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FXUS63 KGLD 260920 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 320 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will shift to the NW and increase to 30-40 mph this afternoon. This may create hazardous travel conditions, especially for high profile vehicles. This includes the Interstate 70 corridor in eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Hazards similar to what the area received in the past 24 hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Across the Tri State region this morning, skies remain cloudy as a slow moving low pressure system continues to impact the area. There are some light scattered showers still over extreme eastern areas from yesterday round of severe wx. Temperatures as of 200 AM MDT are ranging widely from the upper 40s to the lower 50s west into the 50s and 60s east. The position of the low is allowing for winds to range mainly southerly along/east of Highway 25, and northerly west of there. This wind regime is impacting the current range in temps over the area.

Going into today and through the upcoming weekend, the main wx concerns will focus on some exiting showers and thunderstorms today from the slow exiting system, another round of severe wx for Saturday afternoon and evening for much of the CWA, with tapering precip to end off the weekend.

For Today/Tonight: the latest CAMs (NamNest, HRRR and RAP) all show a round of precipitation initiating through the day as the low over western Kansas lifts northeast. The latest RAP40 500mb analysis is showing an open wave which will lift in tandem with the surface feature, creating increased chances for precip. A strong amplified upper ridge over the east is the reason for the slow exit of this system. Based on model guidance, the best chances/pops(40-60%) will occur north of the Interstate. Weak DCape/MUCape suggest some thunder is possible, at least during the afternoon hours. As the low lifts out, the wrap-around gradient on the back side could bring gusts into the 30-40 mph range before tapering going into Saturday morning.

For this weekend: another surface low will form in the wake of the current exiting system during the day Saturday. A closed low at 500mb will accompany this surface feature Saturday afternoon/evening. With high pressure blocking both lows to the east, the weekend system will take a close track to the one currently leaving. Conditions are expected to drop considerably by the afternoon as storms develop along and north of the front ahead/east of the low. MUCape/DCape in the 500-1000j/kg range, 0-3km EHI showing enhancement along/north of the front is going to allow for strong to even severe storms to develop. Currently, SPC has a Slight Risk for severe wx with all hazards in play(similar to the past 24 hours). High localized PW values could also bring about localized heavy rainfall and combined with rain already fallen, could pose some hydro issues and will have to be monitored. The bulk of the precip is expected to taper Saturday night into Sunday morning w/ a slow clearing from south to north as the low exits north.

For temps, highs today will range widely from mainly the 60s north of the Interstate and 70s mainly south. Highs will be dependent on how fast the current low pressure system lifts out of the area/clouds clear from south to north.

Going into this weekend, a low pressure system and associated front on Saturday will provide another wide range with areas west of a line from Flagler, Colorado to Goodland, Kansas up to Culbertson, Nebraska in the 50s and 60s. East of there, mainly 70s. Numbers will be highly dependent on extent of cloud cover/storms. Cooler to end off the weekend with a range on Sunday in upper 50s to lower 60s west, into the mid 60s south and east.

Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s west into the mid 40s east, especially east of Highway 25. Temps trend slightly lower into the weekend with upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night, coldest areas along/west of Highway 27. Sunday night, mainly upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 128 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, there will be a general zonal flow aloft at 500mb at least for the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Going into Wednesday, a strong shortwave works out of the north central Rockies into the Plains region now of the CWA The low does exit slowly towards the Great Lks region for Thursday and Friday. This will give way mixed guidance with the GFS setting up NW flow aloft and eventually amplified ridging for the end of the week. The ECMWF keeps zonal flow over the area, with the Great Lks low pushing slowly towards the east coast, allowing for the passage of a weak shortwave Fri/Sat.

At the surface, lee-side troughing along the eastern slopes of the Rockies will help to enhance precipitation chances for the midweek system. Best dynamics will remain with the upper low north of the CWA Overall, will see some increased cloud cover mainly north Mon/Tue, with the lee-side trough forming a low at its base, and pushing into southwest Kansas. Easterly, upslope moist flow sets up over the area in time for the shortwave passage to our north, triggering chances(20-30%) for rw/trw. GFS PW values for the end of the week convection will range from 0.50"-1.00". Highest chances will be east of Highway 25. These chances are enhanced for Thu/Fri to keep areal coverage for rw/trw similar to the Wednesday chances.
Both models do show a strong ridge building off the north central Rockies in time for clearing going into next weekend.

For temps, highs on Monday will range in the 70s. Slightly warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, with mid 70s to lower 80s expected. Cooler air returns for the day Thursday with upper 60s to mid 70s for highs, and for next Friday, mid to upper 70s are expected.

Overnight lows Monday night will range from the lower 40s west to around 50F east. For Tuesday and Wednesday nights, 40s are expected with warmest areas east of Highway 25. Mid 40s for Thursday night will give way to a range on Friday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Adverse aviation conditions associated with occasional showers/storms, low ceilings and fog are anticipated at both terminals overnight.. with the relative greatest potential for thunderstorms at the MCK terminal. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR and VFR late Friday morning and early Friday afternoon. Low confidence in wind speed/direction overnight (winds may largely be variable).. as a lee cyclone in Colorado progresses eastward over western Kansas. Winds will shift to the W around or shortly after sunrise Friday morning, further shifting to the NW and strengthening to 30-40 knots Friday afternoon (~20-30 knots at MCK).. as the MSLP gradient tightens on the W and SW periphery of the deepening lee cyclone (tracking northeastward into Nebraska during the day). Winds will weaken AOA sunset Friday evening.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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