central Nebraska and east central CO. The frontal boundary extended from central CO through central SD into nw MN. Warm front had lifted well north of IL into southern MN and central WI. Water Vapor loops shows tropical plume of moisture advecting northward from the Yucatan Peninsula and central Gulf of Mexico across lower/mid MS river valley and into central/eastern IL and Indiana.
Precipitable Water (PW) values were very moist, ranging from 1.6 to 2 inches southeast of the IL river with southeast IL just above 2 inches. 850 mb SSW jet of 30-35 kts was over central and eastern IL with an area of mainly light rain showers along and east of I-57, though a few showers as far west as highway 51 east of highway 51 and one shower near the Logan and Macon county border. These showers were lifting northward. Broken to overcast mid level clouds giving mostly cloudy to cloudy skies from Peoria and Springfield eastward into Indiana, with clear to mostly clear skies west of there over western IL/MS river valley. Mild temps were in the 72-78F range with dewpoints 65-72F. Peoria tied a record warm low of 76F on Monday June 17 that originally was set a decade ago in 2014.
Deeper plume of tropical moisture continues to stream NNE over central and eastern IL keeping chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in eastern IL today. SPC does not have our area in a risk area today, though a could be an isolated cell or two that produces gusty winds this afternoon in eastern IL. More cloud cover today and not as hot as past two days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, coolest in eastern IL and warmest west of the IL river where more sunshine possible. Dewpoints in the lower 70s gives heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, and near 100F nw of the IL river.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible near the Wabash river in southeast IL early this evening until sunset, then quiet weather expected rest of tonight with muggy lows in the low to mid 70s.
On Wed the frontal boundary to our nw will press southeast into far nw IL and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to areas nw of the IL river by Wed afternoon. Still could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm east of the IL river Wed afternoon mainly in east central IL. SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk over northern IL, from I-80 north Wed afternoon/evening. Highs Wed in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s and afternoon heat indices peaking in the mid to upper 90s and near 100F over the IL river valley.
Strong subtropical mid/upper level ridge over the mid Atlantic states to strengthen as it expands and strengthens into southern New England and ridges back into the mid MS river valley during 2nd half of the week. This will likely bring back hotter temperatures and higher high indices especially by Fri/Sat similar to what were experienced yesterday with highs in the mid 90s and even some upper 90s and heat indices around or even surpassing 100F. Will issue a special weather statement to address this extended and early season heat wave. The experimental NWS HeatRisk map shows much of IL in major to extreme category on Friday and Saturday. Convection chances shift north of central IL on Thu with just slight pops north of Peoria Thu afternoon closer to frontal boundary in far northern IL.
Extended models continue to a shallow upper level trof moving into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during this weekend and pushing a cold front se into central IL by Sunday morning. Will see increasing chances of convection during Sat night from nw to se and lingering chances on Sunday especially se of the IL river.
Highs Sunday in the upper 80s and lower 90s, warmest in southeast IL. Heat indices peak in the low to mid 90s Sunday afternoon.
Drier and less humid air arrives Sunday night and Monday, with highs Monday in the upper 80s to near 90F.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day outlook for June 25 to July 1st has much of the lower 48 states (excluding the Pacific Northwest) trending above normal temperatures with IL having a 55-60% chance of warmer than normal temperatures.
07
AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Low pressure will be in place across the Great Plains resulting in moderate southerly winds across central Illinois through the period. Winds will gust to around 20-25 kt much of today through around sunset, peaking this afternoon and early evening. Patchy MVFR ceilings are in place this morning across portions of central Illinois mainly west of I-55, but should lift to VFR by around midday with VFR conditions prevailing the remainder of the period.
Deubelbeiss
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Central Illinois, IL,
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