Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lido Beach, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A flattening ridge in the 500mb pattern shifts towards us today, with surface high pressure building to our south. Mainly sunny with perhaps some cirrus streaming in from the west by late in the day.
The sunshine and westerly winds will help push high temperatures back up to near normal - mostly 65-70, which is around 5 degrees warmer than what was observed yesterday.

Increasing cirrus tonight, and with a light WSW wind, tonight's low temperatures will be warmer than last night's - ranging from around 50 across the northern zones to the upper 50s in the city.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cold front passes through the area Saturday morning with moisture limited to the upper levels, so no showers occur with its passage over here. Although 850mb temperatures fall to 7-8C in the afternoon behind the front, WNW-NW downslope winds should add a little compressional heating. Have therefore bumped up the deterministic NBM by a few degrees in most spots. Highs in the upper 70s for the typically warmest spots in NE NJ and some areas in the city, with lower to middle 70s elsewhere.

Saturday night will feature a zonal flow in the 500mb longwave pattern, however 850-700mb moisture and shortwave lift approach us from the west late at night. This along with decent isentropic lift could produce showers NW of the city by the end of the night. The longwave pattern then begins to amplify on Sunday courtesy of an upper jet streak diving south from central Canada along with a 500mb shortwave shifting into the Great Lakes region. These in turn will energize a surface low shifting east across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley regions. Models disagree as to where the center of this low eventually tracks, but favor a path north of us.
This scenario would then send a cold front into the forecast area late Sunday night. Rain chances generally increase through the day with the higher chances over the northern zones. Then as the cold front approaches and a low level jet increases offshore, rain becomes likely Sunday night. Won't include thunder in the forecast just yet during Sunday night, but upward forcing with the llj combined with a little elevated instability and progged conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates may contribute a rumble of thunder mainly east of the city. NBM was used for temperatures Saturday night through Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The the cold front continues to move through the forecast area into early Monday morning, pushing offshore later in the morning into the early afternoon. This far out of course, there are timing differences among the models. This will lead to some lingering showers, mainly for eastern locations, with perhaps a slight chance of showers for most other locations Monday morning.

Low pressure associated with the cold front treks into southeastern Canada as high pressure from the center of the US slowly builds in at the surface and troughing sets up aloft for the eastern third of the country, which amplifies as head into the midweek period. This will allow for a continued period of cold air advection from Monday through Wednesday, leading to the coldest airmass of the early fall season thus far. Then surface high pressure builds to the south and a return flow sets up with temperatures moderating for Thursday.

Temperatures will be near normal on Monday, then drop to 5 to 10 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with high temperatures hard pressed to break 60 on both days. Slightly warmer, but still below normal highs are expected for Thursday. Lows during this time frame will be in the 30s and 40s. If winds let up enough, some isolated locations in the outlying areas could drop to freezing or slightly below. Frost therefore is a possibility, however there is a good deal of uncertainty in both how low temperatures will drop as well as wind speeds and any cloud cover, and there is thus uncertainty in where any frost will develop at this time.



AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure builds through this morning, settling nearby late in the day. A cold front approaches tonight.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds remain NW overnight at less than 10 kt. Wind speeds resume near 10 kt for most terminals by late this morning, shifting to the W then WSW to SW (mainly for coastal terminals, inland terminals will remain more W) into this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. WSW winds, becoming SW for some terminals.

Saturday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20kt during the day.

Sunday: VFR for much of the day, SE / S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers with possible MVFR late and mainly at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR, brief MVFR possible early in showers. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 15 to 20 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions today with a NW to W flow under 15kt.
Westerly winds then pick up tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The front shifts through Saturday morning, then veering winds become lighter through the rest of the day. Expecting advisory- level conditions on the ocean starting this evening and lasting into Saturday, so SCAs have been issued accordingly. There could be occasional gusts to 25kt over central and eastern LI Sound, but will hold off on an advisory. Winds further subside Saturday night, then a probable return to SCA conds on the ocean for Sunday in advance of an approaching low pressure system and cold front.

Small craft conditions on at least the ocean waters lasting into Monday as a cold front moves through. Gusts of 25 to 30 kt are likely on the ocean, and possible on all other waters. Waves of 4 to 8 ft on the ocean waters begin to slowly diminish Monday afternoon, not falling to below 5 ft by Monday night into Tuesday morning (mainly for the eastern ocean waters).

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns expected through the middle of next week..

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Saturday for ANZ355.