Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

High pressure broadens out across the souther Plains which has blocked our moisture into place for another day. A weak 700mb frontogenesis band moved through during the morning hours which brought additional cloud cover back to western portions of the forecast area. Scattered to broken cloud cover is forecast to continue for most of the day which is forecast to help keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the forecast area.

A shortwave is forecast to move off of the Rockies. Severe weather may be possible again but similar to today not impressive as we may not be able to warm up enough for storms to sustain themselves and may not even reach the forecast area this afternoon due to the additional inhibition with this the cloud cover. I'm keeping storm chances in the forecast as our convective temperatures are fairly low only in the mid 70s which we we should be able to breach that with a little bit of clearing. Should any storms form or move into the area large hail around quarter size and wind gusts of 50-60 mph are the primary hazard. With anticyclonic hodographs if any storm were to exhibit supercellular nature left movers would be favored supporting more of the hail threat. Wind threat would be isolated given meager lapse rates. Some guidance also indicates a potential second zone of storms moving in from the Nebraska Panhandle/Cheyenne Ridge vicinity on the exit region of a weak 500mb jet. There could be some severe threat with this as well should it develop with the same hazards as before, although wind threat may be a tad bit higher. Not as concerned about flash flooding as previous days as storms will be a bit more confined and should be moving at a decent speed with Corfidi vectors around 25-40 knots. Am seeing the potential for some redevelopment across southwestern portions of the area across Cheyenne (CO) and Greeley county

Monday, overall a similar synoptic pattern is forecast to today with the only difference being a slightly more amplified developing ridge across the western CONUS. Due to the mid level high slightly expanding a bit further north I did nudge up our southern counties a few degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s versus the mid 80s for the remainder of the area. May need to watch for some even slightly higher temperatures across Cheyenne county Colorado as winds may become a bit more southwesterly during the afternoon with a developing low across Colorado as mixing may be a little bit stronger.

Another day and another chance for storms for the area Monday afternoon. A subtle convergence may be able to develop as high pressure is forecast to be across eastern Kansas and the above mentioned low pressure across Colorado develops. A conditional threat for the afternoon hours is seen during the afternoon hours along said convergence zone draped from roughly Wray down through Leoti. Do think a storm or two develops later in the afternoon hours as a subtle 500mb vorticity maxima within the northwest flow moves through. A bit better environment for large hail is seen as wind shear is forecast to be better than today around 30-35kts along with steeper lapse rates. Hail around ping pong ball to golf ball would be possible if we could get a sustained and deep updraft but quarters would be most likely along with 50-60 mph wind gusts. Any severe threat would wane after sunset as we lose diurnal heating. Winds from the southwest are forecast to continue through the night which may be able to help keep overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday, our southwest winds during the morning are forecast to lead to a rapid warmup as ridging amplifies some across the western CONUS. Our warmup should be short lived as a cold front is forecast to be situated across the northern Plains. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the 90s. If eastern portions of the area can remain in southwesterly flow then a run towards the triple digits could occur. `

During the afternoon a surface low is forecast to develop across eastern Colorado and lead to weaker winds for most with the exception being across the eastern CWA where winds are forecast to remain from the southwest. There remains some disagreement with low positioning as GEFS tries to pull it into western Kansas during the afternoon versus the ECMWF ensembles with the majority of it remaining in Colorado, but a few members does put it into Kansas. If it pulls east then any threat for rainfall and severe weather decreases, if it can remain to the west in Colorado then locales along and east of a Yuma to Goodland to Grinnell line has a chance of storms, possibly severe with the higher chance further east you go. A caveat top decreasing precipitation chances is the cold front crashing sooner which in itself could create some additional storms, but currently think would lead to more a wind threat given the linear forcing and meager wind shear since the low would theoretically be further away. Currently think the front moving through faster is the lesser of the scenarios at this time. Overall, current thinking is that the low remains in Colorado with the front moving through during the early to mid evening as a cluster of storms with wind the main concern.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Starting the extended period Tuesday, high pressure is forecast to continue to slightly extend northward across the area. The further north the high pressure can go then the warmer temperatures will be.
Current forecast has temperatures returning to the mid to upper 90s, but if the high pressure can remain a little further south then highs in the upper 80s to low 90s would be common. The position of high will also dictate precipation chances as well.
With the current forecast being on the warmer end this does decrease our precipitation chances as guidance indicates that a shortwave will develop on the northern periphery of the high.
If storms were to develop, they would turn severe with damaging winds the main threat as they form a cluster and move to the southeast. Currently should storms develop the northern and eastern portions of the area would be favored.

Wednesday, has a similar pattern but is more dictate by the development of a ridge across the western CONUS. Again guidance indicates another shortwave within the flow which could move into the area and possibly entire most if not the entire forecast area.
Current guidance indicates that shear is a little better around 35- 40 knots which could support a damaging wind and perhaps even large hail threat if storms don't grow upscale too quickly.
Those two days will need to be continued to be monitored.

Thursday, through the end of the forecast period indicates that another strong ridge will develop across the western CONUS as warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s return. The amplitude of the ridge will dictate how warm it gets and if precipitation chances occur as we may continue to reside on the eastern side of said ridge.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Lingering stratus from a weak front this morning remains for GLD; occasional MVFR ceilings look to continue through around 19Z but think they will become less frequent as the front moves further away from the terminal. Winds are forecast to back through the afternoon from the northeast to the southeast before becoming south-southwesterly overnight. Overall light winds around 5-10 knots are forecast to continue. Watching a 5-10% chance of a isolated storm more than likely in the vicinity of GLD this afternoon and around the same chance of a possible cluster of storms this evening. MCK should remain storm free. Am again seeing some hints of stratus for MCK Monday morning but am not currently confident on coverage. SW winds for GLD should mitigates stratus potential.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.