Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 1:17 PM   Moonset 1:15 AM

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ANZ355 Sandy Hook Nj To Fire Island Inlet Ny Out 20 Nm- 750 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening, then becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Showers and chance of tstms this evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 8 seconds and nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 8 seconds and N 2 ft at 3 seconds. Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 8 seconds and ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Mon night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 750 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 150024 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 824 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
The line of severe/marginally severe thunderstorms moved east of the watch area, and the watch has been cancelled. The line was moving into a more stable airmass, and the storms continues to slowly diminish.

A cold front will be pushing through the forecast area into this evening, shifting east of us overnight.

An isolated stronger storm remains possible early this evening, until the line pushes farther to the east into more stable air.
Also with tall/skinny CAPE will be present with PWATs expected to to climb up to around 1.6 inches and heavy rainfall remains possible, with a local flood threat, and a few flood advisories remain in effect.

Rain threat should be done by daybreak, with low temperatures mostly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and less muggy conditions as dewpoints fall to around 50. Both days look to feature mostly sunny conditions, with some cumulus development on Saturday and perhaps some cirrus streaming by on Sunday. Highs mostly around 80 on Saturday, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday for coastal areas as winds shift onshore.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The key point for the long term is that there is increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave in the middle to late next week with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F at times Tuesday through Friday.

Ongoing deep-layered ridging on Monday continues into at least Wednesday. Models show slight flattening of the ridge aloft with maybe a weak surface trough setting up for both Thursday and Friday.
Will continue to advertise dry weather through at least Thursday given the subsidence/capping working against whatever CAPE may manage to build up to. Slight chance/chance PoPs for Friday as per NBM. Still too early to have any confidence in any over-the-ridge convection spilling over into the forecast area for any of the days in the long term.

Based on global deterministic and ensemble guidance, best guess for 850mb temps for Monday are 16-17C, approaching 20C on Tuesday, then 20-21C Wednesday through Friday. After high temperatures of mostly 85-90 on Monday, highs mostly in the middle and upper 90s are expected away from the coast Tuesday through Friday. Although it's too soon to have high confidence in detailed heat indices during this period, at least advisory criteria would likely be met for a good portion of the forecast area starting on Tuesday given the current forecast. So far, models aren't indicating a very dry boundary layer each afternoon or west to NW surface winds, so these two factors would limit daytime mixing out of surface dewpoints.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The main band of showers and thunderstorms has worked east of the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. The area will continue to weaken and diminish in coverage while working across the eastern terminals the next couple of hours. A band of light showers will follow, but should be brief. Actual cold front works from west to east across the area from around 04Z at KSWF to 09Z at KGON.

Mainly a VFR forecast outside of any heavier showers. Winds will go light and variable. There is small chance that some patchy fog and a brief IFR/LIFR ceiling develops before northerly winds increase behind the cold front. There is also a chance for a few gusts 15-20kt behind the cold front, but that is more likely after 12Z Saturday. Gusts diminish in the later afternoon Saturday as high pressure works in from the Great Lakes.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A brief shower is possible the first half of the night. Northerly wind gusts could develop sooner than forecast behind the cold front overnight, but should not be frequent until late morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25kt ahead of an approaching cold fronts, otherwise, sub- advisory conditions outside of any thunderstorms, which may be strong to severe.

For the weekend through Monday, sub-advisory conditions prevail.
There may be a chance of a few S-SW gusts to 25kt and seas approaching 5 ft each afternoon/early evening for Mon-Wed on the ocean west of Fire Island inlet. SCAs probably won't be needed for each day.

HYDROLOGY
The heaviest rains have moved into portions of southwestern Connecticut and into Nassau county. A few flood advisories remain across Rockland county, Southern Westchester county, and into Southern Fairfield county where up to 2 to 2 1/2 inches of rain has fallen. With the storms weakening farther to the east the heavy rainfall threat will be diminishing.

Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1.50 inches, with pockets of 2-plus inches possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Long Beach (outer coast)
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Fri -- 01:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:43 AM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:40 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Beach (outer coast), Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:19 AM EDT     0.83 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:59 PM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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