Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 357 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Today: Synoptic subsidence and surface pressure rises in the wake of a progressive mid-latitude cyclone tracking eastward across Ontario has driven a Canadian airmass SE-ESE from Saskatchewan into the Dakotas and Upper Midwest this morning. At 07 UTC this morning, the southern fringe of the Canadian airmass, characterized by 850 mb temps ~0 to -5C, extended southeastward from eastern MT into southeast SD. 00-06 UTC 02/28 operational guidance indicates that [1] the southern fringe of the Canadian airmass will more-or-less remain in place (at/near it's present location) through the afternoon and [2] that a poorly-defined MSLP to 850 mb height pattern will persist over the Tri-State Area. Expect sensible weather conditions analogous to yesterday with similar albeit slightly cooler highs in the mid-upper 60's to lower 70's, coolest in southwest Nebraska.

Tonight: Easterly low-level flow will advect the southern, increasingly modified fringe of the Canadian airmass (850 mb temps ~0 to +4C) into the Tri-State Area this evening and overnight. High resolution guidance indicates surface temperatures bottoming-out in the mid-upper 20's (north) to mid 30's (south) by sunrise.

Sunday: Strengthening SE low-level (~850 mb) flow / warm advection on the northeast periphery of a modest 850 mb low over the Raton Mesa will foster the development of low ceilings/ stratus around sunrise (12-15Z), mainly in northwest KS. 00-06 UTC 02/28 operational guidance indicates that SE low- level flow and warm advection will rapidly weaken and shift eastward into central and eastern KS during the late morning and early afternoon.. and that precipitation is unlikely to develop in the Goodland CWA, where a very dry airmass will be present and low- level warm advection will be short-lived. Precip forecasts via current and recent runs of high-resolution guidance are consistent with this line of reasoning (i.e. precip confined to central-eastern KS). If light precip were to develop in the Goodland CWA, it would most likely occur during the late morning (~15-18Z) and it would most likely be confined along/east of Hwy 283 (Norton/Graham counties), where and when vertical wetbulb profiles via forecast soundings indicate a prominent warm nose (+2 to +4C from ~4000 to 8000 ft AGL) atop a deep sub- freezing layer (as cold as -5C) in the lowest ~4000 ft AGL, suggesting sleet or freezing rain as a primary precipitation type. While forecast soundings indicate a dry, unsaturated airmass above the warm nose, in the ice nucleation zone (-10 to -12C isotherm level) increasing upper level cloud cover within 3000 to 5000 vertical feet of the dry mid-level airmass could potentially introduce ice via the 'seeder-feeder' mechanism.
Probabilistically, guidance indicates a ~10% chance for a trace of ice accumulation in Norton, Graham and eastern portions of Sheridan/Gove counties. Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs ranging from ~40F (Norton/Graham) to mid-upper 50's (eastern CO).

Sun night: Challenging forecast. Weak low-level (~850 mb) warm advection and modest moisture advection via light ESE to S surface winds will likely support/reinforce the development of low stratus (and possibly fog) over portions of northwest KS and southwest NE overnight. Forecast soundings suggest that stratus/saturation may be ~3000 ft in depth (increased potential for drizzle) over eastern portions of the area early Mon morning, particularly in Norton/Graham counties, where high resolution guidance also indicates below-freezing (29-31F)
surface wetbulb temperatures, i.e. a potential for freezing drizzle around, and shortly before, sunrise.

Monday: Low-level southerly return flow will foster a rapid warming trend. Temperatures are likely to rise above freezing within a few hours after sunrise.. with highs ranging from ~50F (Norton/Graham) to 60-65F (eastern CO). While low stratus (where present) should gradually lift during the late morning and afternoon.. a thick veil of orographically enhanced cirrus may still render overcast skies for much of the area. With little in the way of forcing during the day, precipitation is not expected prior to sunset.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 1248 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

Monday night will see the environment become primed for Tuesday's low and cold front. The low level persistent high over the eastern CONUS will promote efficient moisture advection into the Plains. In the mid layers, southwesterly flow still looks to cause a dry layer. This leads to a fairly shallow layer of moist air at the surface, likely leading to drizzle. NBM has been trying to keep temperatures across the area falling to below freezing by Tuesday morning. However, with the southerly moisture advection, which looks to keep dew points above freezing for most of the area, temperatures will likely remain above freezing. For locations that do drop below freezing for more than ~30 minutes, slick conditions should be expected as ice will start forming.

Tuesday, the the pattern changes as a low pushes through the western CONUS and over the High Plains. The surface low timing is pretty uncertain at this point as the ECMWF has it moving in around 3Z Tuesday, but the GFS and CMC-NH have it around 9-12Z Tuesday morning. The surface front will occur first throughout the column, leaving the mid layers dry. Behind the front, we can expect winds Tuesday to be gusting around 20-30 kts.

The rest of the column looks to saturate in the afternoon Tuesday, as the 500 mb low also enters. This will be the start of our better precipitation chances. However, the NBM shows a 50% chance of precipitation during the late morning. This is likely a combination of the potential for drizzle throughout the day if the inversion remains intact, the FROPA throughout the column occurs at the same time, or variance in ensemble member timing. PoPs are likely too high for Tuesday 12-21Z.

Overnight Tuesday currently looks like the to be the best chance of precipitation from the first low. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing, but there is a 30% chance sub- freezing temperatures occur. Surface and near surface temperatures will have a major impact on the P-type. As it stand, rain looks to dominate with occasional snow mixing in.
There are no clear cut signs of a warm nose during our potential freezing times, minimizing the potential for freezing rain or sleet.

Precipitation should be waning by sunrise Wednesday, exiting to the east. Come Thursday, we're looking at a system that's very similar to the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The main difference is the 850 mb low looks to be over the Northern Plains which leads to higher confidence we'll stay above freezing.

Temperatures throughout the long term are chaotic. Low temperatures look to remain around or above freezing through Thursday morning. Friday morning, we'll likely be seeing CAA over the area, causing temperatures to drop into the low 20s.
Highs will be on a warming trend through Thursday, peaking in the mid 60s to low 70s, then cooling and peaking around 50 for Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 410 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus above ~20,000 ft AGL) this afternoon. Light/variable or northerly winds will prevail through the majority of the day.
Winds will definitively shift to the E-ESE and increase to 13-18 knots shortly after sunset, with gusts to 20-25 knots possible during the evening. E-ESE winds will slowly veer to the ESE-SE by sunrise (~12Z) Sunday morning.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Clear skies will give way to increasing upper level cloud cover (cirrus above ~15,000 ft AGL) this afternoon. Light/variable winds will shift to the NW and increase to 12-18 knots late this morning (~17Z) and veer to the NNW-N this afternoon. Winds will definitively shift to the ENE-E and increase to 12-17 knots shortly after sunset, with gusts up to ~20-25 knots possible during the evening. ENE-E winds will slowly veer to the E-ESE by sunrise (~12Z) Sunday morning.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.