Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO
July 3, 2024 3:25 AM MDT (09:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM Moonset 6:48 PM |
FXUS63 KGLD 030829 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 229 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening. However, if storms/cloud cover are present through the morning and early afternoon hours, storm and severe chances will be very low.
Otherwise, the storms later today will be capable of producing hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or two. Be sure to look for updates this afternoon.
- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 227 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Another night, another round of storms moving/developing in the area. Radar continues to show storms trying to develop and move into the area generally south of I-70. Given the moisture advecting into the area and the general east/northeast movement, am expecting these storms to move through the area in a few clusters through the morning. The storms and additional cloud cover should help mitigate fog chances, though prior nights suggest that some patchy fog may still be able to form in this moist low level air mass.
Today will largely be dictated by whether cloud/storms are present through the day or not. Areas that remain cloud cover or see storms through the morning will be more likely to only warm to around 80, while the rest of the area would warm into the mid to upper 80s.
Currently, Northwest Kansas is favored to be cloud covered with counties near the Colorado border more likely to clear. Should storms be present through the morning, severe weather looks to be unlikely with CAPE generally less than 1000 J/KG and cloud cover inhibiting the development of more instability. Maybe could see a severe wind gust with a stronger storm, but the lack of DCAPE and winds remaining generally below 50 kts will keep the chance very low.
For this afternoon, still looking at a shortwave trough moving through the Western Rockies and Northern Plains with a deepening low pressure near the Front Range. This will provide more than adequate forcing for storms to develop, especially along the Palmer Divide.
The complicating factor is how long cloud cover and storms will linger through the morning and early afternoon. If storms and cloud cover linger through much of the day, this afternoons storms could be limited in coverage and intensity, if they even form at all.
If the storms and cloud cover break during the early afternoon hours, then the area will have a decent chance for a few cluster of storms to develop and move through parts of the area. In this scenario, higher instability (CAPE 2000 J/KG, Mid Lapse Rates 8C+)
and high effective shear (45-60 kts) could allow for some initial supercell development. This would favor Eastern Colorado and give the highest chance for large hail today, potentially up to 3 inches in size. A tornado may also be possible, though low level shear and SRH continues to be forecast to be low. As storms progressed east, clusters and lines would become more likely and increase the wind threat. With DCAPE greater than 1000 J/KG, downshear vectors around 50-65 kts, and mid to high cloud winds around 50-70 kts, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph are possible, especially in a linear mode.
Large hail and maybe a QLCS tornado would also be possible, but wind would be the main threat at that point.
In summary, there is a chance for strong severe storms this afternoon and evening (likely between 3-9pm MT). All hazards are possible, though wind is the main threat, followed by hail. If this morning's storms and/or cloud cover persist, the risk for storms and severe storms will lower considerably.
Tonight, skies are forecast to initially clear from any afternoon/evening storms. However, another round of storms is possible as the trough swings through and the surface low/front push through the area. Storms would likely be sub-severe, but there could be enough instability and DCAPE for an instance or two of large hail or wind gusts to 65 mph. Lows are forecast to drop to 50's for the western half of the area, but 60's for the eastern half of the area where the second round of storms is possible.
For the 4th of July, a relatively mild day is forecast with highs in the 80's and skies becoming mostly sunny as drier air works into the area behind the front. The main inconvenience will be the presence of stronger winds from the north with speeds around 20 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. For the evening hours, winds are forecast to begin tapering off as the sun sets. Skies should remain clear short of a low potential for some storms to develop over the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. Chances are only 15% and even then would likely be limited to an isolated storm or two that dissipates fairly quickly.
The overnight hours would see temperatures drop into the 50's with lighter winds and mostly clear skies.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Friday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest flow aloft, in between low pressure to our north and east and a strengthening ridge to our west. GFS/NAM 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts advertise a weather system moving through the western/southwestern 1/3-1/4 of the forecast area during the afternoon with potentially another moving through the entire area or much of the area overnight if the NAM/ECMWF models are correct.
Presently, we'll cap the pops at 20% for the time being. High temperatures are forecast to remain below normal in the lower to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.
Saturday...not much change in the general 500mb pattern when compared to Friday. There is some agreement from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models that another weather system will move into the eastern part of the forecast area during the afternoon hours from the southwest, supporting NBM 20%-30% pops for thunderstorms generally east of Highway 27. Overnight, there may be some type of weather system moving through from the northwest, supporting 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms. Timing of when this system arrives in somewhat in question. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are showing a little more spread compared to 24 hours ago with the GFS the warmest. If it were to verify using typical mixing at 850mb, high temperatures would be a few degrees lower than currently forecast. Presently, highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday...500mb pattern is showing an upper level trough axis moving through within the broader pattern featuring troughing over the area and ridging to our west. With surface high pressure moving in, high temperatures look to be cooler than Saturday. Just how much cooler is the question as ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are in the 13C to 18C range with the GFS in the 19C to 21C range. Given the spread, no chance of improving the current temperature forecast of highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s. Regarding rainfall chances, there appears to be at least a 20%- 30% chance as there is some moisture in the 850-500mb layer moving through which with the trough axis moving through should support at least isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday...we remain under northwest flow aloft with slim (20%) chances for thunderstorms to move off the Colorado front range and into the area during the late afternoon through overnight hours.
High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with 90 to 95 Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aside from a potential for showers/thunderstorms at the GLD terminal overnight
and at either terminal Wed aft/eve
VFR conditions should otherwise prevail. Confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention at this time. Light easterly winds will shift to the south and increase to 15-25 knots late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 229 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms are possible this afternoon/evening. However, if storms/cloud cover are present through the morning and early afternoon hours, storm and severe chances will be very low.
Otherwise, the storms later today will be capable of producing hail up to 3 inches, wind gusts to 80 mph, and a tornado or two. Be sure to look for updates this afternoon.
- Breezy to gusty 4th of July; normal to below normal temperatures into early next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 227 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Another night, another round of storms moving/developing in the area. Radar continues to show storms trying to develop and move into the area generally south of I-70. Given the moisture advecting into the area and the general east/northeast movement, am expecting these storms to move through the area in a few clusters through the morning. The storms and additional cloud cover should help mitigate fog chances, though prior nights suggest that some patchy fog may still be able to form in this moist low level air mass.
Today will largely be dictated by whether cloud/storms are present through the day or not. Areas that remain cloud cover or see storms through the morning will be more likely to only warm to around 80, while the rest of the area would warm into the mid to upper 80s.
Currently, Northwest Kansas is favored to be cloud covered with counties near the Colorado border more likely to clear. Should storms be present through the morning, severe weather looks to be unlikely with CAPE generally less than 1000 J/KG and cloud cover inhibiting the development of more instability. Maybe could see a severe wind gust with a stronger storm, but the lack of DCAPE and winds remaining generally below 50 kts will keep the chance very low.
For this afternoon, still looking at a shortwave trough moving through the Western Rockies and Northern Plains with a deepening low pressure near the Front Range. This will provide more than adequate forcing for storms to develop, especially along the Palmer Divide.
The complicating factor is how long cloud cover and storms will linger through the morning and early afternoon. If storms and cloud cover linger through much of the day, this afternoons storms could be limited in coverage and intensity, if they even form at all.
If the storms and cloud cover break during the early afternoon hours, then the area will have a decent chance for a few cluster of storms to develop and move through parts of the area. In this scenario, higher instability (CAPE 2000 J/KG, Mid Lapse Rates 8C+)
and high effective shear (45-60 kts) could allow for some initial supercell development. This would favor Eastern Colorado and give the highest chance for large hail today, potentially up to 3 inches in size. A tornado may also be possible, though low level shear and SRH continues to be forecast to be low. As storms progressed east, clusters and lines would become more likely and increase the wind threat. With DCAPE greater than 1000 J/KG, downshear vectors around 50-65 kts, and mid to high cloud winds around 50-70 kts, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph are possible, especially in a linear mode.
Large hail and maybe a QLCS tornado would also be possible, but wind would be the main threat at that point.
In summary, there is a chance for strong severe storms this afternoon and evening (likely between 3-9pm MT). All hazards are possible, though wind is the main threat, followed by hail. If this morning's storms and/or cloud cover persist, the risk for storms and severe storms will lower considerably.
Tonight, skies are forecast to initially clear from any afternoon/evening storms. However, another round of storms is possible as the trough swings through and the surface low/front push through the area. Storms would likely be sub-severe, but there could be enough instability and DCAPE for an instance or two of large hail or wind gusts to 65 mph. Lows are forecast to drop to 50's for the western half of the area, but 60's for the eastern half of the area where the second round of storms is possible.
For the 4th of July, a relatively mild day is forecast with highs in the 80's and skies becoming mostly sunny as drier air works into the area behind the front. The main inconvenience will be the presence of stronger winds from the north with speeds around 20 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. For the evening hours, winds are forecast to begin tapering off as the sun sets. Skies should remain clear short of a low potential for some storms to develop over the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. Chances are only 15% and even then would likely be limited to an isolated storm or two that dissipates fairly quickly.
The overnight hours would see temperatures drop into the 50's with lighter winds and mostly clear skies.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 100 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Friday...the forecast area is forecast to be under northwest flow aloft, in between low pressure to our north and east and a strengthening ridge to our west. GFS/NAM 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts advertise a weather system moving through the western/southwestern 1/3-1/4 of the forecast area during the afternoon with potentially another moving through the entire area or much of the area overnight if the NAM/ECMWF models are correct.
Presently, we'll cap the pops at 20% for the time being. High temperatures are forecast to remain below normal in the lower to upper 80s with low temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range.
Saturday...not much change in the general 500mb pattern when compared to Friday. There is some agreement from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models that another weather system will move into the eastern part of the forecast area during the afternoon hours from the southwest, supporting NBM 20%-30% pops for thunderstorms generally east of Highway 27. Overnight, there may be some type of weather system moving through from the northwest, supporting 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms. Timing of when this system arrives in somewhat in question. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are showing a little more spread compared to 24 hours ago with the GFS the warmest. If it were to verify using typical mixing at 850mb, high temperatures would be a few degrees lower than currently forecast. Presently, highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday...500mb pattern is showing an upper level trough axis moving through within the broader pattern featuring troughing over the area and ridging to our west. With surface high pressure moving in, high temperatures look to be cooler than Saturday. Just how much cooler is the question as ECMWF/GEM 850mb temperatures are in the 13C to 18C range with the GFS in the 19C to 21C range. Given the spread, no chance of improving the current temperature forecast of highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s. Regarding rainfall chances, there appears to be at least a 20%- 30% chance as there is some moisture in the 850-500mb layer moving through which with the trough axis moving through should support at least isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms.
Monday and Tuesday...we remain under northwest flow aloft with slim (20%) chances for thunderstorms to move off the Colorado front range and into the area during the late afternoon through overnight hours.
High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the 85 to 90 degree range with 90 to 95 Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Aside from a potential for showers/thunderstorms at the GLD terminal overnight
and at either terminal Wed aft/eve
VFR conditions should otherwise prevail. Confidence in thunderstorm location and coverage is low enough to preclude explicit mention at this time. Light easterly winds will shift to the south and increase to 15-25 knots late Wed morning into Wed afternoon.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KITR
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITR
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KITR
Wind History graph: ITR
(wind in knots)
Goodland, KS,
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