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FXUS63 KILX 011127 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 527 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

SHORT TERM
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Key Messages

* Widespread moderate rains early this morning, to diminish to widely scattered light showers and drizzle as the day progresses.

* Additional lighter rain chances Saturday night into Sunday

Early morning surface map shows 1003 mb low pressure over west central MO just west of Clinton, MO had a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending ne into the IL river valley just nw of the IL river. Galesburg was on the nw side of the front with NE wind 10 kts and temp of 40F. Temps over rest of central and se IL were hovering in the low to mid 40s. Radar mosaic shows a shield of moderate rains over central and southeast IL and extending back over the northern half of MO at 3 am. Rain showers were becoming more scattered and lighter sw of Flora in Clay county. 850 mb southerly jet of 30-50 kts over southern IL was feeding higher PW values of 0.8 to 1 inch into central IL and helping produce the moderate rainfall. Radar estimated between 0.30 and 0.70 inches of rain has fallen past 12 hours from the IL river valley se to Danville to Shelbyville line and from Effingham to Lawrenceville south.

Latest CAMs show low pressure weakening to 1009 mb as it ejects ne into central IL by 00Z/6 pm today. Models show the showers becoming more scattered from north to south during this morning though there will linger chances of showers across much of area into early evening then diminish by late evening as low pressure exits into northern Indiana. Highs today to range from the lower 40s nw of the IL river to the mid 50s in southeast IL, from I-70 southeast. Lows overnight in the mid 30s nw of the IL river and lower 40s in east IL from I-57 east.

Dry conditions are forecast on Saturday though a fair amount of low clouds will linger with a strong inversion from 3-5k ft trapping low level moisture over area with lighter wind flow.
Highs Saturday in the low to mid 40s over central IL and upper 40s to around 50F in southeast IL.

A weaker disturbance to eject from northern/ne OK late Saturday afternoon into central/nw IL by dawn Sunday. This will likely bring more rain showers into the area from late Sat evening into Sunday morning and diminishing to slight chances of light rain showers by Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts with this system appear much lighter with one to two tenthes inch from I-72 north and less than a tenth inch in southeast IL. Temps appear warm enough again for all rain in central IL with any mix being nw of CWA. Highs Sunday similar to Saturday with low to mid 40s central IL and upper 40s and lower 50s in southeast IL.

07

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

An upper level low/trof moves into IL during Sunday night keeping slight chances of light rain showers around with another 20-30% chance of rain showers Monday night as northern stream short wave trof digs se over the Midwest. Any rainfall amounts from these system should be light. Seasonable highs Monday in the low to mid 40s and a few degrees milder on Tuesday.

IL will be in a nw upper level flow by Wednesday and becoming more semi-zonal by late next week with milder temperatures arriving Thu thru next Saturday when highs in the 50s possible. Rain chances look low during Wed-Saturday and GFS model is outlying showing qpf over IL overnight Thu night and Fri morning.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Dec 8-14th has a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures over IL with a 35-40% chance of above normal precipitation. So winter like weather looks to be put on hold for the next two weeks.

07

AVIATION
(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Going to be pessimistic with the TAFs this package. Though some sites have VFR vis, going to start all TAF sites with MVFR vis and IFR/LIFR cigs. Will continue these conditions through the morning and then cigs are forecast to lower below 500 ft later this morning and remain that way through the rest of the TAF period. The steady rainfall will also decrease as it moves northeast this morning. Scattered showers are still possible through close to midnight so will have VCSH at all sites. Vis will lower in the afternoon and then drop to 1sm or lower around midnight. Semi-stationary boundary is located just northwest of the IL river. As the low lifts across the state, winds will go from southeast to westerly by late tonight. PIA winds will be more variable given the conditions. Wind speeds should be around 10kts or less through the period.

Auten

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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