Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashland, IL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

WINTER STORM ENDING...
The main weather story this afternoon is the gradual end of the recent winter storm. A deep, 985mb low pressure system is lifting across the Great Lakes, maintaining a tight pressure gradient across Central Illinois. While the pressure gradient is beginning to relax as the low pulls further away, the combination of a modest isallobaric component (2-3mb/3hr pressure rises) and steep low-level lapse rates continues to support wind gusts near advisory criteria (45 mph). A slow downward trend in wind speed is expected, and as a result, the Wind Advisory should be okay to expire at noon. Frequent gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will persist through sunset. Areas that received accumulating snow may still experience blowing and drifting, particularly in more rural and open locations. Although the bulk of the accumulating snow has ended, model soundings indicate steep lapse rates extending into the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) with modest moisture, which could lead to some light snow showers or flurries persisting into the late afternoon before significant drying occurs this evening.

TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...
A surface ridge axis will traverse Central Illinois on Tuesday, resulting in diminishing winds. Temperatures will remain on the colder side under the ridge, with highs only reaching the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will shift southerly behind the ridge, initiating a warming trend, but not before another fast-moving clipper system impacts the region. This clipper is forecast to dig across the Great Lakes late Tuesday evening and overnight.
Simultaneously, strong mid-level warm air advection will overspread Illinois from the south.

Snow is anticipated to develop Tuesday evening, with the greatest accumulations expected across the northern half of the state.
Precipitation should remain far enough ahead of the developing warm nose to minimize concerns regarding precipitation type. South of I-72, forecast soundings indicate dry air below 850mb, which may result in some virga. The NBM 24-hour mean snow totals suggest a range of 1-2 inches north of I-72, diminishing to a dusting to an inch south of the interstate. The 75th percentile of NBM guidance increases to 2-3 inches along and north of the Illinois River Valley. Initially cold air will promote efficient snow production with Snow-to-Liquid Ratios (SLRs) starting around 16-18:1 (NBM mean). As warmer air advects into the region toward the end of the event, SLRs are expected to decrease closer to 7-10:1.

LATE WEEK & WEEKEND WARMUP...
The upper-level trough currently over the Great Lakes is progged to drift east toward New England through the latter half of the week and this weekend, gradually weakening. Concurrently, broad upper ridging will spread eastward into the Midwest, though it, too, will weaken slightly over time. Initially, the jet stream and associated storm track will remain well to our north, allowing mild to warm temperatures to advect into the area from the southwest.

The primary forecast story will be the return of spring-like warmth. High temperatures are forecast to return to the 60s for much of the area on Thursday, followed by 60s and 70s on Friday and Saturday. As the upper ridge begins to break down over the weekend, a series of shortwaves will progressively track closer to the region. While NBM PoPs (Probability of Precipitation) remain low for now, we will need to monitor for potential adjustments to the track of these incoming waves as the week progresses.

Deubelbeiss

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty northwesterly winds, low clouds, and occasional snow showers will persist at the central Illinois terminals through the afternoon. Wind gusts will range from 30-40kt before beginning to slowly decrease toward sunset. Based on the latest guidance, have eased gusts to 15-25kt by mid-evening, then have dropped gusts entirely after 07z/08z. NAM/HRRR forecast soundings suggest MVFR ceilings will rise to low VFR during the 03z-05z time frame. Light falling and blowing snow will continue through the afternoon, occasionally reducing visbys to 2-3 miles. The snow showers will exit the region toward sunset, so visbys are expected to improve at that time.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ027-028.

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ029>031-036>038-040>042-047-048.